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Gold slumps, GLD and miners take lumps

The record-breaking rise in gold stalled Tuesday, with prices tumbling.

The sudden downdraft hammered popular plays on the price such as the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, the largest gold ETF, which is poised for its biggest daily drop since April 2013 as of 11:52 a.m. ET.

Miners like Newmont Corp., Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Anglogold Ashanti are similarly getting whacked along with a host of speculative, high-beta momentum trades.

While there’s no clear reason for the slump, theories and contributing factors may include:

  • Social media chatter about gold — which coincided with a spike in options activity — cooling off considerably, according to data provided by SwaggyStocks. JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain notes that retail demand for commodity ETFs has reversed course: after routinely registering in the upper 90th percentiles much of last week, it’s in just the 2nd percentile relative to its one-year average as of 11:00 a.m. ET, with retail having pulled more than $50 million from these products.

  • Less safe haven demand now amid a seeming reduction in China-US tensions.

  • A seasonal drop in demand out of India — the world’s second-largest gold market after China — that typically follows Diwali.

  • Jitters about the fact that weekly CFTC positioning data on the futures market, one of the best sources of hard data on the gold market, continues to be unavailable as a result of the US government shutdown.

But even after today’s slump, gold prices, as measured by New York futures prices, are up about 60% in 2025.

While there’s no clear reason for the slump, theories and contributing factors may include:

  • Social media chatter about gold — which coincided with a spike in options activity — cooling off considerably, according to data provided by SwaggyStocks. JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain notes that retail demand for commodity ETFs has reversed course: after routinely registering in the upper 90th percentiles much of last week, it’s in just the 2nd percentile relative to its one-year average as of 11:00 a.m. ET, with retail having pulled more than $50 million from these products.

  • Less safe haven demand now amid a seeming reduction in China-US tensions.

  • A seasonal drop in demand out of India — the world’s second-largest gold market after China — that typically follows Diwali.

  • Jitters about the fact that weekly CFTC positioning data on the futures market, one of the best sources of hard data on the gold market, continues to be unavailable as a result of the US government shutdown.

But even after today’s slump, gold prices, as measured by New York futures prices, are up about 60% in 2025.

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Oracle gains amid report that the TikTok deal is poised to close this week

Oracle is gaining in premarket trading as Semafor reports that China and the US have signed off on the sale of TikTok’s US operations to a consortium in which the software giant is one of the three leading investors.

The transaction is poised to close this week, per the report, citing people familiar with the situation.

In mid-December, Oracle booked a huge gain after the CEO of TikTok owner ByteDance indicated that he’d signed contracts with Oracle and the other major investors leading this consortium, private equity firm Silver Lake and Abu Dhabi-backed tech investment company MGX.

If, as previous reporting suggested, the transaction values TikTok’s US operations at about $14 billion, that would mark a fairly low price tag for a lot of eyeballs and ad dollars. This pact will also afford Oracle’s cloud business an opportunity to deepen its preexisting relationship with TikTok.

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Abbott slumps after reporting sales miss, disappointing Q1 guidance

Abbott Laboratories fell in premarket trading after it reported fourth-quarter sales that missed Wall Street estimates and gave disappointing guidance for the current quarter.

The company said it expects to report first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of between $1.12 and $1.18, below the $1.20 analysts polled by FactSet were expecting. For the full year, it expects to report adjusted earnings per share of $5.55 to $5.80, in line with the $5.67 the Street is penciling in.

Abbott also reported $11.5 billion in sales for the fourth quarter, less than the analyst consensus of $11.8 billion. The sales miss was driven by lower-than-expected sales of its medical devices, its largest segment. Its profits for the quarter hit $1.50 per share, right in line with expectations.

The stock fell more than 5% in premarket trading on Thursday.

GE Aerospace Jet Engines

GE Aerospace posts better than expected Q4 results and surprisingly strong full-year profit guidance

GE Aerospace had a strong 2025, rising roughly 85% to outpace both the S&P 500 and industry benchmarks.

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Goldman hikes year-end gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce as private investors and central banks compete for the shiny stuff

Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce, up from the previous $4,900 target, citing strong demand from private sector investors using gold as a hedge against global policy risks, according to a note released late Tuesday.

The revised price target reflects a 17% increase from January's month-to-date average price, with continued central bank buying as the biggest driver of the forecast (accounting for 14pp of the expected appreciation), while ETF inflows add another 3pp — supported by an assumed Fed rate cut this year.

Central banks have been on a gold-buying spree since 2022, after the freezing of Russia's foreign reserves, helping push prices up 15% in 2023 and 26% in 2024. But Goldman analysts note that the rally accelerated in 2025 as competition between central banks and private investors for the limited bullion intensified — driving prices up another 67% last year, with recent tensions over Greenland only adding to the momentum.

That private-sector demand now extends well beyond ETF inflows. Goldman says buying is increasingly coming from a new class of investors seeking protection against macro-policy risk and currency "debasement," including purchases from high-net-worth families and call-option buying — flows that are "hard to track" but have become a "significant incremental source of demand."

Goldman assumes these macro-related "sticky" hedges will persist through 2026 — unlike those tied to the 2024 US election, which unwound quickly once the outcome was clear.

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Alibaba jumps on report of a potential IPO for its AI chipmaking division

Alibaba ADRs are up 5% in premarket trading on Thursday after Bloomberg reported that the cloud and e-commerce giant is preparing to list its chipmaking division, looking to capitalize on strong investor interest in AI.

Citing people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg wrote that the Chinese tech giant is looking to first restructure the unit, known as T-Head, into a partially employee-owned business before exploring an IPO, though the specific timing for this process remains uncertain.

Though Alibaba’s IPO plans are still at an early stage, with T-Head’s valuation expectations still unclear, recent debuts by rival Chinese chipmakers like Moore Threads Technology have attracted strong interest from investors, jumping over 400% on its first day after raising $1.13 billion.

Alibaba has also been investing aggressively into AI in the past year, committing more than $53 billion to develop its cloud and AI infrastructure. Last week, the company upgraded Qwen — its flagship AI app — to function more like an agentic chatbot able to place orders for food, book travel, and execute other tasks, as the company pushes further into consumer-facing AI.

Though Alibaba’s IPO plans are still at an early stage, with T-Head’s valuation expectations still unclear, recent debuts by rival Chinese chipmakers like Moore Threads Technology have attracted strong interest from investors, jumping over 400% on its first day after raising $1.13 billion.

Alibaba has also been investing aggressively into AI in the past year, committing more than $53 billion to develop its cloud and AI infrastructure. Last week, the company upgraded Qwen — its flagship AI app — to function more like an agentic chatbot able to place orders for food, book travel, and execute other tasks, as the company pushes further into consumer-facing AI.

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