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President Trump drops the big billboard of tariffs on “Liberation Day” (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Trump Always Raises Tariffs

From TACO to TART? US stock futures sink as Trump threatens blanket 15% to 20% tariffs

Will markets move away from TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) toward TART (Trump Always Raises Tariffs)?

7/11/25 5:28AM

S&P 500 futures careened lower on Thursday evening after President Donald Trump suggested that he’s mulling blanket tariffs of 15% to 20% (versus the current 10%) in an NBC interview.

That was shortly followed by a Truth Social post from the president imposing tariffs of 35% on imports from Canada effective August 1, though this reportedly includes an exemption for USMCA-compliant goods, per Bloomberg. Trump also told NBC that EU members will be getting tariff letters today.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF, which tracks the benchmark US equity index, is down about 0.6% in premarket trading on Friday.

The “Trump Always Chickens Out” or (TACO) thesis has largely carried the day in explaining the market’s continued resilience ever since the April 9 pause and watering down of reciprocal tariffs vindicated buy-the-dip strategies.

To be clear, that includes what’s happening now, so far: S&P 500 futures are down not even 1% from all-time highs. Without the April imposition of tariffs and swift postponement of the worst of those measures, an announcement like Thursday night’s would likely have evoked a much more negative market reaction.

TACO is a thesis that’s worked incredibly well, zooming in on our recent lived market experience.

Zooming out, TART — Trump Always Raises Tariffs — is another enduring reality that investors have to navigate when the real estate mogul and former reality star is in residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

When Trump is in office, US tariff rates go up. And they’ve gone up much, much more during Trump 2.0 (through May!) than they did in the totality of Trump 1.0.

“While the TACO phenomenon is narrowly correct (i.e. the president does tend to postpone decisions), it may also be turning increasingly obsolete (for focusing too narrowly on short-term implementation deadlines rather than the long-term trajectory of US tariff rates),” Andrew Bishop, Signum Global Research’s global head of policy research, wrote in a prescient July 8 note.

Whether this reality is enough to leave a bigger dent in the outlook for S&P 500 profits (with 12-month forward earnings at all-time highs) or multiples (at the high end of their long-term range) is something that traders will continue to wrestle with over the coming days and weeks.

Matt Phillips

Duolingo up on bullish note, hopes for a user rebound

Duolingo rose by the most in nearly a month, as an analyst note painted a more bullish picture of the gamified language learning company despite a dearth of news otherwise.

A quick check-in with analysts covering the stock on Wall Street found most of them otherwise flummoxed on the reason behind the uptick Thursday.

Some, however, suggested the rise may reflect optimism that the company has been able to reverse a months-long downturn in daily active user metrics — a slump that set in after a social media backlash to a somewhat inartful LinkedIn post from the company about its AI first strategy.

The bullish analyst note, published Thursday by Citizens JMP, suggested Duolingo could be a big beneficiary from a change to Apple’s rules governing its App Store driven by a ruling on a Federal antitrust case against the company. The analysts wrote:

Apple’s recent changes to U.S. App Store rules that allow developers to steer payments to the web where fees are similar to typical credit card fees rather than Apple’s 30% fee for in -app purchases and 30% fee on subscriptions for the first year and 15% thereafter, we expect mobile app companies including Duolingo, Life360, and Grindr Inc. to unlock meaningful cost benefits.

At any rate, the next big event on the company’s calendar is its Duocon 2025 conference on Tuesday, where analysts are hoping to hear more hard information on all of the above topics.

Max Knoblauch

36m

Jeep maker Stellantis surges as CEO says the automaker is in productive tariff talks with the US

Shares of Jeep and Dodge maker Stellantis are up more than 8% in Thursday afternoon trading, following comments from the automaker’s new CEO, Antonio Filosa, at a European auto conference.

On tariffs, Filosa said that Stellantis has had a “very productive exchange of ideas” with the Trump administration on the company’s manufacturing footprint and that the environment around the levies is “getting clearer and clearer.”

The US is Stellantis’ top priority, according to Filosa, and the company has taken efforts to turn things around in the market, where it’s struggled with sales in recent years. To fuel the turnaround, Stellantis is bringing back its popular Jeep Cherokee, which it discontinued in 2023.

As of 12:45 p.m. ET, Stellantis’ trading volume was at more than 140% of its average over the past 30 days.

Matt Phillips

Tempus AI jumps on FDA clearance of AI-enabled tool to analyze cardiac MRIs

Tempus AI, a midcap medical diagnostics company that’s highlighted a push to incorporate AI technology into its products, surged on Thursday after announcing the FDA had issued a “510(k) clearance” of a new AI-enabled tool to analyze cardiac imagery from MRIs.

A 510(k) clearance — used for devices that are considered relatively low risk — essentially allows a product to be sold in the US.

While the company has never turned a profit, even on an adjusted basis, its sales are growing rapidly and the stock has had a great year, rising more than 160% in 2025.

For more on the company, check out our interview with its CEO, Eric Lefkofsky.

Tempus Receives U.S. FDA Special 510(k) Clearance for Updated Tempus Pixel Device

While the company has never turned a profit, even on an adjusted basis, its sales are growing rapidly and the stock has had a great year, rising more than 160% in 2025.

For more on the company, check out our interview with its CEO, Eric Lefkofsky.

Luke Kawa

Micron surges as Citi boosts price target to $175

Micron is on the move this morning, gapping higher and continuing to trade up double digits after Citi boosted its view on how much the shares can run.

Analyst Christopher Danely raised his price target on the memory chipmaking specialist to $175 from $150, while maintaining a “buy” rating. The average analyst price target of $151 has now been shattered by Micron’s rise today, and the stock is trading at its highest level since June 2024.

This continues Micron’s advance as OpenAI’s dogged determination to burn through cash to enhance its AI capabilities provides a broad lift to the space, punctuated by Oracle’s massive gain on Wednesday.

Call demand is running hot: just 13 minutes into the session, volumes are running at 106,157 compared to a 20-day average of 88,888.

Micron is slated to report quarterly results on September 23.

J. Edward Moreno

Centene rises after affirming full-year guidance

Centene soared in early trading after affirming its full-year guidance ahead of the Deutsche Bank 2025 Healthcare Summit on Thursday.

The company reiterated its expectation for adjusted diluted earnings per share to be approximately $1.75. At the conference, Centene executives also said they expect a higher percentage of its Medicare enrollees to be on more lucrative, top-rated plans next year, according to Bloomberg.

Earlier this week, UnitedHealth also reiterated its guidance and said it expects to have more top-rated plans in the coming year. The government rates insurance companies offering Medicare Advantage plans, and higher-rated plans are eligible for bonuses that can significantly increase a plan’s revenue.

Insurance companies that sell government-sponsored plans took a dive earlier this year amid unexpected rising costs. The recent announcements from both Centene and UnitedHealth may be a sign that the worst is behind them.