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Eli Lilly rises after earnings, sales blow past Wall Street’s expectations

The company sold $6.5 billion worth of Mounjaro in this most recent quarter, $1 billion more than the Street was expecting.

J. Edward Moreno

Eli Lilly rose after it reported earnings and revenue that beat Wall Street expectations, driven by better-than-expected sales of its blockbuster diabetes shot Mounjaro.

The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $7.02, compared to the $5.89 analysts polled by FactSet were expecting. It also reported $17.6 billion in sales, versus the $16 billion the Street was penciling in. Both its top- and bottom-line results were better than every analyst polled by Bloomberg had projected.

The drugmaker’s sales growth is largely driven by its diabetes and weight-loss shots, Mounjaro and Zepbound. The company sold $6.5 billion worth of Mounjaro in the latest quarter, $1 billion more than the Street was expecting.

Lilly raised its full-year adjusted profit outlook to between $23 and $23.70 per share, up from its previous guidance of $21.75 to $23 a share. It now expects annual revenue to hit between $63 billion and $63.5 billion, up from its previous guidance of $60 billion to $62 billion. 

Tirzepatide, the active ingredient in Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound, is now the most-sold medicine in the world, surpassing Merck’scancer therapy, Keytruda, this year.

But despite having some of the bestselling pharmaceuticals on the market, the company is underperforming the broader market for the year, as uncertainty over tariffs and drug pricing roils the industry.

The company has doubled down on direct-to-consumer sales for Zepbound, its popular weight-loss drug that is often not covered by insurance. It offers cheaper cash-pay versions for patients bypassing insurance, and Wednesday announced it would partner with Walmart to distribute the drug.

Brian Mulberry, a portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, said that while Lilly's fundamentals are solid, expectations remain high. In its last quarterly report, its earnings beat was overshadowed by trial results that disappointed Wall Street.

"For an investor, this appears like a growth-at-a-premium story: the rewards could be substantial if execution remains strong and the pipeline delivers, but the risks are elevated given high expectations and external headwinds," Mulberry said.

The search for the next blockbuster weight-loss drug is well underway, with Lilly, Novo and several others working on new injectables and the next frontier: pills, which are cheaper to manufacture and could be more inviting for those scared of needles.

Meanwhile, Novo andPfizer are in a bidding war for Metsera, a small biotech working on next-gen GLP-1s.

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US gas prices surge, with prediction markets implying >$4 per gallon by the end of March

Pain at the pump is intensifying as the ongoing war in the Middle East pressures supplies.

US average national gas prices rose to $3.45 per gallon on Sunday, according to data from the American Automobile Association, and are up more than 15% since the kinetic conflict started.

“Given Sunday evening’s data and the continued surge in oil prices, I believe there is roughly an 80% chance the national average price of gasoline reaches $4 per gallon within the next month- or sooner,” wrote Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, in a post on Substack on Sunday evening. “In the immediate term, the national average of $3.45 per gallon could climb to roughly $3.75–$3.95 this week alone.”

Prediction markets currently expect prices to end the month around $4.30 to $4.50. On Friday, the prediction market-implied likely range for prices was between $3.60 and $3.70.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Report: Boeing could unveil 500-jet order from China during Trump’s visit later this month

Shares of Boeing are up nearly 4% on Friday afternoon, following a Bloomberg report that the company could be close to finalizing a deal to sell 500 planes to China.

The deal was first reported in August and would be one of Boeing’s largest ever.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

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