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Earnings season has been phenomenal, and it’s done nothing for the average stock

“The average stock has not moved on earnings this season, which is on the weaker side of the historical distribution,” writes Bespoke Investment Group.

Luke Kawa

Earnings season has been stellar. Traders’ reactions to earnings have been anything but.

Bespoke Investment Group has an excellent series of charts spotlighting just how positive this third-quarter corporate reporting period has been, with exceptional beat rates and guidance hikes across US stocks:

Q3 2025 earnings season stats
Source: Bespoke Investment Group

However, despite 73.5% of companies tracked by Bespoke beating on earnings per share this quarter, the analysts noted that earnings reactions have “been a completely different story.”

In particular, earnings beats have been rewarded with tepid gains, and companies that lowered their outlook were severely punished for a second consecutive season.

“The average stock has not moved on earnings this season, which is on the weaker side of the historical distribution,” they added.

Q3 2025 Earnings Season Stock Reaction
Source: Bespoke Investment Group

If I had to explain why stocks haven’t responded positively to robust results with guidance to match, I’d turn to the recent past.

Ahead of earnings season, September was the third-best month of 2025 for the SPDR S&P 500 Trust, trailing only the May and June recovery from the tariff-induced meltdown in markets and subsequent softening of trade tensions. The three-month growth in 12-month forward earnings per share ahead of earnings season (4.9%) was the strongest it’s been since 2021, when corporate profitability was getting a powerful boost as economic reopening was met by consumers flush with excess spending power.

While these are still more the exceptions than the rules, you can point to episodic examples of stocks that were on an absolute tear into Q3 earnings — Palantir and Micron come to mind — that posted beats and raised guidance only to drop in the wake of these results. The combination of how well stocks had done heading into this reporting period and how much forward expectations were getting revised higher provided a very difficult bar to clear, and made it much more punishing for those who came up short.

In other words, a strong Q3 earnings season... was priced in.

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Data center trade deep in the red

The data center trade is seeing its steepest sell-off since the market rout that was ignited by President Donald Trump’s Rose Garden tariff announcement back in April.

Goldman Sachs’ themed basket of AI data center shares was down more than 6% at around 12 p.m. ET, putting it on track for its worst day since the tariff announcement.

Losses hammered seemingly every form of input needed for the sprawling concrete server warehouses at the heart of the investment boom.

Hardware makers including data storage companies like Sandisk, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology Holdings, as well as DRAM maker Micron — some of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year — were taking a licking, as were networking stocks Cisco and Arista Networks and data center builders such as Vertiv Holdings and electrical and mechanical contractor Emcor.

Optimism for all things AI has seemed to evaporate throughout the week, as the stock market greeted lackluster quarterly numbers from Oracle and Broadcom with jittery sell-offs and concern about growing debts that could crater cash flows.

Those worries seem to be spreading to ancillary beneficiaries of the AI boom on Friday, gouging a chunk out of charts that retail dip buyers have not — at least so far — stepped in to buy as we head into the weekend.

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Oracle denies Bloomberg report that it’s delaying some data centers for OpenAI to 2028 from 2027

Getting a multi-hundred-billion-dollar backlog for cloud computing revenues from data center projects is easy. Building them is hard.

Oracle extended declines to as much as -6.5% on the day on the heels of a Bloomberg report that the cloud giant has pushed back the completion dates for some of the data centers it’s building for OpenAI to 2028 from 2027, citing people familiar with the work. Oracle denied this report, telling Reuters that there have been no delays to any sites required to meet its contractual commitments and that all milestones remain on track.

Shares had fully pared their report-induced drop ahead of Oracle’s reply, but remain in the red for the day.

Bloomberg said the reported postponement was attributed to labor and material shortages.

Oracle has been spending more on capex than Wall Street had anticipated, leading to higher-than-expected cash burn. Management boosted its full-year capital spending plans by $15 billion after reporting Q2 results earlier this week.

Oracle’s cloud infrastructure sales came in short of estimates in its fiscal 2026 Q2, a signal that markets already had reason to doubt its ability to quickly turn its humungous RPO (that is, remaining purchase obligations) into revenues.

Traders also seem to be of the mind that potential delays to data center completions are going to limit sales for what goes into them.

Some of the bigger losers since the Bloomberg headline hit the wires include:

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Broadcom’s post-earnings tumble is weighing on Google’s entire AI ecosystem

Broadcom’s post-earnings plunge is prompting a sharp pullback in Google-linked AI stocks, which had been on fire thanks to the warm reception to Gemini 3.

The stocks getting hit hard:

A basket of these Google-linked AI stocks compiled by Morgan Stanley is suffering one of its worst losses of the year. This brisk retreat also follows the release of GPT-5.2 by OpenAI.

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Citi initiates coverage of Planet Labs with “buy” rating

Planet Labs was up after aerospace and defense analysts at Citi initiated coverage with a “buy/high risk” rating and $19 price target.

The stock is up more than 40% this week, after a strong earnings result that spotlighted the company’s growing opportunity in linking its core business of capturing daily images of the planet with AI technologies.

Citi analysts noted the potential for a positive flywheel effect for Planet Labs as it deepens its focus on integrating AI into its offerings:

“AI is accelerating the conversion of pixels to decisions, where Planet’s daily scan and deep archive offer a uniquely large training corpus and broad-area foundation for automation. AI-enabled solutions (MDA/GMS/AMS) are gaining traction with customers such as NATO and the U.S. DoW, validating the approach of integrating AI into broad-area monitoring products... These AI moves create a compounding advantage: more coverage generates more training data, which improves models, which in turn increases product utility and addressable demand.”

The stock has also caught the attention of some of the retail trading crowd, with call options activity spiking on Thursday as traders rode the market reaction to the results.

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