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Disney dips on weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue amid its longest-ever TV blackout

...and you’re watching Disney Channel.

The happiest place on Earth is feeling pretty meh today. Disney’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report came out on Thursday, and investors — a variation of Disney adult, you could say — didn’t exactly cheer the results, with shares sliding 3.4% as of 7:24 a.m. ET.

The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.11, below last year, but higher than Wall Street estimates of $1.05 per share.

Looking ahead, Disney said it expects streaming profit of $375 million for its quarter ending in December. For the full fiscal year, it expects adjusted profit per share to grow by double digits. Disney said it would double its share buyback target to $7 billion for its 2026 fiscal year.

The entertainment giant also posted:

  • $22.46 billion in total revenue in its fourth quarter, short of analyst estimates of $22.76 billion (compiled by FactSet) and roughly flat relative to the same period last year.

  • $3.48 billion in Q4 operating income across its three operating segments (Entertainment, Experiences, and Sports), just shy of Wall Street expectations of $3.51 billion.

  • $352 million in Q4 streaming profit, up 39% from the same quarter last year. For its full fiscal year, ended September, Disney reported streaming profit of $1.33 billion, more than 9x the year prior.

  • $10 billion in full-year operating profit for its Experiences unit, which includes parks. Disney’s domestic parks profit grew 9% to $920 million on the quarter.

Across its direct-to-consumer and streaming offerings, the studio reported 218.3 million global subscribers as of the end of September, in line with expectations but down about 8% from last year. That number was likely impacted by the company’s decision toward the end of the quarter to pull Jimmy Kimmel’s late-night talk show off the air for a week. A report from Antenna Research found that roughly 7.1 million subscribers canceled their Disney+ and Hulu subscriptions during that month, far above the three-month average cancellation rate of those services.

Last month, Disney boosted the monthly cost of its flagship streaming service by $3 for the ad-free tier — its fourth price hike in four years. The service now costs 172% more than it did six years ago.

On the linear television side, Disney is embroiled in its longest carriage dispute ever, with YouTube TV. The blackout has been ongoing since October 30, surpassing Disney’s standoff with DirecTV last year for its longest stalemate. Two consecutive weeks of ESPN’s Monday Night Football haven’t been available on the pay-TV provider, which is expected to pass Comcast as the largest US pay-TV service next year.

According to Morgan Stanley, Disney is losing about $4.3 million per day during the dispute, which entered its 14th day on Thursday. The New York Times reported that Disney CEO Bob Iger and Google CEO Sundar Pichai have become more involved in the talks amid pressure from FCC Chair Brendan Carr.

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Report: Boeing could unveil 500-jet order from China during Trump’s visit later this month

Shares of Boeing are up nearly 4% on Friday afternoon, following a Bloomberg report that the company could be close to finalizing a deal to sell 500 planes to China.

The deal was first reported in August and would be one of Boeing’s largest ever.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

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Why software shares are withstanding the war jitters

The outbreak of the war in Iran has clearly rattled investors and created a few clear winners — mostly energy stocks — and losers — consumer staples, airlines, and, well, more or else everything else.

But there is one interesting outlier to that Manichaean market dynamic.

Software shares — often the same companies that the market was giving up for dead just a few weeks ago due to overexpectations of an AI-driven disruption — have been holding up remarkably well.

These companies, including Intuit, ServiceNow, Datadog, Snowflake, IBM, Workday, and Oracle, have actually had a pretty decent run since the war started with a combined US-Israeli attack on Iran last weekend.

A new note from RBC Capital’s Rishi Jaluria suggests this isn’t just a fluke. Looking at the performance of software stocks during periods of geopolitical stress and market volatility over the last 10 and 25 years, his team found that software shares appear fairly well insulated when these broader shocks hit. RBC wrote:

“The defensive nature of SaaS models and the mission-critical nature of many core software systems at the enterprise level (e.g., in the absence of mass layoffs that may create seat-based headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty and/or market volatility typically will not cause an enterprise CIO to consider ripping out their ERP, CRM, Cyber systems, etc.”

I briefly got Jaluria on the phone yesterday, and he explained a bit more about why he thinks investors might see software as a decent place to hide out from the current chaos.

“With everything in the Middle East, you have to think about not just oil and gas input prices but also supply chains,” he said. “With software, you’re not really thinking about that.”

In other words, there is no equivalent of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz that software investors have to worry about.

Others suggested that the near-term profitability of these giant software companies — aside from concerns about potential long-term disruption from AI — may look different in the face of the economic uncertainty that seems to be growing with the war, especially after a sell-off that has left them relatively attractively valued.

Mark Moerdler, who covers software stocks for Bernstein Research, says that while the AI worries are clearly real, software companies continue to be highly productive cash cows.

“Everyone is afraid that AI is a massive disruptor, and all these articles you read talk about AI as massive disruptor or the world is ending or whatever,” he said. “You don’t see it in the fundamental numbers of the companies I cover. They are delivering GAAP profits, free cash flow, and they’re good investment ideas.”

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