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Defense stocks dive, then surge, after Trump calls for record $1.5 trillion defense budget following payout threats

Major defense stocks saw a dramatic V-shaped turn in after-hours trading Wednesday after President Trump called for a record military budget, reversing losses just hours after nosediving on threats to curb industry buybacks and dividends.

The more bullish mood has carried into early trading this morning, with US stocks including Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and L3Harris Technologies up as much as ~7% as of 6:50 a.m. ET, while Huntington Ingalls Industries, Boeing, General Dynamics, and RTX also made more modest gains. European defense players also hit multi-month highs, with Britain’s biggest aerospace and defense company, BAE Systems, rising more than 6% as investors digested the spending idea.

The surge follows Trump’s proposal for a record $1.5 trillion US military budget for 2027, shared on Truth Social late Wednesday, which he said would help build a Dream Military in very troubled and dangerous times. The budget would represent a 66% jump from the $901 billion budget authorized for 2026.

Earlier in yesterday’s session, however, defense equities were under pressure — with Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman both falling as much as ~5% — after Trump said he would not permit dividends or stock buybacks for defense companies until they accelerate equipment deliveries. In a Truth Social post, Trump complained that military equipment was “NOT BEING MADE FAST ENOUGH — urging executives to build NEW and MODERN Production plants while criticizing their pay packages as exorbitant and unjustifiable.

This idea was quickly formalized in a White House executive order, which states that “effective immediately,” large defense contractors “are not permitted in any way, shape, or form to pay dividends or buy back stock, until such time as they are able to produce a superior product, on time and on budget.” Whether the president has the power to enact restrictions on capital allocation on private companies remains unclear.

The swing in defense shares comes days after the US military’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, which had buoyed energy and defense stocks as investors price in elevated risk and potential access to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.

Earlier in yesterday’s session, however, defense equities were under pressure — with Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman both falling as much as ~5% — after Trump said he would not permit dividends or stock buybacks for defense companies until they accelerate equipment deliveries. In a Truth Social post, Trump complained that military equipment was “NOT BEING MADE FAST ENOUGH — urging executives to build NEW and MODERN Production plants while criticizing their pay packages as exorbitant and unjustifiable.

This idea was quickly formalized in a White House executive order, which states that “effective immediately,” large defense contractors “are not permitted in any way, shape, or form to pay dividends or buy back stock, until such time as they are able to produce a superior product, on time and on budget.” Whether the president has the power to enact restrictions on capital allocation on private companies remains unclear.

The swing in defense shares comes days after the US military’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, which had buoyed energy and defense stocks as investors price in elevated risk and potential access to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.

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Report: Boeing could unveil 500-jet order from China during Trump’s visit later this month

Shares of Boeing are up nearly 4% on Friday afternoon, following a Bloomberg report that the company could be close to finalizing a deal to sell 500 planes to China.

The deal was first reported in August and would be one of Boeing’s largest ever.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

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Why software shares are withstanding the war jitters

The outbreak of the war in Iran has clearly rattled investors and created a few clear winners — mostly energy stocks — and losers — consumer staples, airlines, and, well, more or else everything else.

But there is one interesting outlier to that Manichaean market dynamic.

Software shares — often the same companies that the market was giving up for dead just a few weeks ago due to overexpectations of an AI-driven disruption — have been holding up remarkably well.

These companies, including Intuit, ServiceNow, Datadog, Snowflake, IBM, Workday, and Oracle, have actually had a pretty decent run since the war started with a combined US-Israeli attack on Iran last weekend.

A new note from RBC Capital’s Rishi Jaluria suggests this isn’t just a fluke. Looking at the performance of software stocks during periods of geopolitical stress and market volatility over the last 10 and 25 years, his team found that software shares appear fairly well insulated when these broader shocks hit. RBC wrote:

“The defensive nature of SaaS models and the mission-critical nature of many core software systems at the enterprise level (e.g., in the absence of mass layoffs that may create seat-based headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty and/or market volatility typically will not cause an enterprise CIO to consider ripping out their ERP, CRM, Cyber systems, etc.”

I briefly got Jaluria on the phone yesterday, and he explained a bit more about why he thinks investors might see software as a decent place to hide out from the current chaos.

“With everything in the Middle East, you have to think about not just oil and gas input prices but also supply chains,” he said. “With software, you’re not really thinking about that.”

In other words, there is no equivalent of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz that software investors have to worry about.

Others suggested that the near-term profitability of these giant software companies — aside from concerns about potential long-term disruption from AI — may look different in the face of the economic uncertainty that seems to be growing with the war, especially after a sell-off that has left them relatively attractively valued.

Mark Moerdler, who covers software stocks for Bernstein Research, says that while the AI worries are clearly real, software companies continue to be highly productive cash cows.

“Everyone is afraid that AI is a massive disruptor, and all these articles you read talk about AI as massive disruptor or the world is ending or whatever,” he said. “You don’t see it in the fundamental numbers of the companies I cover. They are delivering GAAP profits, free cash flow, and they’re good investment ideas.”

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