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Credit bureaus sink as FICO launches a direct program for FICO scores, eliminating reliance on credit bureaus

Nationwide credit bureaus Equifax and TransUnion are down 11% and 5% in premarket trading on Thursday, respectively, after Fair Isaac Corp. announced a new program to enable tri-merge resellers to directly distribute FICO scores to customers.

Dublin-based Experian PLC also dropped as much as 5% on the news.

Per FICO’s press release: “With the launch of the FICO® Mortgage Direct License Program, tri-merge resellers have the option to calculate and distribute FICO Scores directly to their customers, eliminating reliance on the three nationwide credit bureaus. This shift will drive price transparency and immediate cost savings to mortgage lenders, mortgage brokers, and other industry participants.”

Through this streamlining effort, resellers that buy and merge reports from Equifax, TransUnion, and Experian into one would rely less on these intermediaries in the chain to directly distribute their FICO scores. In effect, FICO hopes to eliminate “unnecessary mark-ups on the FICO Score” and put “pricing model choice in the hands of those who use FICO Scores to drive mortgage decisions,” according to Will Lansing, chief executive officer of FICO.

FICO calculates this shift will reduce the average fee per score by some 50%, with the royalty fee under the new model set at $4.95 per score, compared to the $10 fee per score in the previous system. Once a FICO-scored loan is closed under the new Mortgage Direct License Program, a funded loan fee of $33 per borrower per score will be applied additionally.

Despite the new program, firms can continue to still work through the credit bureaus if preferred.

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US unemployment rate rises for four consecutive readings, first time since 2009

A double dose of long-delayed jobs data landed this morning, with release of non-farm payrolls for October and November.

The unemployment rate rose by more than expected to 4.6% in November, while 64,000 jobs were added.

Economists expected non-farm payrolls growth of 50,000 with the unemployment rate edging higher to 4.5%.

The US unemployment rate has now risen for four consecutive readings for the first time since June 2009.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF was little-changed in the aftermath of this data.

Event contracts indicated that the masses thought non-farm payrolls growth for November would come in above 25,000 (74%) but below 100,000 (with above that level having a probability of 21%) heading into this release.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. Event contracts trading is offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, a registered futures commission merchant with the CFTC.)

This was a messy set of data, as these reports had been long-delayed in light of the government shutdown, and no unemployment rate was produced for October.

The delayed impact of federal government buyouts related to DOGE meaningfully weighed on October’s non-farm payrolls figure, which contracted by 105,000. More than all of this was tied to a 162,000 decline in federal government jobs. Private payrolls rose by 52,000 in the tenth month of the year.

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Needham hikes price target on Micron by 50% to $300 ahead of earnings on tight memory chip supplies

Needham analyst Quinn Bolton boosted his price target on Micron to $300 from $200 ahead of its Q1 fiscal 2026 results, scheduled to be released on Wednesday.

While there have been numerous media reports that try to pin down who gets what in different prominent AI supply chains, the simple story here is there’s effectively an oligopoly for dynamic random access memory chips (Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix), and these companies have pricing power because of limited supply and elevated AI-fueled demand.

“We believe industry supply/demand is far tighter than management expected on its F4Q25 (Aug) earnings call,” Bolton writes. “We expect industry supply will remain constrained throughout 2026 as Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix are all constrained by clean room space and can only rely on node transitions to increase bit shipments in the near term.”

In other words, these companies are so capacity-constrained that the only way to sell more memory is to sell better chips as they move to more advanced editions.

“We note management recently confirmed the company's HBM3E and HBM4 capacity is sold out for CY2026 and believe HBM continues to carry above corporate and DRAM average gross margin,” he writes.

Bolton also boosted his estimates for full year sales for Micron’s next two fiscal years by 8% and 14%, respectively, and adjusted earnings per share by 18% and 30%, respectively. Even so, all of these figures remain a little below consensus.

Wall Street analysts have been scrambling to right-size their views on Micron ahead of earnings. The average price target has gone up by a whopping 67% over the last three months, and the shares spent the vast majority of time from late October through last week trading above the consensus outlook.

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Pfizer gives 2026 guidance, with sales set to slow and EPS forecast below consensus

Pfizer edged higher in premarket trading after reaffirming its 2025 guidance and giving analysts a fresh steer on 2026.

The company said it expects 2026 annual adjusted earnings per share to hit between $2.80 and $3.00, lower than the $3.05 analysts polled by FactSet are currently pencilling in.

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