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Luke Kawa & David Crowther

CoreWeave guidance disappoints as delays weigh on data center ramp despite blowout top and bottom line beats

CoreWeave reported a strong sales beat in Q3, with bottom-line results to match.

  • Revenue: $1.36 billion (compared to analyst estimates of $1.23 billion and guidance for $1.26 billion to $1.30 billion)

  • Adjusted operating income: $217.15 million (estimate: $177.2 million, guidance: $160 million to $190 million)

Those figures exceeded every estimate among analysts polled by Bloomberg.

More strong sales seem to be in the pipeline: CoreWeave’s revenue backlog swelled to $55.6 billion at the end of the quarter, nearly double the $30.1 billion at the end of Q2.

But they’re not imminent: in fact, despite this revenue beat, CoreWeave reduced its 2025 annual sales forecast to a range of $5.05 billion to $5.15 billion from its prior outlook for $5.15 billion to $5.35 billion.

That cut to its guidance has shares deep in the red on Tuesday morning during premarket trading.

CoreWeave seems to be having a little trouble getting as much compute up and running as Wall Street had hoped for, with active power of 590 megawatts at the end of the quarter, where analysts had anticipated nearly 625 megawatts.

On the earnings call, the company’s executives discussed a delay to one of their data centers in more detail, a problem which is weighing on its Q4 and FY25 guidance. To be clear, CoreWeave isn’t flagging access to power in particular as a critical bottleneck right now (unlike Microsoft’s and Nvidia’s leaders). Rather, it’s the other physical infrastructure supporting the data center that’s the issue.

Michael Intrator, CoreWeave’s CEO, said:

So you're going to be hearing this theme repeated again and again as you talk to not just CoreWeave, but across the space. And it is a real challenge at the powered shell level. It's not a challenge for power, right? There's plenty of power right now, and we believe that there will be ample power for the next couple of years. But really where the challenge is, is the powered shell.

Accordingly, CoreWeave’s guidance for over 850 megawatts of active power at year end would entail the company falls well short of the current consensus estimates for nearly 900 megawatts.

It’s going to take a lot of supply chain unfurling to realize its revenue backlog on schedule.

CoreWeave revenue backlog
Source: CoreWeave Q3 earnings presentation

The neocloud company had a busy quarter, reaching a $14 billion pact with Meta for AI compute, expanding its agreement with OpenAI, and signing a $6.3 billion deal with Nvidia for any unused cloud computing capacity, among others. CoreWeave’s recent attempt at vertical integration failed, as Core Scientific shareholders voted overwhelmingly against its proposed acquisition on October 30.

However, there’s a little less drama around this quarter’s results than there was for the last one. That’s because its lock-up period expired shortly after CoreWeave’s impressive Q2 results, catalyzing a wave of profit taking in the AI darling.

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Large-caps waver ahead of next week’s Fed meeting; small-caps notch record close

Stocks are in a holding pattern as investors await tomorrow’s release of September PCE for further insight into next week’s Fed decision.

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Report: US senators plan to introduce bill blocking Nvidia from selling advanced chips to China for 30 months

US senators are on the verge of introducing a bill that would block Nvidia from selling its H200 or Blackwell chips to China for 30 months, the Financial Times reports. The H200 is Nvidia’s best chip from the Hopper generation, while the Blackwell line is its current flagship offering.

Shares of the chip designer are little changed in the wake of this report, still up more than 1% on the session. The reaction makes sense, seeing as previous positive indications on Nvidia’s ability to sell advanced chips to China failed to inspire much positive momentum in its shares.

The stock got a short-lived jolt higher (that didn’t last the day!) on November 21 after Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration had discussed the possibility of selling its H200 chips to China.

Nvidia has effectively been shut out of China’s AI market in 2025. First, export restrictions meant it could no longer sell the H20, a nerfed version of its Hopper chip, to the world’s second-largest economy. After that export ban was lifted, demand from China “never materialized,” per Nvidia CFO Colette Kress. Reports indicate that China banned its leading technology giants from purchasing these semiconductors, instead pushing them toward domestic alternatives.

President Donald Trump had mused about allowing Nvidia to sell Blackwell chips to China prior to his meeting with Chinese President Xi in late October, but failed to do so. The two leaders did not discuss the topic at that time.

Per the FT, this upcoming bill would be a bipartisan effort, being cosponsored by the leading Republican and Democrat members of the Senate Foreign Relations East Asia subcommittee.

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Luke Kawa

AI energy plays soar on an explosion of call buying

Like their quantum computing counterparts, AI-linked energy plays are benefiting from an explosion of bullish options activity on Thursday.

  • Oklo is up double digits with call volumes above 106,000 as of 2:46 p.m. ET, more than double its 20-day average for a full session, with a put/call ratio of about 0.6. Call options with a strike price of $110 that expire this Friday (which are now in-the-money thanks to today’s surge) are seeing the most activity.

  • Nuscale, another nuclear energy play, has seen nearly 140,000 call options change hands versus a 20-day average of 51,073.

  • And fuel cell company Bloom Energy has traded nearly 80,000 calls, roughly twice its 20-day average, with a put/call ratio of about 0.3.

During his appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast released on Wednesday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang talked up the potential for nuclear energy, saying, “In the next six to seven years I think you are going to see a whole bunch of small nuclear reactors.”

This adds to the evidence that the speculative bid is back in a big way after smaller stocks tied to the AI boom and quantum computing cratered from mid-October through most of November as credit risk began to seep into the AI trade.

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Technology giants don’t look like they used to, as the asset-light era fades

Oracle and Meta are now some of the most capital-intensive businesses in the S&P 500, spending more than energy giants. I guess data really is the new oil?

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Matt Phillips

Space stocks rip amid speculation on Altman joining race

Space stocks AST SpaceMobile, Planet Labs, and Rocket Lab all soared Thursday amid a recovery in the high-beta momentum class of shares coveted by some retail traders.

(High-beta momo stocks are basically shares that have been on a winning streak for a while, and tend to go up a lot more than the overall market on positive days. Goldman Sachs includes all three of the aforementioned space stocks in its themed basket of such shares.)

There’s little other fundamental news out there on the companies themselves.

But a Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI impresario Sam Altman has been toying with the idea of entering the space industry, potentially standing up a rival to Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite service, may also be contributing.

As we’ve mentioned elsewhere, sometimes these stocks seem to trade on a what’s-bad-for-the-Musk-empire-is-good-for-us-and-vice-versa vibe.

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