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Commvault CVLT earnings share price move
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Commvault CEO on the “next wave” for the data security firm

A strategic shift toward a SaaS model reinvigorated growth at the midcap data security firm. Its share price has been running.

Data security company Commvault crushed earnings expectations Tuesday, sending the stock up some 20% in its best daily gain since last October.

With the animal spirits clearly romping in the market, Commvault, a midcap vendor of B2B data security and IT data services, isn’t the sexiest thing for investors to get excited about.

But its share price has been on the move, rising more than 140% over the last couple years — handily outpacing the S&P MidCap 400’s return of about 18% — as the company has managed to reinvigorate sales, push up profit margins, and deal with the activist investors who were targeting the stock a few years back.

We sat down with Commvault CEO Sanjay Mirchandani, who took over in 2019, to get a sense of how durable he thinks the company’s turnaround is as well as its prospects for growing into the expensive valuation the market has slapped on the stock, with a forward price to sales of 6.3x compared to a 1.3x for the index.

This conversation was edited for clarity and concision.

Matt Phillips, Sherwood News: Sanjay, thanks taking some time today. It’s a big day for the stock, by the way, as I’m sure you noticed. You were named as Commvault’s CEO in 2019, when the company was facing some pressure from activist investors after a few years of spotty financial performance. Talk about some key decisions you made.

Sanjay Mirchandani: One of the first decisions we made was to invest in a SaaS product, even though our industry was sort of the last to embrace SaaS and the public cloud. But we invested in a product called Metallic within weeks of my coming onboard.

Sherwood: Bearing in mind that a lot of our readers are probably not going to know the company that well, in just the most basic way possible, what does Metallic do?

Mirchandani: It was built to be a data protection suite, delivered as a SaaS product. So it’s a service, and we run it for you. If you’ve got Office 365, if you’ve got Salesforce.com, if you’ve got your own homegrown apps that are cloud-native, virtual machines — whatever your infrastructure, your application layers involved, we back that up for you.

But the beauty of what we built, if I may be immodest for a minute, is that we made it seamless for customers as they move to the public cloud to avail themselves of our capabilities, either cloud-based or on-premise.

If your IT organization was doing all of this management for you, they got to see all of it in a single pane of glass, whether it was on-premise that they were managing or it was in the cloud that we were managing.

Sherwood: So the focus on SaaS was clearly a strategic decision you thought the company had to make.

Mirchandani: I had no crystal ball to say how fast it would happen, but it was inevitable. Our industry was last part of the data infrastructure business that needed to embrace the public cloud.

I’m happy to say that that was one thing we did that has held us in very good stead as a company, and it’s coming through in our results. Our SaaS annual recurring revenue is north of $300 million, for a product that is a basically 4.5-year-old business.

Sherwood: To move toward some of these numbers you reported today, how did those strategic decisions that we talked about map onto the reinvigoration of growth at the company? It looks like it was 25.5% year-on-year growth in the most recent quarter. A few years back that was more like 6% or 7%.

Mirchandani: First things first, the platform we’re building, we build every day and we enhance every day. It doesn’t matter what workload it is, what cloud on the edge, on-premise, it doesn’t matter. We are by far the leader.

So innovation at the end of it is key because what we’re selling for customers is a really tough problem. If you’re an airline, if you’re a retailer, if you’re an accounting company, your competence is that business. It’s not cyber resilience or cybersecurity. But those are capabilities every company now has to be darn good at. The bad guys only have to be right once; you have to right every single time.

We have a great platform that we continue to invest in. I spent over a billion dollars over the last three, four years on R&D — significant for a company of our size. We have over 1,100 patents, active patents, and we take that very seriously. We innovate and bring that value to customers.

Number two: cloud first. Everyone’s going cloud first. And building an application and protecting it in the cloud is a world apart from building an application and protecting it on-premise, as you did two or three or four years ago. What we’re trying to do is be in front of the customer’s problems related to the cloud.

Sherwood: You mentioned your focus on bringing some of your technologies to the AI world. Does that push have a name? Is there a new product? Is there something I should be looking for?

Mirchandani: In November, we’re going to be announcing a whole bunch of new things along the lines of what we, you and I, have been talking about at a high level. For us, AI is about adding value. And what we do is we help customers be more resilient, so my AI efforts in the company, my R&D efforts using AI for customers, is to enable them to be more resistant. We’re using AI to help with that kind of thing: detecting threats, managing those threats, giving you a point of view on those threats. We also build AI into the product to make it more usable, self-healing, self-helping, so customers can get up and running faster.

We just bought a company, Satori, and what Satori does is really visibility, observability, and policy enforcement on data. That makes complete sense when you’re building AI model LLMs, you’re training them, and your employees are interacting with them. You want to make sure that there’s some oversight and enforcement. So we bought this little company out of Israel to help us further enhance the platform with observability. We think this is going to be the next wave.

Sherwood: That seems like a pretty good place to leave it. Thanks very much for taking the time. I really appreciate it.

Mirchandani: Likewise.

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Intel’s earnings send fellow CPU sellers Arm and AMD higher

A strong set of Q1 results and Q2 guidance from Intel is sending shares of fellow CPU sellers Arm Holdings and Advanced Micro Devices about 6% and 4% higher in postmarket trading, respectively.

Intel’s robust report is seemingly a rising tide that lifts all boats in the industry, not just a company-specific dynamic.

Arm recently pivoted to designing and selling CPUs for data center customers (like Meta!) in addition to its long-standing business of licensing out the design architecture.

And AMD, of course, has been a well-established giant in the space before it ever started offering GPUs.

It’s the latest reminder that the AI boom isn’t just juicing demand for the most advanced chips, but also memory, older-school units, and a wide array of hardware.

markets

Intel crushes Q1 earnings expectations, forecasts strong Q2 revenue, shares soar

Intel shares surged in after-hours trading Thursday after the semiconductor giant reported much better-than-expected Q1 earnings and sales numbers, as well as robust guidance for Q2.

Intel reported:

  • Q1 revenue of $13.6 billion vs. a consensus expectation for $12.42 billion.

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.29 vs. the $0.02 consensus estimate from FactSet.

  • A forecast for Q2 sales of between $13.8 billion and $14.8 billion vs. analysts’ $13.11 billion expectation.

  • A forecast for adjusted Q2 EPS of $0.20 vs. Wall Street expectations for $0.10.

“The next wave of AI will bring intelligence closer to the end user, moving from foundational models to inference to agentic. This shift is significantly increasing the need for Intel’s CPUs and wafer and advanced packaging offerings,” Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan said in the company’s earnings release.

The quarterly result was clearly a surprise to both analysts and investors. Shares were up 15% shortly after the report in after-hours trading — despite having risen roughly 50% already in the month of April before the results were released.

Intel’s results could not be more different from the previous quarter. In its Q4 report, Intel issued lackluster guidance for Q1, which it blamed on a dearth of available silicon wafers it could use to make finished chips. The stock plunged 17% the next day.

“Intel was explicit on the Q4 call that they were living hand-to-mouth on wafers,” Cody Acree, a senior semiconductor analyst at brokerage firm Benchmark/StoneX, said in a brief phone interview with Sherwood News Thursday. “If this kind of upside was possible, than why the ultraconservative guidance?”

The Q1 results are a significant coda to what has been one of the best periods of share price performance for the company in decades. The stock has more than tripled over the last 12 months.

That run-up, however, had seemed to far outpace Intel’s actual business results, resulting in a nosebleed-inducing forward price-to-earnings valuation nearly 100x expected earnings over the next 12 months, dwarfing even the valuations the company was receiving during the peak of the dot-com boom of the 1990s. But the Q1 numbers suggest the market was picking up good vibrations that seem to have been borne out.

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Saleah Blancaflor

The national average of US gas prices drops to $4.03

Drivers can breathe a small sigh of relief... for now. The national average gas price has gone down $0.06 since last week to $4.03 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association.

The national average was at $4.09 per gallon a week ago.

Meanwhile, US crude oil prices have gone under $100 per barrel, which has played a part in helping drive down the cost of gas for customers. But how long the downward trend will continue remains uncertain due to instability along the Strait of Hormuz.

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(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Gas prices are currently the highest theyve ever been this time of the year going back to 2022, when the national average was $4.11 on April 23.

As we head into the end of April, prediction markets currently show traders pricing in an 81% chance the price of gas could still rise above $4.10 by the end of the month.

Meanwhile, US crude oil prices have gone under $100 per barrel, which has played a part in helping drive down the cost of gas for customers. But how long the downward trend will continue remains uncertain due to instability along the Strait of Hormuz.

Loading...
 

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Gas prices are currently the highest theyve ever been this time of the year going back to 2022, when the national average was $4.11 on April 23.

As we head into the end of April, prediction markets currently show traders pricing in an 81% chance the price of gas could still rise above $4.10 by the end of the month.

markets

This chart shows how Donald Trump is the king of stock market volatility

Well, here is an absolute banger of a chart from Fundstrat that is sure to simultaneously please and annoy everyone:

Macro data scientist Alex Wang’s chart on the causes of the five best and worst market days during different presidencies demonstrates how much the Oval Office has driven US stock market volatility during President Trump’s second term in office.

Fundstrat up and down days by presidency

My very loose, abstract description of what policymakers do is “try to make things better.” (As for what constitutes “things” and “better,” well, tens of millions of Americans will have to agree to disagree.)

Most of the time, these things the president and Congress pursue are not a massive shock to the financial system, though there’s always a doomsayer warning that something like Obamacare will spell the end for US stocks. And that means most of the time, you can probably expect a positive skew: policymakers will be coming in with stimulus to support the economy and markets in the face of unexpected downside.

Per Fundstrat’s analysis, that clearly hasn’t been the case in the past 15 months. You can look at this one of two ways. Perhaps this period has been a time of such economic stability and impressive earnings growth that some of those other catalysts for massive one-day drops haven’t materialized. We’re blessed to have gotten to enjoy such a solid backdrop! Or you could suggest this is indicative of a fundamentally more activist presidency and more frequent policy decisions that carry higher macroeconomic consequences compared to previous presidencies. We’re doomed to swing wildly based on what we see next on Truth Social!

There have been a lot of wonderful studies released by asset managers on the importance of not missing the 10 best days in the market in any given year. (It’s less often mentioned by folks who have a vested interest in you investing your money about how much better returns would be if you miss the 10 worst days of the year!) The problem is that these sessions are typically clustered so close together that it’s an impossible task to navigate twisted, volatile waters so cleanly.

The upshot: Trump-induced volatility has been noise, with the biggest five losses nearly perfectly canceling out the biggest gains. There’s an underlying non-Trump, mainly AI trend that’s mattered, and that’s probably the main reason the US stock market is where it is.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.