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Hyunsoo Rim

Coinbase rises after announcing entry into prediction markets, stock trading

Coinbase was nearly 3% higher in early trading on Thursday after the crypto exchange said Wednesday its launching stock trading and prediction markets in the US — as the company accelerates its push to become an everything exchange.

Users will now be able to trade stocks and ETFs alongside their crypto portfolios at zero commission — using either US dollars or the USDC stablecoin — within their Coinbase app and account, the company said.

Prediction markets will be offered through CFTC-regulated provider Kalshi, allowing users to trade yes-or-no contracts tied to elections, sports, economic indicators, and more, with bets placed in US dollars or USDC stablecoin.

Prediction markets have surged in popularity after a federal court allowed event contracts tied to the US election to proceed last year, overcoming attempted regulatory curbs. Contracts on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have proven more accurate on certain outcomes — most notably the 2024 US presidential election — than traditional markets, though critics warn of the dangers of insider trading.

The space is heating up quickly, with crypto exchange Gemini recently securing CFTC approval, Crypto.com teaming up with Trump Media to launch markets on Truth Social, and Robinhood already offering prediction markets through Kalshi while expanding its event trading features, with 11 billion contracts traded by more than 1 million customers on the app since launching late last year.

(Disclosure: Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company. I own Robinhood stock as part of my compensation.)

Alongside the major rollouts, Coinbase also unveiled a broad slate of new products, including Coinbase Business; custom-branded stablecoins backed by flexible collaterals like USDC; an AI-powered financial adviser; and Coinbase Tokenize, an institutional platform aimed at enabling 24/7 on-chain trading of tokenized assets.

Coinbases shares are down about 2.5% year to date, after erasing roughly a 50% gain logged as recently as early October amid a broader sell-off across crypto markets.

Prediction markets have surged in popularity after a federal court allowed event contracts tied to the US election to proceed last year, overcoming attempted regulatory curbs. Contracts on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have proven more accurate on certain outcomes — most notably the 2024 US presidential election — than traditional markets, though critics warn of the dangers of insider trading.

The space is heating up quickly, with crypto exchange Gemini recently securing CFTC approval, Crypto.com teaming up with Trump Media to launch markets on Truth Social, and Robinhood already offering prediction markets through Kalshi while expanding its event trading features, with 11 billion contracts traded by more than 1 million customers on the app since launching late last year.

(Disclosure: Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company. I own Robinhood stock as part of my compensation.)

Alongside the major rollouts, Coinbase also unveiled a broad slate of new products, including Coinbase Business; custom-branded stablecoins backed by flexible collaterals like USDC; an AI-powered financial adviser; and Coinbase Tokenize, an institutional platform aimed at enabling 24/7 on-chain trading of tokenized assets.

Coinbases shares are down about 2.5% year to date, after erasing roughly a 50% gain logged as recently as early October amid a broader sell-off across crypto markets.

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United beats Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, lowers full-year profit guidance amid surging jet fuel prices

United Airlines reported its first-quarter earnings results after the bell on Tuesday. The carrier’s shares ticked down in after-hours trading.

For Q1, United reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, compared to the Wall Street estimate of $1.08 per share compiled by FactSet.

  • $14.6 billion in revenue, compared to the $14.39 billion consensus estimate.

In the first quarter, United’s fuel expense grew 12.6% from the same period last year to $3.04 billion.

For the second quarter, United expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1 and $2, shy of Wall Street expectations of $2.08. For the full year ahead, United said it expects earnings between $7 and $11 per share, compared to its prior guidance of between $12 and $14 per share.

“Guidance assumes United’s revenue recovers 40% to 50% of the fuel price increases in the second quarter, 70% to 80% of the fuel price increases in the third quarter and 85% to 100% of the fuel price increases in the fourth quarter 2026,” read the company’s investor update.

Earlier this month, United was among the first major US airlines to hike its bag fees amid higher fuel costs. Its shares have fallen more than 15% from a February high days before the war in Iran began.

United has also made waves this month following reports that CEO Scott Kirby had floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines to President Trump. A merger between two of the big four airlines would create a true US behemoth, controlling more than a third of the American market. American Air last week said it wasn’t interested in merging with United and hadn’t held talks on the idea. On Tuesday, Trump told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea either.

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Hedge funds are following retail traders into the Magnificent 7

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the stocks the masses never stopped buying.

“As we kick off earnings for megacap tech stocks, this stood out: [hedge funds] have started buying Mag7 stocks again this month though positioning remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2016,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Cullen Morgan.

Goldman PB Mag 7
Source: Goldman Sachs

In early April, JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail investors had basically been selling everything but the Magnificent 7 stocks as part of a more cautious stance due to the Iran war.

(Apple has been a long-standing exception to this trend, presumably because retail traders arent fond of its hands-off approach to AI.)

JPM Retail flows

Last August, Jain discussed how retail activity tended to “crowd in” institutional buyers in meme stocks, while Goldman’s John Marshall advised clients to piggyback on stocks beloved by retail traders. Speculative, retail-geared assets proceeded to go on a tremendous run that soured in October.

But there are some early indications that a similar bout of speculative fervor is bubbling up once more.

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POET Technologies surges above $10 for first time in 4 years amid explosion in call volumes

POET Technologies is up nearly 40% this week as options market activity goes haywire in a faint echo of what got the stock on retail traders’ radars in October.

As of 11:12 a.m. ET, more than 10 calls have changed hands for every put traded. This bullish impulse has propelled the stock above the $10 threshold for the first time since March 2022.

Shares of the optical communications firm briefly dipped last week after Wolfpack Research said it was short the company because its investors would be exposed to an “IRS tax nightmare.”

The company responded that day saying it was taking measures for US shareholders that “should mitigate certain potential adverse US federal income tax consequences to it that could otherwise result from the Company’s status as a passive foreign investment company.”

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.