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Matt Phillips

Chip-smuggling charges against Super Micro cofounder boost rival server maker Dell

Dell is up in early Friday trading after rival Super Micro Computer plunged on news that one of its cofounders had been charged by US prosecutors with allegedly illegally smuggling AI chips to China.

Dell, Super Micro, and HP Enterprise are all what’s known as “system makers”: they sell ready-to-roll rack servers, storage systems, and the other hardware that’s needed to fill all those data centers that hyperscalers are so desperate to build.

Dell and Super Micro both sell systems built around Nvidia GPUs, so the US government’s allegations against key personnel tied to Super Micro could jeopardize the company’s access to Nvidia products and give Dell a leg up in that crucial AI-related server market.

Super Micro dives after cofounder charged with allegedly smuggling AI chips to China

Super Micro dives after cofounder charged with allegedly smuggling AI chips to China

Dell, Super Micro, and HP Enterprise are all what’s known as “system makers”: they sell ready-to-roll rack servers, storage systems, and the other hardware that’s needed to fill all those data centers that hyperscalers are so desperate to build.

Dell and Super Micro both sell systems built around Nvidia GPUs, so the US government’s allegations against key personnel tied to Super Micro could jeopardize the company’s access to Nvidia products and give Dell a leg up in that crucial AI-related server market.

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David Crowther

Investors have been drawn to software stocks since the Iran war started — Figma has been an exception

Since the Iran war started, risky assets have been in the crosshairs. Stocks have sold off as oil prices spiked, the odds of rate cuts later this year have been slashed, and even the usual safe havens like gold and silver have been unreliable ports in the growing storm.

One port of refuge, however, has been in software stocks. As noted by my colleague Matt Phillips recently, a number of high-profile software names — the same ones that some pundits doomed to obsolescence because of AI just a few short weeks ago — have held up well. Design company Figma, however, has not been one of those names.

Figma’s stock has dropped 19% since the close of trading on February 27, while the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF has gained 2%.

Though still notching very respectable top-line growth, with sales up 40% last year, Figma is far from the “cash cow” stage of its life — perhaps why it’s been hit harder than peers such as Adobe, Workday, or Salesforce. Indeed, on a GAAP basis, Wall Street still expects the company to lose $477 million this year, as heavy stock-based compensation weighs on its profitability.

Figma’s pain was then compounded when Google announced a major update to Stitch on Wednesday — a product described as “an AI-native software design canvas that allows anyone to create, iterate and collaborate on high-fidelity UI from natural language.”

Debate is still raging on Reddit and other social media platforms as to whether Stitch, or other vibe-coding platforms and tools, will meaningfully eat into Figma’s core business. One user said that it “offers very little to experienced designers. It removes the tools Figma offers and delegates everything to AI. Figma at least has all the capabilities plus AI for people who want to use AI.” Another — complaining about the newly prohibitive cost of credits in Figma’s own AI-powered tool, Figma Make — was more bearish on Figma’s usefulness, saying that the number of credits the designer would need to use would cost $16,000 under Figma’s new pricing model.

For now, investors aren’t giving Figma the benefit of the doubt, with the stock down 12% in the last two days alone.

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Matt Phillips

Planet Labs soars after earnings beat and positive analyst commentary

Planet Labs held on to huge post-earnings gains early Friday as analysts that cover the retail favorite issued largely upbeat reviews of its Q4 report released Thursday after the bell. Here’s some of their commentary on the satellite services company:

Wedbush (rating: “outperform,” price target: $40): PL is seeing major tailwinds in the geopolitical space, continuing to drive mission-critical demand globally. Total RPO came in at ~ $852 million (up ~106% y/y) with backlog of ~$900+ million (up ~79% y/y) highlighted by 9- figure deal with the Swedish Armed Forces which was the third 9-figure Satellite Services contract over the past 12 months totaling $500+ million across Sweden, Japan, and Germany, with management noting on the call that both deal count and average size in the satellite services pipeline has grown appreciably.”

Citizens (rating: “market perform,” price target: N/A): “In our view, Planet’s solid performance in the quarter and the significant revenue acceleration implied for FY27 reflect the company’s success in shifting to a satellite services model and leaning (heavily) into the needs of Defense & Intelligence segment customers. We believe this is the correct area of focus (for management and investors) and view some of the flashier announcements around Project Suncatcher (space-based data centers), or more recently, AI enabling a renaissance within Planet’s Civil and Commercial businesses as somewhat of a distraction.”

Clear Street (rating: “buy,” price target: $34): “While F2026 revenue grew 26%, non-defense verticals have lagged. Management signaled an inflection point, with use cases such as maritime awareness data poised towards gaining traction across finance, insurance, and supply chain, supported by a more tailored approach with LLM partnerships like Anthropic (private).”

There’s a reason the stock has built a strong retail following: it had already surged more than 500% over the past year, even before jumping another 20% after last night’s earnings.

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Hyunsoo Rim

Super Micro dives after cofounder charged with allegedly smuggling AI chips to China

Super Micro Computer plunged over 25% in premarket trading on Friday after cofounder Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw, another worker, and a company contractor were charged by US prosecutors with allegedly conspiring to sell $2.5 billion worth of AI servers containing Nvidia chips to China, in violation of US export controls.

Super Micro was not named in the DOJ indictment, which was released on Thursday.

Prosecutors say the three charged suspects, including Liaw, used a pass-through company to place orders, making it appear the servers were meant for “legitimate commercial activity” while obscuring their actual “China-based end customers.”

Between 2024 and 2025, the pass-through company purchased roughly $2.5 billion worth of servers from Super Micro, including more than $510 million worth of US-assembled servers with Nvidia GPUs diverted to China between late April and mid-May 2025 alone, per the indictment.

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Claire Yubin Oh

FedEx jumps after boosting full-year profit forecast

FedEx is up more than 7% in early trading on Friday after the delivery company posted strong sales and boosted its full-year guidance in its Q3 earnings results, released Thursday.

For fiscal year 2026, ending May 31, the company raised its:

  • Revenue growth forecast, to be between 6% and 6.5% year over year, up from 5% to 6% previously and topping analyst estimates for 5.9% growth (compiled by Bloomberg).

  • Adjusted earnings per share (excluding certain costs, including a planned spin-off of the Freight segment), to be between $19.30 to $20.10, up from a previous range of $17.80 to $19.00.

FedEx also reported better-than-expected results for the quarter ended February 28, 2026, including:

  • Revenue of $24 billion, about 2% ahead of analyst forecasts of $23.5 billion.

  • Diluted adjusted EPS of $4.41, also above Wall Street estimates of $4.17.

Celebrating “another quarter of strong financial results,” in the press release the company’s management highlighted its main Express segment, improved by “higher U.S. domestic and International Priority package yields, continued cost savings from transformation initiatives, and increased U.S. domestic package volume.” The company is planning a spin-off of its Freight division into a new publicly traded company on June 1, 2026.

Often seen as something of a bellwether, owing to its billions of touchpoints across both consumers and enterprises, FedEx’s results may offer some light relief to investors that the American consumption machine is still on track.

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David Crowther

Stock futures dip after report Trump considering plans to occupy or blockade Kharg Island, drones strike Kuwait’s largest oil refinery

After a small relief rally yesterday afternoon, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country is helping with US efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz, risk assets like stocks are once again under pressure.

Futures on the S&P 500 are currently off 0.5%, a downturn seemingly catalyzed by a new report from Axios, which states that President Trump is exploring plans to “occupy or blockade” Kharg Island.

Citing four sources familiar with the matter, Axios highlights that any attempt to take Kharg Island — a small island of just 16 square kilometers that processes 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports — would put US troops more directly in the line of fire.

From a markets perspective, however, the most important detail might be the timeline, with Axios quoting one source as saying:

“We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations.”

Up to a month’s more strikes and disruption of global commodity markets before beginning a potentially risky land assault isn’t exactly what investors will want to hear currently, as Brent crude remains north of $110 per barrel after another Iranian drone attack on the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait, which processes about 730,000 barrels of oil each day, per Al Jazeera.

Trump mulls risky Kharg Island takeover to force Iran to open strait

Trump mulls risky Kharg Island takeover to force Iran to open strait

Citing four sources familiar with the matter, Axios highlights that any attempt to take Kharg Island — a small island of just 16 square kilometers that processes 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports — would put US troops more directly in the line of fire.

From a markets perspective, however, the most important detail might be the timeline, with Axios quoting one source as saying:

“We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations.”

Up to a month’s more strikes and disruption of global commodity markets before beginning a potentially risky land assault isn’t exactly what investors will want to hear currently, as Brent crude remains north of $110 per barrel after another Iranian drone attack on the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait, which processes about 730,000 barrels of oil each day, per Al Jazeera.

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