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Yiwen Lu

Chinese stock rally takes a U-turn

As traders grow impatient with the Chinese government’s reluctance to introduce new stimulus measures, the market is sinking furiously in response.

Traders were disappointed by China’s economic planning agency’s press conference. While there were high hopes for new fiscal policies from the government, the presser turned out to be a nothingburger. China’s Ministry of Finance now plans another briefing on Saturday, during which it will introduce a “countercyclical adjustment of fiscal policy.”

But as The Wall Street Journal’s Lingling Wei put it, the framing indicates that China’s leadership sees the country’s economic woes as “cyclical” rather than “structural.” That disappointed analysts who expected the government to acknowledge the problem and aim to lift the economic fundamentals.

The CSI 300 Index, which tracks stocks listed in Mainland China, plunged 7.1% on Wednesday, the index’s biggest drop since 2020. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index finished 1.4% lower on Wednesday, after losing a whopping 9.4% on Tuesday, its biggest loss in 14 years. 

The Mainland China market closed for the first week of October for the National Day holiday, while the Hong Kong stock exchange restarted trading on October 2. This allowed the Hong Kong market to react first to global market moves and investor sentiment. 

In the US, ETFs that track China stocks also suffered from loss. iShares MSCI China ETF, which tracks Chinese companies available to international investors, was down 10.8% on Tuesday. iShares China Large-Cap ETF fell 9.2%, while KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund lost 10%. Businesses that rely on Chinese consumers, including beauty retailer Estée Lauder, and luxury stocks also suffered from losses.

But as The Wall Street Journal’s Lingling Wei put it, the framing indicates that China’s leadership sees the country’s economic woes as “cyclical” rather than “structural.” That disappointed analysts who expected the government to acknowledge the problem and aim to lift the economic fundamentals.

The CSI 300 Index, which tracks stocks listed in Mainland China, plunged 7.1% on Wednesday, the index’s biggest drop since 2020. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index finished 1.4% lower on Wednesday, after losing a whopping 9.4% on Tuesday, its biggest loss in 14 years. 

The Mainland China market closed for the first week of October for the National Day holiday, while the Hong Kong stock exchange restarted trading on October 2. This allowed the Hong Kong market to react first to global market moves and investor sentiment. 

In the US, ETFs that track China stocks also suffered from loss. iShares MSCI China ETF, which tracks Chinese companies available to international investors, was down 10.8% on Tuesday. iShares China Large-Cap ETF fell 9.2%, while KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund lost 10%. Businesses that rely on Chinese consumers, including beauty retailer Estée Lauder, and luxury stocks also suffered from losses.

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Stocks get a jolt as Netanyahu says Israel is helping US efforts to open Strait of Hormuz

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a press conference that his country is helping with US efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz, putting a jolt into stocks. 

The S&P 500, which had been solidly negative for most of the day, turned slightly green after the remarks. The rebound lost a bit of steam shortly thereafter, but stocks still remained higher than they were before Netanyahu’s comments.

“Israel is helping, in its own way, in intel and other means, the American efforts to open the Strait of [Hormuz],” Netanyahu said, according to a video of the press conference.

Here are another few interesting headlines coming across from the presser, per Reuters:

*NETANYAHU: IRAN HAS NO CAPACITY TO ENRICH URANIUM OR MAKE BALLISTIC MISSILES AFTER 20 DAYS OF WAR

*NETANYAHU: CAN’T DO A REVOLUTION FROM THE AIR, THERE NEEDS TO BE A GROUND COMPONENT AS WELL

*NETANYAHU: ISRAEL ACTED ALONE AGAINST SOUTH PARS

*NETANYAHU: TRUMP ASKED US TO HOLD OFF ON FUTURE SUCH ATTACKS

And here’s how the market reacted instantly after his comments:

“Israel is helping, in its own way, in intel and other means, the American efforts to open the Strait of [Hormuz],” Netanyahu said, according to a video of the press conference.

Here are another few interesting headlines coming across from the presser, per Reuters:

*NETANYAHU: IRAN HAS NO CAPACITY TO ENRICH URANIUM OR MAKE BALLISTIC MISSILES AFTER 20 DAYS OF WAR

*NETANYAHU: CAN’T DO A REVOLUTION FROM THE AIR, THERE NEEDS TO BE A GROUND COMPONENT AS WELL

*NETANYAHU: ISRAEL ACTED ALONE AGAINST SOUTH PARS

*NETANYAHU: TRUMP ASKED US TO HOLD OFF ON FUTURE SUCH ATTACKS

And here’s how the market reacted instantly after his comments:

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Gold tumbles as market sees Fed shifting toward inflation fighting

Gold and gold miners tumbled Thursday, as the rolling Iran war energy crisis revived worries about inflation and pushed the market to take additional rate cuts this year off the table.

Gold (SPDR Gold Shares ETF) futures dropped roughly 6% shortly after 12 p.m. ET, hammering share prices for miners Newmont and Freeport-McMoRan. Silver (iShares Silver Trust) futures were down nearly 9%.

The decline in precious metals came alongside another sharp rise in energy prices. US benchmark crude oil (United States Oil Fund LP) and natural gas prices both jumped more than 3% after major Iranian attacks on Qatari energy infrastructure. US retail gasoline prices tracked by the American Automobile Association hit $3.884, up 33% from the end of last month, when a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran ignited hostilities.

Normally, gold prices are seen as a hedge on inflation, which might suggest that they should rise alongside expectations for persistent price increases.

But the speed of the Iran war energy shock — which will add to inflationary pressures already visible in recent economic reports, such as this week’s Producer Price Index, and could become a political problem for the Trump administration — has nudged traders to change their their views on whether the Federal Reserve would be able to deliver the rate cuts widely expected just a few weeks ago.

Yields on shorter-maturity US Treasury notes shot higher Thursday, reflecting expectations for tighter monetary policy. And prices in the market for federal funds futures suggest traders no longer see the US central bank cutting interest rates this year at all. (Early this month, market pricing implied expectations for two more cuts this year.)

On Thursday, yields fell on longer-term US government securities, such as the US 30-year bond. That suggests the market thinks a Fed shift toward inflation fighting and away from rate cutting would likely result in some decline in growth and/or inflation, helping to explain the drop in precious metals prices, as there would be less of a need for inflation hedges in such a scenario.

The decline in precious metals came alongside another sharp rise in energy prices. US benchmark crude oil (United States Oil Fund LP) and natural gas prices both jumped more than 3% after major Iranian attacks on Qatari energy infrastructure. US retail gasoline prices tracked by the American Automobile Association hit $3.884, up 33% from the end of last month, when a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran ignited hostilities.

Normally, gold prices are seen as a hedge on inflation, which might suggest that they should rise alongside expectations for persistent price increases.

But the speed of the Iran war energy shock — which will add to inflationary pressures already visible in recent economic reports, such as this week’s Producer Price Index, and could become a political problem for the Trump administration — has nudged traders to change their their views on whether the Federal Reserve would be able to deliver the rate cuts widely expected just a few weeks ago.

Yields on shorter-maturity US Treasury notes shot higher Thursday, reflecting expectations for tighter monetary policy. And prices in the market for federal funds futures suggest traders no longer see the US central bank cutting interest rates this year at all. (Early this month, market pricing implied expectations for two more cuts this year.)

On Thursday, yields fell on longer-term US government securities, such as the US 30-year bond. That suggests the market thinks a Fed shift toward inflation fighting and away from rate cutting would likely result in some decline in growth and/or inflation, helping to explain the drop in precious metals prices, as there would be less of a need for inflation hedges in such a scenario.

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Novo says FDA has approved high-dose Wegovy shot

The Food and Drug Administration approved Novo Nordisk’s high-dose Wegovy shot, the company announced on Thursday.

Wegovy HD, a once-weekly 7.2-milligram injection, helped patients lose 20.7% of their body weight after 72 weeks, putting it in line with Eli Lilly’s competitor drug, Zepbound. By comparison, Wegovy typically has a maximum dose of 2.4 milligrams, which resulted in 15% weight reduction over 68 weeks in trials.

Wegovy HD was the first drug to be approved through the FDA’s new priority voucher system. This comes as Novo, despite being early to the GLP-1 boom, has been outpaced in sales by Lilly. The company released a pill version of Wegovy in January, which has shown strong early uptake, though new competitor products are set to debut this year and next.

The stock is down about 1.6% for the day, but was down nearly 3% before the announcement.

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