Flag of USA and China on a processor, CPU or GPU microchip on a motherboard. US companies have become the latest collateral damage in US - China tech war. US limits, restricts AI chips sales to China.

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China’s DeepSeek turns AI on its head, with US tech stocks on track to lose $1 trillion in value

Nvidia could shed more than $350 billion today, as DeepSeek outscores OpenAI models on some measures.

1/27/25 8:43AM

Despite only being founded in 2023 and reportedly using inferior chips at a fraction of the cost of many of its competitors, Chinese AI lab DeepSeek released the R1 last week — a model that goes toe to toe with some of the biggest names in AI.

Its hardware efficiency, coupled with the fact that it’s free to use and open-source, is a potent cocktail that’s spooked the technology world over the weekend. DeepSeek’s output challenges the “spend billions to accelerate AI progress” narrative, and is sending stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Microsoft plummeting in premarket trading — threatening to wipe as much as $1 trillion off America’s top tech names.

DeepTrouble

Indeed, the weekend buzz around the large language model — the fact that it “thinks” before it speaks, shows its workings, and matches OpenAI’s most powerful model, the o1, on a range of metrics — seems to have left much of Silicon Valley wowed and worried, in almost equal measure.

Per DeepSeek’s own figures, the R1 model outperforms the OpenAI o1 on a variety of key tests, shining particularly brightly in math, where it beats the latest model from Sam Altman’s company on three different tests. While it’s less consistent on coding and language tests — it fared particularly badly on the “SimpleQA” (not shown in chart above), a test evaluating the simple factual accuracy of the info that LLMs spit out — the differences are fairly slim, making the cost-effective R1 look impressive.

The Chinese company’s slimmed-down training costs, use of cheaper chips, API, and open-source model have hauled the endless drive for more chips and compute that’s driven much of the market for the last 18 months into question. Meta, for example, is planning to spend more than $60 billion on capital expenditures just this year.

At a time when people are wondering if we can trust TikTok due to Chinese government ties, many have similar questions about DeepSeek. Tech evangelist Marc Andreessen was among those singing R1’s praises over the last few days — though he may not have asked it about Tiananmen Square yet.

Jon Keegan21m

Meta shares rally as Jefferies says it’s a bargain relative to Mag 7 peers

Shares of Meta rallied over 5% today, as Jefferies analyst Brent Thill doubled down on his buy rating for the company, calling the stock a relative bargain compared to its Magnificent 7 peers. The analyst set a price target of $910, well above the $645 where the stock is trading today.

News out of Davos this week that Meta’s first models from its revamped AI teams are “very good” align with Thill’s argument that the company is well positioned to get back in the AI race with the “all-star model,” which is expected to be released in the first half of the year.

Recent cuts to its Reality Labs also signal that the company is focusing its spending where it matters. The Jefferies note also said the recent monetization of Threads via ads will help boost revenue.

Next week, Meta reports its fourth-quarter earnings, and Thill expects that even if Meta raises its 2026 capex outlook, investors won’t be spooked, as the company has been clear that spending may continue to be high.

Matt Phillips2h

Arista Networks rips higher amid jump in call buying

Arista Networks, a maker of switches and other networking equipment used in AI data centers, was on track for its best day of the new year on Thursday as options traders went bullish on the stock.

As of around 11 a.m. ET, there was nearly twice as much call buying in Arista than its 10-day moving average for a full day of activity. Buying call options to make leveraged bets on price increases has been a favorite trading tactic of retail traders in recent years.

Otherwise, there weren’t clear headlines tied to today’s outsized move, but the stock has been getting attention lately: in a note published earlier this month, Goldman Sachs analysts spotlighted Arista as a top tactical trade for earnings season, saying the shares — which they rate a “buy” — could rise 20% over the next year.

“ANET is well positioned amidst ongoing data center spending growth, where its position as a best of breed provider of networking equipment should advantage the company, particularly as data center networks become increasingly complex,” Goldman analysts wrote in the January 8 report.

And recent reports also say Microsoft — which accounted for 20% of Arista’s revenue in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs — is planning a massive expansion of its Wisconsin data center project.

Arista stock did get a lift following the release of solid US economic numbers at 8:30 a.m. that seemed fairly specific to Arista itself. (There was no similar bounce from competitors like Cisco or Hewlett-Packard.)

Microsoft receives preliminary approval for $13.3B data center expansion in Mount Pleasant - Milwaukee Business Journal

And recent reports also say Microsoft — which accounted for 20% of Arista’s revenue in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs — is planning a massive expansion of its Wisconsin data center project.

Luke Kawa3h

Investors just made a mammoth $133 billion flip from cash to stocks, per Goldman Sachs

It’s a dash from cash, with investors taking billions in dry powder and pouring that money into the stock market.

“We saw strong net flows into global equity funds last week, led by stronger inflows into US and EM equity funds (+$71 billion vs $2 billion in the previous week) — more than 35x-ed the flows,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Gail Hafif, Brian Garrett, and Lee Coppersmith. “While equity flows increase, money market fund assets fell by $62 billion. This is the 3rd largest level in our dataset (!).”

The trio is bullish on US stocks, seeing “the case for contained selloffs coupled with relief rallies as the most likely path forward in the near term.”

Luke Kawa

Retail traders’ monthly appetite for stocks ascends to fresh record

“The current ‘new year’ momentum has been sustained and has now pushed retail activity to an all-time high on a rolling monthly basis,” according to JPMorgan.

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J. Edward Moreno4h

Moderna extends rally on positive cancer vaccine results

Moderna has more than doubled since it announced on Tuesday that its cancer vaccine reduced the risk of relapse or death for melanoma patients.

The five-year data from a Phase 2b trial showed that Moderna’s vaccine, when used with Merck’s blockbuster treatment Keytruda, reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49% compared with Keytruda alone. The news gave investors hope that Moderna, which is best known for quickly developing a COVID-19 vaccine, may soon have another lucrative product in its portfolio.

Last week, Moderna said it expects to report total 2025 revenue of $1.9 billion, on the high end of its latest guidance of between $1.6 billion and $2 billion, amid better-than-expected vaccination rates. As demand for the COVID-19 vaccine, its sole revenue-generating product, has tanked, the company has aggressively cut costs and focused on expanding its portfolio.

The combination of positive announcements early in the year has made Moderna the second-best performer in the S&P 500 Index in 2026, behind newfound AI darling Sandisk.