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Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang delivers a speech in Taipei on June 2, 2024 (photo by Sam Yeh / Getty Images).

Can Nvidia keep beating earnings estimates?

The magnitude of the AI-enabled boom caught analysts off guard, but Nvidia’s earnings beats have gotten smaller in the last year

Every day, scores of Wall Street analysts devote hours of their life to spreadsheets, tinkering with assumptions in their model as they try to estimate what public companies will report in their upcoming quarterly earnings. By definition, those estimates are pretty much always wrong, but they’re typically only wrong in a relatively small way — a few percent here or there.

However, last summer, the best of Wall Street was really wrong on Nvidia, as the chip company blew analysts estimates out of the water, beating revenue forecasts by 21% and profit by nearly 30% for the three months that ended in July 2023. That quarter was the first indication of what was to come: one of the biggest bull-runs in stock market history, which is showing no signs of letting up.

Indeed, Nvidia briefly got its hands on the “world’s most valuable company” crown again last week, as its market cap touched $3.53 trillion, slightly above Apple’s $3.52 trillion, before it fell back below the iPhone-maker. Nvidia’s recent performance remains exceptional compared to its chipmaking peers, and the rest of the Magnificent Seven, many of whom are Nvidia’s biggest customers.

Nvidia vs. Apple
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That performance suggests that investors are once again expecting another blowout quarter for Nvidia when it reports earnings on November 20th. But, now more than a year into the company’s revelation that it was printing billions of dollars from its Data Center business, can it keep surprising the market?

Nvidia beats and misses
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Interestingly, tracking the surprise on revenue and earnings through FactSet reveals that Wall Street’s analysts have generally been getting closer and closer in the last few quarters. In the last 5 quarters, Nvidia has beaten expectations on revenue by: 21%, 12%, 8%, 6%, and 5%. The earnings surprises have similarly narrowed: 30%, 19%, 12%, 9%, and 5%. Can Jensen Huang and Nvidia surprise everyone once again? Given the way the stock has traded in the last month — up 16% — investors seem confident.

Related reading: Why Nvidia is the Bo Jackson of the stock market.

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Alaska Airlines dips following weaker-than-expected 2026 earnings guidance

Alaska Airlines, America’s fifth-largest airline, reported its fourth-quarter and full-year results for 2025 after the market closed Thursday. Its shares fell 2% in after hours trading.

The airline reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of $0.43 per share, beating the $0.11 expected by Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet. Its Q4 passenger revenue climbed 2% to $3.25 billion.

For the current quarter, Alaska guided for a 1% to 2% increase in capacity and an adjusted loss of $1.50 to $0.50 per share, compared to the $0.77 loss per share expected by analysts. The airline forecast full-year earnings of between $3.50 and $6.50 per share for 2026. The $5 per share midpoint falls short of analyst estimates of $5.52.

“To hit the higher end of our guidance range we would require sustained macroeconomic recovery in 2026, at or improving on trends seen in the first three weeks of the year, and for fuel prices to stabilize,” the company said in its report.

Earlier this month, the carrier placed its largest ever plane order, securing 110 Boeing jets to support its international growth ambitions. It plans to add flights to Rome, London, and Iceland this summer, and has said it will boost its premium seat offerings this year — in-line with a wider trend of travel trends reflecting a “K-shaped economy.”

Intel Logo In front of Building

Intel slumps after Q1 guidance disappoints

The bad outlook offset strong Q4 results.

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Plug Power jumps amid surge in call activity as CEO Andy Marsh hosts AMA

Plug Power surged on Thursday, jumping nearly 17% amid elevated call activity as outgoing CEO Andy Marsh hosted an “ask me anything” on the r/PlugPowerStock subreddit.

As many as 192,581 call options changed hands, more than 4x the 20-day average — call options with a strike price of $4 that expire in mid-June were the most active contract.

Marsh’s appearance was aimed at building support for the board’s recommendations that its investors vote in favor of three proposals at a special meeting of shareholders slated for next week. These proposals include: allowing votes to be decided by a majority of voters rather than a majority of shareholders, enabling an increase in the company’s share count, and a third measure to delay this special meeting in the event that there aren’t enough votes for either of those two proposals to pass.

During the session, Marsh made the following points:

  • Management really doesn’t want to have to do a reverse stock split, but would feel forced to do so if the second proposal fails to pass. Per a recent filing from Plug, “Without additional authorized shares, the Company will not be able to: meet its contractual obligations to increase authorized shares of common stock by February 28, 2026; raise capital necessary for operations and growth; and execute on its business plans and strategy.”

  • Plug plans to lean even more into opportunities to offer power to AI data center customers, with Marsh writing that incoming CEO Jose Luis Crespo will offer more details on this in a follow-up AMA scheduled for March.

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Meta shares rally as Jefferies says it’s a bargain relative to Mag 7 peers

Shares of Meta rallied over 5% on Thursday, as Jefferies analyst Brent Thill doubled down on his buy rating for the company, calling the stock a relative bargain compared to its Magnificent 7 peers. The analyst set a price target of $910, well above the $645 where the stock is trading today.

News out of the World Economic Forum this week that Meta’s first models from its revamped AI teams are very goodaligns with Thill’s argument that the company is well positioned to get back in the AI race with the “all-star model,” which is expected to be released in the first half of the year.

Recent cuts to Meta’s Reality Labs also signal that the company is focusing its spending where it matters. The Jefferies note added that the recent monetization of Threads via ads will help boost revenue.

Next week, Meta reports its fourth-quarter earnings, and Thill expects that even if the company raises its 2026 capital expenditure outlook, investors won’t be spooked, as the company has been clear that spending may continue to be high.

Recent cuts to Meta’s Reality Labs also signal that the company is focusing its spending where it matters. The Jefferies note added that the recent monetization of Threads via ads will help boost revenue.

Next week, Meta reports its fourth-quarter earnings, and Thill expects that even if the company raises its 2026 capital expenditure outlook, investors won’t be spooked, as the company has been clear that spending may continue to be high.

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