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Big bank shares buckle as recession fears spark a sector sell-off

The financials sector has now lost all of its gains for the year.

Nia Warfield

Big banks tumbled alongside the broader market late Monday afternoon. Shares of Morgan Stanley led the decline, sinking 6.4%, while Wells Fargo, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America also dropped.

The sell-off follows President Trump’s latest comments to Fox News, describing the US economy as being in a “period of transition” and sparking fresh uncertainty over tariff policies and recession fears. The XLF SPDR Financial ETF, which tracks the sector, has wiped out all of its gains for the year and is now down slightly.

Financials had a solid 2024, but they’ve been hit hard of late. Last week, the sector endured one of its worst sessions since the SVB banking crisis in March 2023. Meanwhile, February’s jobs report came in below expectations, with only 151,000 nonfarm payrolls added — 9,000 less than expected. Banks are cyclical, so any sign of economic weakness can raise red flags for investors, since it can lead to higher loan losses and a slowdown in lending if consumer spending and business growth stalls.

In January, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon noted that rising unemployment remains a key vulnerability, warning that higher joblessness, combined with inflation, could drive significant credit losses across both the consumer and corporate sides. Last week, Goldman Sachs slashed its 2025 growth forecast, cutting it from 2.4% to 1.7%, citing tariff concerns and a stubbornly tight labor market.

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Nvidia gains on report that Chinese officials told domestic tech champions to progress with plans for H200 imports

The “will Xi, won’t Xi?” of Nvidia’s quest to send AI chips to China got some positive news, reversing a string of recent negative reports.

Per Bloomberg, Chinese officials told leading domestic tech champions including Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance that they can progress in their preparations to import Nvidia’s H200 chips, and “are now cleared to discuss specifics such as the amounts they would require,” citing people familiar with the matter.

Shares are up 1.5% as of 8:06 a.m. ET.

The outlet had previously reported that China would begin to allow H200 imports for commercial use “as soon as this quarter.” However, that was followed by reports from The Information, the Financial Times, and Reuters that Chinese companies’ ability to access these AI chips would be limited and that suppliers had paused production following what was tantamount to an import ban.

The seemingly conflicting reports from various outlets reflect the tug-of-war within the Chinese policy apparatus, which aims to balance competing priorities: bolstering its AI capabilities (which argues for using the best technology available, even if that’s from foreign sources) and supporting the development of its domestic semiconductor manufacturing industry (which pushes in the opposite direction).

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Alaska Airlines dips following weaker-than-expected 2026 earnings guidance

Alaska Airlines, America’s fifth-largest airline, reported its fourth-quarter and full-year results for 2025 after the market closed Thursday. Its shares fell 2% in after-hours trading.

The airline reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of $0.43 per share, beating the $0.11 expected by Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet. Its Q4 passenger revenue climbed 2% to $3.25 billion.

For the current quarter, Alaska guided for a 1% to 2% increase in capacity and an adjusted loss of $1.50 to $0.50 per share, compared to the $0.77 loss per share expected by analysts. The airline forecast full-year earnings of between $3.50 and $6.50 per share for 2026. The $5 midpoint falls short of analyst estimates of $5.52 per share.

“To hit the higher end of our guidance range we would require sustained macroeconomic recovery in 2026, at or improving on trends seen in the first three weeks of the year, and for fuel prices to stabilize,” the company said in its report.

Earlier this month, the carrier placed its largest-ever plane order, securing 110 Boeing jets to support its international growth ambitions. It plans to add flights to Rome, London, and Iceland this summer, and has said it will boost its premium seat offerings this year — in line with a wider trend of travel trends reflecting a “K-shaped economy.”

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