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Claire Yubin Oh10/15/25

ASML rises after Q3 bookings came in 10% ahead of estimates, offsetting a weak outlook in its China business

ASML shares are up over 4% in European trading on Wednesday after the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker reported 5.4 billion euros ($6.3 billion) in bookings in the third quarter, roughly ~10% ahead of the 4.9 billion euros expected by analysts (Bloomberg consensus estimates).

After striking a much more cautious tone in July, the company’s strong outlook for the remaining year helped reassure investors, despite realized revenues actually coming in a touch light relative to expectations in the quarter.

In Q3, the company has “seen continued positive momentum around investments in AI, and have also seen this extending to more customers,” ASML President and CEO Christophe Fouquet said in the press release. He added, “We do not expect 2026 total net sales to be below 2025.”

Europe’s largest company now expects fourth-quarter sales between 9.2 billion and 9.8 billion euros, with a gross margin of 51% to 53%, finishing the full year with 15% growth in total net sales. The lithography systems maker is also now targeting 60 billion euros of revenue in 2030, up from 28.3 billion euros last year.

The only significant blemish in the report was China. Responsible for ~42% of its net system sales this quarter, revenue from China will “decline significantly compared to our very strong business there in 2024 and 2025,” Fouquet said.

ASML has seen its stock rally nearly 30% this year as the dominant supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines needed to produce sophisticated chips.

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Markets droop as AI credit fears grow and jobs report looms

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all slumped on Monday.

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To AI-nfinity... and beyond!

Deutsche Bank highlights four roadblocks for tech CEOs’ obsession: Data centers in space

The good news: “There are clearly technical challenges to making this a viable endeavor but these seem to be engineering constraints as opposed to physics,” per Deutsche Bank.

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Matt Phillips13h

Bitcoin-sensitive stocks hammered as crypto declines

Bitcoin-sensitive stocks tumbled Monday, enduring a much steeper drop than the keystone crypto asset itself, which was down nearly 4%, falling below $87,000, as of 12:20 p.m. ET.

Goldman Sachs’ themed basket of bitcoin-sensitive equities was down more than 8%. (It consists of companies tied to bitcoin, either through mining, digital payments, crypto investment, or blockchain technology.) It was one of the worst performers among Goldman’s thematically curated baskets of shares on Monday.

Among the basket’s constituents, miners Cipher Mining, CleanSpark, Hut 8, TeraWulf, and IREN were getting the worst of it.

At midday, the basket was on its way to its worst day since November 24, when bitcoin was also languishing below $90,000 and the broader tech sector was going through a brief downturn related to rising worries about durability of the AI boom.

Among the basket’s constituents, miners Cipher Mining, CleanSpark, Hut 8, TeraWulf, and IREN were getting the worst of it.

At midday, the basket was on its way to its worst day since November 24, when bitcoin was also languishing below $90,000 and the broader tech sector was going through a brief downturn related to rising worries about durability of the AI boom.

GameStop rallies on bullish options activity as Michael Burry teases post

And let’s not sell the artist formerly known as “Best Buy Rilie” short, either.

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Nvidia’s favorite stocks are getting shellacked as AI credit risk spreads

Nvidia’s “House of GPUs” is looking a little wobbly.

Shares of Applied Digital, CoreWeave, and Nebius — three of the four biggest equity positions held by the chip designer as of September 30 — are getting crushed on Monday.

Nvidia owned about $3.6 billion worth of these data center and neocloud stocks (with the overwhelming majority in CoreWeave) per its most recent 13F filing.

The AI credit risk that’s been most talked about in reference to Oracle’s widening credit default swaps spreads is also present in some of these firms, as well.

An Applied Digital bond due in 2030 is trading below $96 for the first time this month. That issuance was made to support data centers where CoreWeave will be the main tenant.

CoreWeave, which earlier this year received warrants enabling it to purchase a large chunk of Applied Digital shares as part of a data center leasing deal, sank last week after announcing a $2 billion convertible note offering that was later upsized.

Of course, it’s not just Nvidia-owned stocks, but the entire data center ecosystem that’s under pressure on Monday. Cipher Mining and IREN are also getting walloped — with Monday’s crypto tumble also likely weighing on these two bitcoin miners turned data center companies.

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