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In this photo illustration, an AppLovin logo is displayed on...
AppLovin logo displayed on the screen of an iPad (Sheldon Cooper/Getty Images)

AppLovin craters on competitive threats from Meta, new AI tools, and a slower ramp of its new ad portal

However, Q4 results beat, and the Q1 outlook was also above estimates.

Luke Kawa

The bottom is falling out of AppLovin despite solid results and a better-than-expected outlook, as investors remain focused on the competitive threats from both new AI entrants as well as Meta and a warning that its new ad portal may not move the needle on the company’s financials in short order.

The ad tech company reported a top- and bottom-line beat for Q4, with guidance for the current quarter to match. Shares initially tanked in after-hours trading, but recovered a chunk of their losses ahead of the conference call.

  • Revenues: $1.66 billion (estimate: $1.61 billion, guidance for $1.57 billion to $1.6 billion).

  • Adjusted EBITDA: $1.4 billion (estimate: $1.33 billion, guidance for $1.29 billion to $1.32 billion).

For Q1, management said sales would range from $1.75 billion to $1.78 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $1.47 billion to $1.5 billion.

Wall Street had expected $1.7 billion and $1.4 billion, respectively.

On the call, CEO Adam Foroughi flagged a “disconnect between market sentiment and the reality of our business,” saying that the company was enjoying its strongest operating performance ever thanks to the growth in its own AI models.

Shares resumed their slide during the call after Chief Financial Officer Matt Stumpf said its self-service ad portal was not yet ready for a general launch, adding that it would be a while before this channel would impact the company’s overall numbers. After its Q2 report in August, Foroughi predicted that Q4 would be “a fun quarter” marked by the initial phase of the rollout of that ad portal.

“eCommerce, the wildcard in the Q, did not surprise to the upside leaving us too high; we estimate the October ‘Referral’ cohort contributed ~$34 million (vs. BofA $110) of ~$245 million (vs. BofA $335) total eCommerce revenue,” wrote Bank of America analyst Omar Dessouky. “About half our clients expected a higher eCommerce contribution like we did.”

The company fielded more questions on the call on the competitive threat from Meta, which has been able to muscle its way into a bigger market share on iOS, than new AI entrants.

In 2026, things haven’t been too fun for AppLovin. It’s a software stock, which means it’s been bludgeoned due to fears surrounding competitive threats from new AI tools and entrants. Ahead of this report, shares closed down more than 3% on Wednesday after peer Unity Software’s Q1 guidance came in shy of expectations.

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United beats Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, lowers full-year profit guidance amid surging jet fuel prices

United Airlines reported its first-quarter earnings results after the bell on Tuesday. The carrier’s shares ticked down in after-hours trading.

For Q1, United reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, compared to the Wall Street estimate of $1.08 per share compiled by FactSet.

  • $14.6 billion in revenue, compared to the $14.39 billion consensus estimate.

In the first quarter, United’s fuel expense grew 12.6% from the same period last year to $3.04 billion.

For the second quarter, United expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1 and $2, shy of Wall Street expectations of $2.08. For the full year ahead, United said it expects earnings between $7 and $11 per share, compared to its prior guidance of between $12 and $14 per share.

“Guidance assumes United’s revenue recovers 40% to 50% of the fuel price increases in the second quarter, 70% to 80% of the fuel price increases in the third quarter and 85% to 100% of the fuel price increases in the fourth quarter 2026,” read the company’s investor update.

Earlier this month, United was among the first major US airlines to hike its bag fees amid higher fuel costs. Its shares have fallen more than 15% from a February high days before the war in Iran began.

United has also made waves this month following reports that CEO Scott Kirby had floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines to President Trump. A merger between two of the big four airlines would create a true US behemoth, controlling more than a third of the American market. American Air last week said it wasn’t interested in merging with United and hadn’t held talks on the idea. On Tuesday, Trump told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea either.

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Hedge funds are following retail traders into the Magnificent 7

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the stocks the masses never stopped buying.

“As we kick off earnings for megacap tech stocks, this stood out: [hedge funds] have started buying Mag7 stocks again this month though positioning remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2016,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Cullen Morgan.

Goldman PB Mag 7
Source: Goldman Sachs

In early April, JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail investors had basically been selling everything but the Magnificent 7 stocks as part of a more cautious stance due to the Iran war.

(Apple has been a long-standing exception to this trend, presumably because retail traders arent fond of its hands-off approach to AI.)

JPM Retail flows

Last August, Jain discussed how retail activity tended to “crowd in” institutional buyers in meme stocks, while Goldman’s John Marshall advised clients to piggyback on stocks beloved by retail traders. Speculative, retail-geared assets proceeded to go on a tremendous run that soured in October.

But there are some early indications that a similar bout of speculative fervor is bubbling up once more.

markets

POET Technologies surges above $10 for first time in 4 years amid explosion in call volumes

POET Technologies is up nearly 40% this week as options market activity goes haywire in a faint echo of what got the stock on retail traders’ radars in October.

As of 11:12 a.m. ET, more than 10 calls have changed hands for every put traded. This bullish impulse has propelled the stock above the $10 threshold for the first time since March 2022.

Shares of the optical communications firm briefly dipped last week after Wolfpack Research said it was short the company because its investors would be exposed to an “IRS tax nightmare.”

The company responded that day saying it was taking measures for US shareholders that “should mitigate certain potential adverse US federal income tax consequences to it that could otherwise result from the Company’s status as a passive foreign investment company.”

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