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In this photo illustration, an AppLovin logo is displayed on...
AppLovin logo displayed on the screen of an iPad (Sheldon Cooper/Getty Images)

AppLovin craters on competitive threats from Meta, new AI tools, and a slower ramp of its new ad portal

However, Q4 results beat, and the Q1 outlook was also above estimates.

Luke Kawa

The bottom is falling out of AppLovin despite solid results and a better-than-expected outlook, as investors remain focused on the competitive threats from both new AI entrants as well as Meta and a warning that its new ad portal may not move the needle on the company’s financials in short order.

The ad tech company reported a top- and bottom-line beat for Q4, with guidance for the current quarter to match. Shares initially tanked in after-hours trading, but recovered a chunk of their losses ahead of the conference call.

  • Revenues: $1.66 billion (estimate: $1.61 billion, guidance for $1.57 billion to $1.6 billion).

  • Adjusted EBITDA: $1.4 billion (estimate: $1.33 billion, guidance for $1.29 billion to $1.32 billion).

For Q1, management said sales would range from $1.75 billion to $1.78 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $1.47 billion to $1.5 billion.

Wall Street had expected $1.7 billion and $1.4 billion, respectively.

On the call, CEO Adam Foroughi flagged a “disconnect between market sentiment and the reality of our business,” saying that the company was enjoying its strongest operating performance ever thanks to the growth in its own AI models.

Shares resumed their slide during the call after Chief Financial Officer Matt Stumpf said its self-service ad portal was not yet ready for a general launch, adding that it would be a while before this channel would impact the company’s overall numbers. After its Q2 report in August, Foroughi predicted that Q4 would be “a fun quarter” marked by the initial phase of the rollout of that ad portal.

“eCommerce, the wildcard in the Q, did not surprise to the upside leaving us too high; we estimate the October ‘Referral’ cohort contributed ~$34 million (vs. BofA $110) of ~$245 million (vs. BofA $335) total eCommerce revenue,” wrote Bank of America analyst Omar Dessouky. “About half our clients expected a higher eCommerce contribution like we did.”

The company fielded more questions on the call on the competitive threat from Meta, which has been able to muscle its way into a bigger market share on iOS, than new AI entrants.

In 2026, things haven’t been too fun for AppLovin. It’s a software stock, which means it’s been bludgeoned due to fears surrounding competitive threats from new AI tools and entrants. Ahead of this report, shares closed down more than 3% on Wednesday after peer Unity Software’s Q1 guidance came in shy of expectations.

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Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

  • EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.

  • Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemons geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected halo effect across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemons valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retails richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi ONeill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brands growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

markets

US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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