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Luke Kawa

Anthropic’s legal plug-in for Claude Cowork prompts rush out of legal software and publishing stocks

The threat of AI disruption has wreaked havoc upon software stocks over the past few months, with more powerful tools launched by Anthropic a catalyst for the selling. True to form, thanks to some new plug-ins recently added to Claude Cowork, legal software and publishing companies are facing intense selling pressure.

Anthropic, the maker of Claude, rolled out a series of plug-ins on Friday that could be added to Cowork for paying subscribers. One of them specializes in legal tasks, to “review documents, flag risks, and track compliance.”

Shares of RELX (owner of Lexis Nexis), Thomson Reuters (owner of Westlaw), and Legalzoom.com are getting hammered in premarket trading on Tuesday. One distinction: the first two companies offer proprietary data, which may insulate them a little better from the analytical threat from Claude, while LegalZoom’s business of providing legal services may be more directly threatened by the relatively low barrier to entry of using Claude Cowork instead.

Perhaps these fresh capabilities from Claude explain why the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF dropped more than 2% on Friday and continued to struggle on Monday. Other plug-ins help with productivity, enterprise search, sales, finance, data, marketing, customer support, product management, and biology research, as well as a meta plug-in to create and customize other plug-ins.

Even without plug-ins, there have been many tales of legal professionals and laypeople alike turning to chatbots for help in this domain. Per Business Insider, short seller Andrew Left has turned to Claude to analyze legal documents and draft letters after facing allegations of market manipulation.

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Report: Boeing could unveil 500-jet order from China during Trump’s visit later this month

Shares of Boeing are up nearly 4% on Friday afternoon, following a Bloomberg report that the company could be close to finalizing a deal to sell 500 planes to China.

The deal was first reported in August and would be one of Boeing’s largest ever.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

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Why software shares are withstanding the war jitters

The outbreak of the war in Iran has clearly rattled investors and created a few clear winners — mostly energy stocks — and losers — consumer staples, airlines, and, well, more or else everything else.

But there is one interesting outlier to that Manichaean market dynamic.

Software shares — often the same companies that the market was giving up for dead just a few weeks ago due to overexpectations of an AI-driven disruption — have been holding up remarkably well.

These companies, including Intuit, ServiceNow, Datadog, Snowflake, IBM, Workday, and Oracle, have actually had a pretty decent run since the war started with a combined US-Israeli attack on Iran last weekend.

A new note from RBC Capital’s Rishi Jaluria suggests this isn’t just a fluke. Looking at the performance of software stocks during periods of geopolitical stress and market volatility over the last 10 and 25 years, his team found that software shares appear fairly well insulated when these broader shocks hit. RBC wrote:

“The defensive nature of SaaS models and the mission-critical nature of many core software systems at the enterprise level (e.g., in the absence of mass layoffs that may create seat-based headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty and/or market volatility typically will not cause an enterprise CIO to consider ripping out their ERP, CRM, Cyber systems, etc.”

I briefly got Jaluria on the phone yesterday, and he explained a bit more about why he thinks investors might see software as a decent place to hide out from the current chaos.

“With everything in the Middle East, you have to think about not just oil and gas input prices but also supply chains,” he said. “With software, you’re not really thinking about that.”

In other words, there is no equivalent of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz that software investors have to worry about.

Others suggested that the near-term profitability of these giant software companies — aside from concerns about potential long-term disruption from AI — may look different in the face of the economic uncertainty that seems to be growing with the war, especially after a sell-off that has left them relatively attractively valued.

Mark Moerdler, who covers software stocks for Bernstein Research, says that while the AI worries are clearly real, software companies continue to be highly productive cash cows.

“Everyone is afraid that AI is a massive disruptor, and all these articles you read talk about AI as massive disruptor or the world is ending or whatever,” he said. “You don’t see it in the fundamental numbers of the companies I cover. They are delivering GAAP profits, free cash flow, and they’re good investment ideas.”

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