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Analysts parse IBM earnings, see weakness, stock slides

IBM is on track for its worst trading day in months.

10/23/25 10:00AM

After reporting results Wednesday, IBM is on track for its worst trading day since... well, the last time it reported earnings back in July, as analysts comb through the numbers and raise their collective eyebrow at a couple of different issues.

They highlighted sluggish growth in the company’s transaction processing business — where IBM software is run directly on the mainframe systems used in high-security, high-transaction industries like airlines and banking.

They also called out softness in the company’s hybrid cloud business, built around IBM’s roughly $35 billion purchase of Red Hat in 2019. Companies using the hybrid cloud can connect systems hosted on the public cloud and on-site mainframes. But the results spotlighted a slowdown in actual revenue-generating usage, or consumption, of IBM’s hybrid cloud services by clients.

Here’s some of what analysts are saying:

Bank of America: “Transaction processing declined 3% in constant currency due to customers continuing to prioritize hardware spend over software, but transaction processing should reaccelerate as we move through the mainframe cycle.”

Evercore ISI: “The big question on the print was the deceleration in Red Hat (+12%) vs. expectations for mid-teens growth.”

BMO Capital: “We thought IBM’s quarter was reasonable, including better Software growth helped by HashiCorp, a return to growth in Consulting, and solid margins/free cash flow, though Red Hat and transaction processing were disappointing, which we think could drive near-term consolidation in the shares.”

RBC Capital: “The focus remains around Red Hat which decelerated growing 14%, 12% [in constant currency] compared to 16%, 14% [constant currency] last quarter as management noted consumption headwinds.”

BNP Paribas: “Software growth of 9% [constant currency] fell short of cons. for the second straight quarter. Red Hat guidance also seemed to soften, now expected to accelerate to ‘low-end’ of mid-teens growth.”

Bernstein Research: “Red Hat deceleration appears to have been a worry driving shares down post market close, however the company showed strong bookings growth and confidence that this will help bring Red Hat back to mid-teens YoY growth. Transaction Processing was also weak due to (according to IBM) customers focusing more on mainframe IBM Z.”

Morgan Stanley: “Software growth accelerated as we previewed, but RedHat and TP — which collectively represent 53% of Software revenue — missed expectations again. Furthermore, we estimate organic Software growth in 3Q was just 5% Y/Y, below our 6% Y/Y forecast and management’s 7% target model. Lastly, for the first time in 12 quarters, gross margins missed expectations, a surprise to us.”

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Goldman hikes year-end gold price forecast to $5,400/oz as private investors and central banks compete for the shiny stuff

Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce, up from the previous $4,900 target, citing strong demand from private sector investors using gold as a hedge against global policy risks, according to a note released late Tuesday.

The revised price target reflects a 17% increase from January's month-to-date average price, with continued central bank buying as the biggest driver of the forecast (accounting for 14pp of the expected appreciation), while ETF inflows add another 3pp — supported by an assumed Fed rate cut this year.

Central banks have been on a gold-buying spree since 2022, after the freezing of Russia's foreign reserves, helping push prices up 15% in 2023 and 26% in 2024. But Goldman analysts note that the rally accelerated in 2025 as competition between central banks and private investors for the limited bullion intensified — driving prices up another 67% last year, with recent tensions over Greenland only adding to the momentum.

That private-sector demand now extends well beyond ETF inflows. Goldman says buying is increasingly coming from a new class of investors seeking protection against macro-policy risk and currency "debasement," including purchases from high-net-worth families and call-option buying — flows that are "hard to track" but have become a "significant incremental source of demand."

Goldman assumes these macro-related "sticky" hedges will persist through 2026 — unlike those tied to the 2024 US election, which unwound quickly once the outcome was clear.

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Alibaba jumps on report of a potential IPO for its AI chipmaking division

Alibaba ADRs are up 5% in premarket trading on Thursday after Bloomberg reported that the cloud and e-commerce giant is preparing to list its chipmaking division, looking to capitalize on strong investor interest in AI.

Citing people familiar with the matter, the Chinese tech giant is reportedly looking to first restructure the unit, known as T-Head, into a partially employee-owned business, before exploring an IPO, though the specific timing for this process remains uncertain.

Though Alibaba’s IPO plans are still at an early stage, with T-Head’s valuation expectations still unclear, recent debuts by rival Chinese chipmakers like Moore Threads Technology have attracted strong interest from investors, jumping 400%+ on its first day after raising $1.13 billion.

Alibaba has also been investing aggressively into AI in the past year, committing more than $53 billion to develop its cloud and AI infrastructure. Last week, the company upgraded Qwen — its flagship AI app — to function more like an agentic chatbot able to place orders for food, book travel, and execute other tasks, as the company pushes further into consumer-facing AI.

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GameStop jumps after CEO Ryan Cohen purchases another 500,000 shares

Ryan Cohen is putting his money where his mouth is.

The GameStop CEO bought another 500,000 shares of company stock for $10.8 million on Wednesday, per a filing.

The stock was trading higher on Wednesday thanks to Cohen’s purchase of 500,000 shares for roughly $10.6 million on Tuesday, extended the gains in the after-hours session on the news, and is now up 3% in premarket trading, as of 4:45 a.m. ET.

“The Reporting Person believes that it is essential for the Chief Executive Officer of any public company to purchase shares of such company in the open market with his or her own personal funds in order to further strengthen alignment with stockholders,” per the filing. “The Reporting Person believes that any Chief Executive Officer who fails to do so should be fired.”

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AppLovin tumbles; company dismisses negative report as “false, misleading, and nonsensical”

AppLovin managed to finish Tuesday well off its lows after initially getting clobbered in the wake of an incendiary report published by CapitalWatch.

Nonetheless, shares are getting torched on Wednesday, ending down nearly 6%. An AppLovin spokesperson forcefully denied the allegations made by CapitalWatch, which included calling the ad tech firm “the ultimate monument to 21st-century new-type transnational financial crime.”

Per an emailed statement:

“We categorically reject the claims made in this report, which is rife with false, misleading, and nonsensical allegations. AppLovin’s public filings transparently disclose our material investments, global operations, and information regarding significant shareholders.”

“Claims that AppLovin facilitated money laundering or its products are used for unauthorized downloads are patently false. AppLovin functions within a broader ecosystem that includes major app stores, operating systems, and payment providers, and the apps monetized through our platform must be publicly available on the major app stores and subject to their independent review and enforcement. Economically, the money laundering theory is implausible: publishers receive only a portion of advertiser spend, meaning any attempt to ‘launder’ funds would require forfeiting a substantial share while creating a highly visible, auditable transaction trail across multiple independent companies. Accepting the report’s premise would therefore imply a systemic failure across the broader mobile advertising and app-store ecosystem, for which the report provides no evidence.”

AppLovin craters after report from CapitalWatch alleges it’s a money-laundering operation for “transnational criminal kingpins”

Per an emailed statement:

“We categorically reject the claims made in this report, which is rife with false, misleading, and nonsensical allegations. AppLovin’s public filings transparently disclose our material investments, global operations, and information regarding significant shareholders.”

“Claims that AppLovin facilitated money laundering or its products are used for unauthorized downloads are patently false. AppLovin functions within a broader ecosystem that includes major app stores, operating systems, and payment providers, and the apps monetized through our platform must be publicly available on the major app stores and subject to their independent review and enforcement. Economically, the money laundering theory is implausible: publishers receive only a portion of advertiser spend, meaning any attempt to ‘launder’ funds would require forfeiting a substantial share while creating a highly visible, auditable transaction trail across multiple independent companies. Accepting the report’s premise would therefore imply a systemic failure across the broader mobile advertising and app-store ecosystem, for which the report provides no evidence.”

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