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Analysts break down what’s driving SoFi’s recent surge

Part of the rally is related to the federal government’s retreat from student lending. But there’s more to it.

Matt Phillips

SoFi Technologies has been an under-the-radar winner since the market’s tariff-related tumble earlier this year. It’s up roughly 200% from the market’s April 8 low, with the shares hitting an all-time closing high of $29.81 on September 22.

It’s easy to explain some of the upswing. SoFi beat expectations and raised guidance in both its Q1 and Q2 earnings reports.

But rising estimates can’t explain all the price appreciation, as the company’s forward price-to-earnings ratio has risen sharply from under 30x in April to roughly 55x.

Fintech analysts led by Devin Ryan at Citizens JMP Securities laid out their views on the stock’s drivers in a note published Thursday, saying that SoFi’s diversification into crypto and brokerage offerings is positioning the company for a profitable addition to its core consumer lending activities.

They wrote:

“We see more opportunity in Brokerage; the company can add new revenue streams from tokenization and Stablecoins; the Technology business appears to be inflecting positively, and just in recent days the press reported that the White House is weighing options to sell off parts of the federal government’s $1.6T student loan portfolio to the private market.

While details are limited, we interpret this as further signals that the U.S. government is looking to detach further from the student loan market (Big Beautiful Bill provided other provisions), which we believe could reignite momentum as activity accelerates to the private market (both initial loans and refinance opportunities...

On the flipside, given the current valuation, we do think any economic hiccup could weigh on shares in the near term, even though we are confident in SoFi’s ability to navigate an inevitable eventual macro slowdown.”

All that said, Wall Street is far from wildly bullish on the stock. The average price target from analysts tracked by FactSet is just $22, implying a 20% drop from current levels.

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Investors just made a mammoth $133 billion flip from cash to stocks, per Goldman Sachs

It’s a dash from cash, with investors taking billions in dry powder and pouring that money into the stock market.

“We saw strong net flows into global equity funds last week, led by stronger inflows into US and EM equity funds (+$71 billion vs $2 billion in the previous week) — more than 35x-ed the flows,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Gail Hafif, Brian Garrett, and Lee Coppersmith. “While equity flows increase, money market fund assets fell by $62 billion. This is the 3rd largest level in our dataset (!).”

Goldman cash to stocks flows

The trio is bullish on US stocks, seeing “the case for contained selloffs coupled with relief rallies as the most likely path forward in the near term.”

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Moderna extends rally on positive cancer vaccine results

Moderna has more than doubled since it announced on Tuesday that its cancer vaccine reduced the risk of relapse or death for melanoma patients.

The five-year data from a Phase 2b trial showed that Moderna’s vaccine, when used with Merck’s blockbuster treatment Keytruda, reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49% compared with Keytruda alone. The news gave investors hope that Moderna, which is best known for quickly developing a COVID-19 vaccine, may soon have another lucrative product in its portfolio.

Last week, Moderna said it expects to report total 2025 revenue of $1.9 billion, on the high end of its latest guidance of between $1.6 billion and $2 billion, amid better-than-expected vaccination rates. As demand for the COVID-19 vaccine, its sole revenue-generating product, has tanked, the company has aggressively cut costs and focused on expanding its portfolio.

The combination of positive announcements early in the year has made Moderna the second-best performer in the S&P 500 Index in 2026, behind newfound AI darling Sandisk.

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POET Technologies tumbles after announcing $150 million direct share offering

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It’s an opportunity for management to cash in on the stock’s more than 30% rally year to date (as of Wednesday’s close).

“With a substantial base of cash, we plan to accelerate our pursuit of targeted acquisitions, add to our capabilities and talent base, vertically integrate our products with differentiated components, and expand operations to pursue revenue opportunities across the board, in order to bring long-term value to shareholders,” Executive Chairman and CEO Dr. Suresh Venkatesan said.

POET’s last offering came in late October, after which shares nearly halved in less than a month amid a broad drawdown in speculative, volatile stocks beloved by retail traders.

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Oracle gains amid report that the TikTok deal is poised to close this week

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The transaction is poised to close this week, per the report, citing people familiar with the situation.

In mid-December, Oracle booked a huge gain after the CEO of TikTok owner ByteDance indicated that he’d signed contracts with Oracle and the other major investors leading this consortium, private equity firm Silver Lake and Abu Dhabi-backed tech investment company MGX.

If, as previous reporting suggested, the transaction values TikTok’s US operations at about $14 billion, that would mark a fairly low price tag for a lot of eyeballs and ad dollars. This pact will also afford Oracle’s cloud business an opportunity to deepen its preexisting relationship with TikTok.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.