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Analyst: “Longer-term vectors that drive the stock’s value” haven’t changed for Tesla

A longtime Tesla bull on yesterday’s market meshugas.

6/6/25 11:39AM

Longtime Tesla bull Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley is out with a note putting a characteristically optimistic spin on yesterday’s high-profile feud between Elon Musk and the president. He writes:

“1. Credits. We do not believe the phasing out of EV tax credits from the BBB (Big Beautiful Bill) is material to the long term outlook for TSLA.
2. Distraction. We believe Tesla’s recent 50% rally was driven primarily by hopes that Elon Musk would refocus time and attention on Tesla.
3. Cars. While the situation remains fluid, we believe the disagreement will not help Tesla demand but could potentially (temporarily) alienate multiple sides of the political spectrum.
4. Bigger picture. While emotions are running high, we are not convinced the longer-term vectors that drive the stock’s value have changed here. AI leadership, autonomy/robotics, manufacturing, supply chain re-architecture, renewable power, critical infrastructure... Tesla still holds so many valuable cards that are largely apolitical, in our opinion.
5. Volatility. When putting our trading cap on, we have higher conviction in near-term volatility than near-term direction. We reiterate our $410 price target but are prepared for the stock to give up more than just the 4 weeks of performance it has sacrificed so far.”

True-to-form Jonas remains one of the most optimistic Wall Street analysts on the company, with a $410 share price on the stock, about a 35% premium to where the stock was trading midday Friday and far higher than the Wall Street consensus price target of $308.

Jonas writes that his optimism is based on his “belief that Tesla’s capabilities in key areas of physical AI (autonomous vehicles, humanoids and other form factors) including data, robotics, energy storage, compute, manufacturing and space/comms/networking/infrastructure offer growth and margin opportunities that greatly exceed those of the traditional EV business,” adding that “the challenges facing Tesla’s current business are widely reported and well known, while the opportunities in the future business are potentially greatly underestimated.”

CAMARILLO, CA FEBRUARY 09: A cannabis farm worker de-leafs cann

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J. Edward Moreno2h

Max Knoblauch3h

Rivian climbs as it rolls out a “universal hands-free” update and scores an upgrade from Baird

Shares of EV maker Rivian are on pace for their 10th best day of 2025 on Thursday, following an upgrade from Baird to “buy” from “hold” and the rollout of its new hands-free driving update.

Baird raised its price target on Rivian nearly 79% to $25, writing that “2026 is the year of R2.”

Meanwhile, Rivian says its new hands-free feature will allow drivers to take their hands off the wheel across 3.5 million miles of US and Canadian roads.

Despite referring to it as “universal hands-free” driving, the EV maker says the feature will not stop or slow for traffic lights or stop signs, follow navigation systems, or make turns, and will function only on roads with visible lane lines.

Rivian revealed the update at its AI Day last week, when it also hinted at a robotaxi plan.

Rivian rolls out new 'Universal Hands-Free' driving feature | TechCrunch

Meanwhile, Rivian says its new hands-free feature will allow drivers to take their hands off the wheel across 3.5 million miles of US and Canadian roads.

Rivian revealed the update at its AI Day last week, when it also hinted at a robotaxi plan.

Matt Phillips4h

The stock market loves your rising electricity bill

Utilities with a footprint in the massive PJM Interconnection, the country’s largest power grid, were up Thursday after prices set in a key auction hit a record high of $333.44 per megawatt-day.

Such power providers, including Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, and Vistra, saw tidy gains shortly before midday.

“This auction leaves no doubt that data centers’ demand for electricity continues to far outstrip new supply, and the solution will require concerted action involving PJM, its stakeholders, state and federal partners, and the data center industry itself,” Stu Bresler, set to become PJM’s chief operating officer next month, told Reuters.

As I’ve previously mused, political pushback from high power prices, partially created by the AI boom, could become a constraint on development of such sites. Democrats in the US Senate are now calling for hearings on the issue.

It’s fertile political soil. This morning’s US CPI report for November showed electricity prices up nearly 7% year over year, the highest since the tail end of the postpandemic inflation in April 2023.

Costs on Key US Grid Hit New Record, Testing Affordability

Luke Kawa5h

Micron’s earnings, soft inflation, and OpenAI valuation chatter revive speculative AI trade

The three biggest news events since markets closed yesterday are all helping spur a big bounce-back for the more speculative companies tied to AI:

Micron’s eye-popping Q2 guidance reaffirmed beyond a shadow of a doubt how hot AI demand continues to run in the near term.
While the data is undoubtedly messy, core CPI inflation decelerated by much more than anticipated in November. Lower rates are a clear positive for more marginal companies levered to the AI theme, whose stocks trade with a higher embedded risk of default and whose bonds have also been suggesting more credit risk as of late.
OpenAI reportedly getting its hands on more money (and commanding a higher valuation in the process) provides some semblance of valuation support for these firms and also a better fundamental foundation as well: more cash in CEO Sam Altman’s pockets means more cash he has to make good on commitments to OpenAI’s many suppliers.

Put together, the key news items since Wednesday’s close are producing massive gains for the likes of Bloom Energy, Cipher Mining, POET Technologies, CoreWeave, IREN, and Nebius.

Matt Phillips5h

GE Vernova upped to “buy” at Jefferies

GE Vernova is up early, enjoying the benefits of both a rebound in the AI data center trade and an upgrade to “buy” from analysts at Jefferies. In a note published on Thursday, they wrote:

“We upgrade to Buy. More positive on the outlook for Power (gas pricing & services visibility) and electrification yet shares are down since the December 9th Analyst Day. $815 PT up from $736. Gas turbine pricing continues to positively surprise and services provides visibility deeper into the 2030s, eventually offsetting gas equipment weakness.”

The target is slightly above the FactSet consensus price target of $753 on the stock, and implies a 23% premium to GE Vernova’s closing price on Wednesday. The stock is up almost 100% in 2025.