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America’s top 1% now holds nearly a third of household wealth

Stock market rallies have added trillions to the fortunes of the wealthiest people in the US.

The wealth of America’s top 1% surged to a record $52 trillion in the second quarter, according to new Federal Reserve data.

Every wealth group saw gains over the past year, but the biggest boost went to those at the upper end. While the bottom half’s wealth rose 6.3% from a year earlier, the top 1% saw their fortunes climb some 8.5%, now commanding nearly a third of the nation’s total wealth.

US 1% household wealth chart
Sherwood News

Indeed, that share has climbed steadily over the past 35 years, fueled largely by stock market gains. The top 1% now owns roughly half of all corporate equities and mutual fund shares, up from 42% in 1990. In contrast, just 12.8% of those assets are held by the bottom 90%, whose portfolios rely more heavily on real estate, a sector that lagged stocks through much of the last decade’s bull run — and again into 2025, per a note from Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research division last week.

Meanwhile, uneven wage growth is also driving the so called “K-shaped economy.” According to the Bank of America Institute, after-tax wages for low-income households grew just 0.9% year over year in August, the slowest pace since 2016. For higher earners, wage growth hit 3.6%, the fastest since late 2021.

Spreading (some of) the wealth

From a macro view, though, the picture isn’t entirely grim. With the top 40% of earners driving more than 60% of total US spending, Goldman Sachs estimates that “positive wealth effects” from rising asset prices have lifted annualized consumption growth by 0.3 percentage points in Q3, reversing a drag earlier this year. If asset prices keep pace with nominal GDP, that spending engine could keep humming into 2026.

Still, Goldman warns that a market pullback could quickly turn that boost into a slowdown. Moody’s chief economist, Mark Zandi, also told CNBC that an economy “powered in big part by the spending of the extraordinarily well-to-do” could face a “serious threat” if their portfolios start flashing more red than green.

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United beats Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, lowers full-year profit guidance amid surging jet fuel prices

United Airlines reported its first-quarter earnings results after the bell on Tuesday. The carrier’s shares ticked down in after hours trading.

For Q1, United reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, compared to the Wall Street estimate of $1.08 per share compiled by FactSet.

  • $14.6 billion in revenue, compared to the $14.39 billion estimates.

In the first quarter, United’s fuel expense grew 12.6% from the same period last year to $3.04 billion.

For the second quarter, United expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1 and $2, shy of Wall Street expectations of $2.08. For the full year ahead, United said it expects earnings between $7 and $11 per share, compared to its prior guidance of between $12 and $14 per share.

“Guidance assumes United’s revenue recovers 40% to 50% of the fuel price increases in the second quarter, 70% to 80% of the fuel price increases in the third quarter and 85% to 100% of the fuel price increases in the fourth quarter 2026,” read the company’s investor update.

Earlier this month, United was among the first major US airlines to hike its bag fees amid higher fuel costs. Its shares have fallen more than 15% from a February high days before the war in Iran began.

United has also made waves this month following reports that CEO Scott Kirby had floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines to President Trump. A merger between two of the big four airlines would create a true US behemoth, controlling more than a third of the American market. American Air last week said it wasn’t interested in merging with United and hadn’t held talks on the idea. On Tuesday, President Trump told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea either.

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Hedge funds are following retail traders into the Magnificent 7

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the stocks the masses never stopped buying.

“As we kick off earnings for megacap tech stocks, this stood out: [hedge funds] have started buying Mag7 stocks again this month though positioning remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2016,” writes Goldman Sachs’ Cullen Morgan.

Goldman PB Mag 7
Source: Goldman Sachs

In early April, JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail investors had basically been selling everything but the Magnificent 7 stocks as part of a more cautious stance due to the Iran war.

(Apple has been a longstanding exception to this trend, presumably because retail traders aren't fond of its hands-off approach to AI.)

JPM Retail flows

Last August, Jain discussed how retail activity tended to “crowd in” institutional buyers in meme stocks, while Goldman’s John Marshall advised clients to piggyback on stocks beloved by retail traders. Speculative, retail-geared assets proceeded to go on a tremendous run that soured in October.

But there are some early indications that a similar bout of speculative fervor is bubbling up once more.

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POET Technologies surges above $10 for first time in 4 years amid explosion in call volumes

POET Technologies is up nearly 40% this week as options market activity goes haywire in a faint echo of what got the stock on retail traders’ radars in October.

As of 11:12 a.m. ET, more than 10 calls have changed hands for every put traded. This bullish impulse has propelled the stock above the $10 threshold for the first time since March 2022.

Shares of the optical communications firm briefly dipped last week after Wolfpack Research said it was short the company because its investors would be exposed to an “IRS tax nightmare.”

The company responded that day saying it was taking measures for US shareholders that “should mitigate certain potential adverse US federal income tax consequences to it that could otherwise result from the Company’s status as a passive foreign investment company.”

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