Markets
markets

America now has more job seekers than available jobs

US job openings fell to 7.15 million in November, down from 7.45 million in the previous month, marking the lowest level since September 2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary report released Wednesday. 

The figure came in below all economist forecasts in a Bloomberg survey and declined across most industries, with the biggest pullback seen in leisure and hospitality, healthcare and social assistance, and transportation and warehousing. Only a few industries, including construction and retail, added jobs.

Hiring slowed as well, while layoffs declined to a six-month low, extending the “hire less, fire less” mode that has defined the US labor market for much of the past year — and that shift is making life even tougher not just for aspiring job switchers, but also for those trying to land a job in the first place.

Job seekers vs. job openings
Sherwood News

Job openings and unemployment are often two sides of the same coin. When one rises, the other typically falls — a relationship economists track to gauge labor market tightness, or how many jobs are available per unemployed person.

For much of the pandemic period, that balance was wildly skewed, with job seekers having more power as employers scrambled for workers to meet surging consumer demand and work through supply chain disruptions. At its peak in early 2022, there were roughly two job openings for every job seeker

With the hiring frenzy giving way to a painful correction, however, that ratio slipped below 1.0 in July, the first time in more than four years. And as of November, there are about 0.9 vacancies for every unemployed person, per BLS data, meaning job seekers now outnumber available roles.

New December data out this morning revealed that employers added fewer-than-expected 50,000 jobs last month, although the unemployment rate did tick down to 4.4%.

Job openings and unemployment are often two sides of the same coin. When one rises, the other typically falls — a relationship economists track to gauge labor market tightness, or how many jobs are available per unemployed person.

For much of the pandemic period, that balance was wildly skewed, with job seekers having more power as employers scrambled for workers to meet surging consumer demand and work through supply chain disruptions. At its peak in early 2022, there were roughly two job openings for every job seeker

With the hiring frenzy giving way to a painful correction, however, that ratio slipped below 1.0 in July, the first time in more than four years. And as of November, there are about 0.9 vacancies for every unemployed person, per BLS data, meaning job seekers now outnumber available roles.

New December data out this morning revealed that employers added fewer-than-expected 50,000 jobs last month, although the unemployment rate did tick down to 4.4%.

More Markets

See all Markets
markets

Report: Boeing could unveil 500-jet order from China during Trump’s visit later this month

Shares of Boeing are up nearly 4% on Friday afternoon, following a Bloomberg report that the company could be close to finalizing a deal to sell 500 planes to China.

The deal was first reported in August and would be one of Boeing’s largest ever.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.

Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

markets

Why software shares are withstanding the war jitters

The outbreak of the war in Iran has clearly rattled investors and created a few clear winners — mostly energy stocks — and losers — consumer staples, airlines, and, well, more or else everything else.

But there is one interesting outlier to that Manichaean market dynamic.

Software shares — often the same companies that the market was giving up for dead just a few weeks ago due to overexpectations of an AI-driven disruption — have been holding up remarkably well.

These companies, including Intuit, ServiceNow, Datadog, Snowflake, IBM, Workday, and Oracle, have actually had a pretty decent run since the war started with a combined US-Israeli attack on Iran last weekend.

A new note from RBC Capital’s Rishi Jaluria suggests this isn’t just a fluke. Looking at the performance of software stocks during periods of geopolitical stress and market volatility over the last 10 and 25 years, his team found that software shares appear fairly well insulated when these broader shocks hit. RBC wrote:

“The defensive nature of SaaS models and the mission-critical nature of many core software systems at the enterprise level (e.g., in the absence of mass layoffs that may create seat-based headwinds, geopolitical uncertainty and/or market volatility typically will not cause an enterprise CIO to consider ripping out their ERP, CRM, Cyber systems, etc.”

I briefly got Jaluria on the phone yesterday, and he explained a bit more about why he thinks investors might see software as a decent place to hide out from the current chaos.

“With everything in the Middle East, you have to think about not just oil and gas input prices but also supply chains,” he said. “With software, you’re not really thinking about that.”

In other words, there is no equivalent of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz that software investors have to worry about.

Others suggested that the near-term profitability of these giant software companies — aside from concerns about potential long-term disruption from AI — may look different in the face of the economic uncertainty that seems to be growing with the war, especially after a sell-off that has left them relatively attractively valued.

Mark Moerdler, who covers software stocks for Bernstein Research, says that while the AI worries are clearly real, software companies continue to be highly productive cash cows.

“Everyone is afraid that AI is a massive disruptor, and all these articles you read talk about AI as massive disruptor or the world is ending or whatever,” he said. “You don’t see it in the fundamental numbers of the companies I cover. They are delivering GAAP profits, free cash flow, and they’re good investment ideas.”

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.