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Matt Phillips

The vast majority of S&P 500 companies are talking about AI this earnings season, at least in broad strokes.

But precious few are disclosing hard numbers on how AI makes them more profitable, according to a review of Q4 earnings calls conducted by Goldman Sachs analysts.

In a note published late Tuesday, analysts with the bank found that just 1% of the members of the S&P 500 have “quantified the impact of AI on earnings.” That’s despite 70% of the blue-chip index’s members “broadly discussing AI” on earnings calls.

They wrote:

“In earnings calls, many companies have grouped AI with broader automation and productivity initiatives, making it difficult to disentangle the impact of AI specifically. 10% of S&P 500 companies quantified the productivity boost from an AI on a specific use case during their 4Q earnings calls, particularly among developers. Our economists recently highlighted softness in tech employment in recent months.”

Only two new companies quantified an AI productivity impact on their current earnings, Goldman found. One was financial analytics and ratings powerhouse S&P Global. The other was water treatment and commercial cleaning products manufacturer Ecolab.

The gap between the share of executives yapping about AI and the dearth of detail on the technology’s bottom-line impact may be part of the reason investors have gotten slightly jittery about AI during the recent flurry of earnings reports, with volatility on baskets of AI-related stocks picking up over the last month.

Investors know that tech giants are boosting the amount they plan to spend on AI investments in the coming year to over $600 billion. They also know that customers who will buy AI services from Amazon , Google, and Microsoft — to name a few — will have to see real benefits from using it.

If they don’t, the customers won’t keep paying. And there goes the hyperscalers’ ROI.

Anyway, we’re still waiting to see those benefits.

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markets
Luke Kawa

Nvidia’s strong results, guidance lift AI ecosystem

Data center stocks Applied Digital, IREN, CoreWeave, and Nebius as well as foundry giant TSMC and optical communications company Corning are catching a bid in after-hours trading thanks to strong results and guidance from Nvidia.

The chip designer’s massive outlook for Q1 sales — with the midpoint at $78 billion, versus a consensus estimate of $72.8 billion — underscores the magnitude of the near-term demand for AI compute and chips. As if the hyperscalers’ massive capex budgets hadn’t already done that!

To be sure, the advances in these stocks in after-hours trading are fairly mild, since most had been on fire in recent sessions in anticipation of a strong quarter.

Nvidia rises after better than expected Q4 results, big upside surprise in Q1 sales guidance

Nvidia rises after better than expected Q4 results, big upside surprise in Q1 sales guidance

The chip designer’s massive outlook for Q1 sales — with the midpoint at $78 billion, versus a consensus estimate of $72.8 billion — underscores the magnitude of the near-term demand for AI compute and chips. As if the hyperscalers’ massive capex budgets hadn’t already done that!

To be sure, the advances in these stocks in after-hours trading are fairly mild, since most had been on fire in recent sessions in anticipation of a strong quarter.

Luke Kawa
4h
Nvidia rises after better-than-expected Q4 results, big upside surprise in Q1 sales guidance

The chip designer delivered its 13th consecutive bottom-line beat and 14th on the top line.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is happy
markets
Max Knoblauch

Joby posts smaller loss, larger cash pile than expected in Q4, says it expects US early operations to begin this year

Air taxi maker Joby Aviation reported its fourth-quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Shares climbed more than 3% in after-hours trading.

The company posted a loss of $0.14 per share, beating estimates of a $0.20 loss.

Joby ended the fourth quarter with $1.41 billion in cash (and cash equivalents), compared to Wall Street expectations of $1.01 billion.

Investors have closely watched Joby’s progress with FAA certification, which will be the determining factor for launching commercial air taxi services in the US. As of the end of Q4, Joby said it is 80% complete with the fourth stage of its five-stage certification process, up from 77% in the third quarter. Joby is 12% complete with the fifth stage, up from 10% in Q3.

Earlier on Wednesday, Joby announced it plans to partner with Uber to offer air taxi rides on the ride-hailing app in Dubai later this year. The companies already partner on Blade helicopter rides.

Joby also said it expects US early operations to begin this year, with the White House’s eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) Integration Pilot Program “set to select at least five sites for mature eVTOL aircraft to begin operating ahead of Type Certification.”

markets
Matt Phillips

The Trade Desk plunges on weak Q1 sales guidance

Ad tech platform The Trade Desk offered weak Q1 sales guidance as part of its Q4 earnings numbers, sending the stock down sharply after-hours on Wednesday.

The advertising software company reported:

  • Adjusted Q4 earnings per share of $0.59 vs. the $0.58 consensus estimate, per FactSet.

  • Q4 revenue of $847 million vs. the $840.6 million expectation.

  • Q1 sales guidance of “at least” $678 million vs. Wall Street’s $688.6 million expectation.

The Trade Desk specializes in helping client advertisers shift their ads from traditional linear television toward online streaming services. And the shares posted some impressive gains at times, rising more than 400% over five years starting at the end of 2019.

But the company’s shares have cratered in recent years, in part because of a daunting competitive threat from Amazon’s demand-side advertising platform. Through Wednesday’s close, the stock was down roughly 80% from where it was trading at the end of 2024.

markets
Max Knoblauch

Paramount misses on earnings and revenue in its fourth-quarter report

Paramount Skydance reported underwhelming fourth-quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday, in the midst of its attempt to win the Warner Bros. Discovery bidding war.

For the last three months of 2025, Paramount reported:

  • An adjusted loss of $0.12 per share, compared to Bloomberg estimates of $0.07 earnings per share.

  • Revenue of $8.1 billion, missing Wall Street’s expectations of $8.15 billion.

Looking ahead, the company expects Q1 revenue of between $7.15 billion and $7.35 billion, below the $7.39 billion Wall Street consensus estimate.

Earlier this week, Paramount hiked its offer for Warner Bros. to $31 per share. Warner’s board, which has rejected Paramount’s acquisition attempts several times in recent months, said it’s reviewing the new bid.

If WBD determines the Paramount deal to be a superior offer, Netflix will have four days to match it, beat it, or exit the process. Paramount shares have fallen 24% since it made its initial offer for WBD in December.

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