AI’s contribution to US stock market wealth: $8.5 trillion

$8.5T

Analysts at consulting firm Pantheon Macroeconomics estimate that the stock market’s enthusiasm for all things AI has added some $8.5 trillion to aggregate US household wealth since late 2022. They wrote:

“The S&P 500 returned about 70% between the start of ChatGPT mania around the end of 2022 to the end of Q2 2025, with roughly half of those returns generated by the ‘magnificent seven’ tech stocks, a very rough proxy for the stock market boost from AI euphoria.

We estimate that translates into a lift to household wealth held in stocks of about $8.5T.”

As my colleague Luke Kawa recently wrote, stock market wealth seems to be underpinning US consumer spending, especially among the richest Americans. Some of that spending may retrench if AI is indeed a bubble — as some have recently mooted — and eventually pops.

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Luke Kawa39s

Netflix is acquiring Warner Bros. and HBO assets for less than it’s spent to add content since the pandemic started

What would you, as a viewer, rather watch:

Every new piece of content that’s appeared on Netflix since the pandemic started, or all the original series ever produced by HBO as well as the 100-year-plus portfolio of Warner Bros. films?

That’s one lens through which to view the streaming giant’s agreement to buy Warner Bros. studio and streaming assets for an equity value of $72 billion or an enterprise value of $82.7 billion (which factors in the debt Netflix is assuming from the acquired entity).

Since the end of 2019, Netflix has sent over $87 billion in cash out the door to add content assets to its vast library.

The good news is that presumably, you won’t have to make that choice. Presumably, in the event that this merger is approved and any existing distribution deals lapse, this library will be rolled up under one roof. That’ll probably entail higher subscription costs for Netflix subscribers; what the net cost for those who subscribe to both services ends up being is one of many things that are very much up in the air.

“By adding the deep film and TV libraries and HBO and HBO Max programming, Netflix members will have even more high-quality titles from which to choose,” per the press release. “This also allows Netflix to optimize its plans for consumers, enhancing viewing options and expanding access to content.”

Luke Kawa58m

Oklo slides after launching $1.5 billion at-the-market equity offering program

Oklo has no revenues and an extremely high valuation.

Put the two together and this happens:

After the close on Thursday, a filing showed the nuclear energy company entered into a pact with various financial institutions to sell up to $1.5 billion worth of its stock in an at-the-market equity offering program.

Shares are down about 5.5% as of 7:20 a.m. ET.

This is Oklo’s third equity offering of the year, per Bloomberg data.

The comany had been on a tear recently ahead of this announcement, rising nearly 30% over the prior three sessions amid elevated options market activity.

Hyunsoo Rim2h

SoFi Technologies slides on $1.5 billion share sale announcement at $27.50 a share

SoFi Technologies is down more than 7% in early trading on Friday after the company revealed plans to raise $1.5 billion through a public stock offering, with shares to be priced at $27.50 each — a discount of roughly 7% from Thursday's closing price of $29.60.

The offering includes a 30-day option for the underwriters to purchase up to an additional 8,181,818 shares, equivalent to an additional 15% of the nominal offering, which is expected to close December 8th.

Proceeds from the offering will go toward "general corporate purposes," SoFi said, including "enhancing capital position, increasing optionality and enabling further efficiency of capital management, and funding incremental growth and business opportunities."

The sale comes as SoFi's stock has been on a tear this year — nearly doubling (up 97%) in 2025 before this morning's slump. The company also posted better-than-expected Q3 sales and profits back in October, driven by growth outside its original lending business, including trading, wealth management, mortgages, and credit cards.

CEO Anthony Noto has repeatedly emphasized SoFi's push beyond lending. In November, the company launched a priority waitlist for SoFi Crypto, enabling users to trade dozens of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

The stock is hovering around the offering price of $27.50 on Friday.

Tom Jones4h

Netflix agrees $83 billion deal for Warner Bros. Discovery’s streaming and studio businesses, at $27.75 per share

Netflix this morning announced that it will acquire the Warner Bros. side of the Warner Bros. Discovery business — which includes its studio and streaming businesses — in a deal worth $82.7 billion, or $27.75 per share.

Per the press release:

The transaction is expected to close after the previously announced separation of WBD’s Global Networks division, Discovery Global, into a new publicly-traded company, which is now expected to be completed in Q3 2026.

The streaming giant beat out competition from other suitors like Comcast and Paramount Skydance, the latter of which had been crying foul about the sales process just yesterday, having sought a deal for the WBD business in full, including its vast array of networks, which will now be spun out as Discovery Global.

Unless halted by regulators, when the deal closes in the estimated 12-18 months, Netflix will pick up IP such as the Harry Potter franchise and DC universe through the Warner Bros. studio division, as well as the company’s burgeoning streaming division, including HBO Max — an addition that one recent report suggested might not significantly boost Netflix’s market share, sending shares tumbling on Wednesday.

While it’s still far too early to say what impact the potential deal will have on the biggest film and TV streaming business in the world, and the wider world of entertainment in general, NFLX investors haven’t seemed hugely enthused by the prospect throughout the process, and shares have slipped as much as ~3.2% in premarket trading.

Tasha Matsumoto

17h

Large-caps waver ahead of next week’s Fed meeting; small-caps notch record close

Stocks are in a holding pattern as investors await tomorrow’s release of September PCE for further insight into next week’s Fed decision.

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