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AI WASHING

AI is becoming a go-to reason for layoffs — but is it actually replacing workers?

Economists say the technology’s footprint on the job market remains hard to find... for now.

Hyunsoo Rim

The US labor market is at an interesting place. On the one hand, unemployment remains pretty low. But Corporate America is still unwinding some of the pandemic-era hiring binge — data out yesterday from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that layoffs in January were the highest to start a year since 2009.

And some of those job cuts are being blamed on AI.

Just last week, Pinterest said it would trim ~15% of its workforce, with CEO Bill Ready telling staff he was “doubling down on an AI-forward approach.” Dow Chemical announced plans to cut about 4,500 jobs while leaning into “AI and automation.” Amazon slashed 16,000 jobs, continuing cuts from last year, alongside a slew of tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, and Salesforce — all of which have linked job cuts to AI-driven efficiency gains

Per Challenger, nearly 55,000 US job cuts were attributed to AI in 2025. That’s roughly a thirteenfold increase from two years earlier, when the category was first tracked.

Blame game

However, a growing body of research questions whether jobs are actually being lost to AI — or whether employers are simply AI-washing,” using the investor-friendly buzzword to explain their downsizing decisions.

In a January report, Oxford Economics suggested the role of AI in recent layoffs may be “overstated,” noting that productivity growth hasn’t accelerated in a way consistent with widespread labor replacement. Attributing job cuts to AI, the group added, “conveys a more positive message to investors” than citing weak demand or past overhiring. Meanwhile, new analysis from Yale Budget Lab found that employment patterns look largely unchanged from pre-AI trends.

So why is AI looming so large in layoff narratives today, even as its macro impact remains hard to spot? One possibility is that companies are downsizing for what AI might deliver in the future, not what it already can.

Indeed, 60% of organizations have already reduced headcount in anticipation of AI’s future impact, according to a December Harvard Business Review survey of more than 1,000 global executives. Another 29% have slowed hiring for the same reason, while just 2% said they’ve made large layoffs tied to actual AI implementation.

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United beats Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, lowers full-year profit guidance amid surging jet fuel prices

United Airlines reported its first-quarter earnings results after the bell on Tuesday. The carrier’s shares ticked down in after hours trading.

For Q1, United reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, compared to the Wall Street estimate of $1.08 per share compiled by FactSet.

  • $14.6 billion in revenue, compared to the $14.39 billion estimates.

In the first quarter, United’s fuel expense grew 12.6% from the same period last year to $3.04 billion.

For the second quarter, United expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1 and $2, shy of Wall Street expectations of $2.08. For the full year ahead, United said it expects earnings between $7 and $11 per share, compared to its prior guidance of between $12 and $14 per share.

“Guidance assumes United’s revenue recovers 40% to 50% of the fuel price increases in the second quarter, 70% to 80% of the fuel price increases in the third quarter and 85% to 100% of the fuel price increases in the fourth quarter 2026,” read the company’s investor update.

Earlier this month, United was among the first major US airlines to hike its bag fees amid higher fuel costs. Its shares have fallen more than 15% from a February high days before the war in Iran began.

United has also made waves this month following reports that CEO Scott Kirby had floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines to President Trump. A merger between two of the big four airlines would create a true US behemoth, controlling more than a third of the American market. American Air last week said it wasn’t interested in merging with United and hadn’t held talks on the idea. On Tuesday, President Trump told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea either.

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Hedge funds are following retail traders into the Magnificent 7

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the stocks the masses never stopped buying.

“As we kick off earnings for megacap tech stocks, this stood out: [hedge funds] have started buying Mag7 stocks again this month though positioning remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2016,” writes Goldman Sachs’ Cullen Morgan.

Goldman PB Mag 7
Source: Goldman Sachs

In early April, JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail investors had basically been selling everything but the Magnificent 7 stocks as part of a more cautious stance due to the Iran war.

(Apple has been a longstanding exception to this trend, presumably because retail traders aren't fond of its hands-off approach to AI.)

JPM Retail flows

Last August, Jain discussed how retail activity tended to “crowd in” institutional buyers in meme stocks, while Goldman’s John Marshall advised clients to piggyback on stocks beloved by retail traders. Speculative, retail-geared assets proceeded to go on a tremendous run that soured in October.

But there are some early indications that a similar bout of speculative fervor is bubbling up once more.

markets

POET Technologies surges above $10 for first time in 4 years amid explosion in call volumes

POET Technologies is up nearly 40% this week as options market activity goes haywire in a faint echo of what got the stock on retail traders’ radars in October.

As of 11:12 a.m. ET, more than 10 calls have changed hands for every put traded. This bullish impulse has propelled the stock above the $10 threshold for the first time since March 2022.

Shares of the optical communications firm briefly dipped last week after Wolfpack Research said it was short the company because its investors would be exposed to an “IRS tax nightmare.”

The company responded that day saying it was taking measures for US shareholders that “should mitigate certain potential adverse US federal income tax consequences to it that could otherwise result from the Company’s status as a passive foreign investment company.”

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