(Affirm)

Affirm shares sink as the buy now, pay later giant posts surprise profit but disappointing guidance

Revenue surged in the third quarter, but the future may not be so bright.

5/9/25 12:14PM

Affirm shares were down 13% Friday afternoon after the payment installment company posted a surprise Q3 profit but gave a chillier revenue outlook.

Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.01, swinging to a profit from last year’s loss and beating expectations for a $0.03 loss. Revenue was in line with estimates at $783 million, while gross merchandise volume (an important metric that tracks total transactions) topped forecasts, jumping 36% to $8.6 billion.

Despite the beat, investors were spooked by a cautious revenue forecast for the current quarter, with the midpoint landing below Wall Street targets. The slowdown comes as the broader US economy feels the impact of new Trump-era tariffs and cooling consumer spending, with lower-income shoppers in particular pulling back.

On the flip side, Affirm’s Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth has stayed resilient, fueled in part by the company’s 0% loan offers and new users joining through Apple and Amazon.

Affirm expects Q4 GMV to land between $9.4 billion and $9.7 billion, with the midpoint of $9.55 billion topping estimates.

Despite Friday’s sell-off, Affirm shares are still up nearly 35% year to date.

Matt Phillips1h

Arista Networks rips higher amid jump in call buying

Arista Networks, a maker of switches and other networking equipment used in AI data centers, was on track for its best day of the new year on Thursday as options traders went bullish on the stock.

As of around 11 a.m. ET, there was nearly twice as much call buying in Arista than its 10-day moving average for a full day of activity. Buying call options to make leveraged bets on price increases has been a favorite trading tactic of retail traders in recent years.

Otherwise, there weren’t clear headlines tied to today’s outsized move, but the stock has been getting attention lately: in a note published earlier this month, Goldman Sachs analysts spotlighted Arista as a top tactical trade for earnings season, saying the shares — which they rate a “buy” — could rise 20% over the next year.

“ANET is well positioned amidst ongoing data center spending growth, where its position as a best of breed provider of networking equipment should advantage the company, particularly as data center networks become increasingly complex,” Goldman analysts wrote in the January 8 report.

And recent reports also say Microsoft — which accounted for 20% of Arista’s revenue in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs — is planning a massive expansion of its Wisconsin data center project.

Arista stock did get a lift following the release of solid US economic numbers at 8:30 a.m. that seemed fairly specific to Arista itself. (There was no similar bounce from competitors like Cisco or Hewlett-Packard.)

Microsoft receives preliminary approval for $13.3B data center expansion in Mount Pleasant - Milwaukee Business Journal

And recent reports also say Microsoft — which accounted for 20% of Arista’s revenue in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs — is planning a massive expansion of its Wisconsin data center project.

Luke Kawa2h

Investors just made a mammoth $133 billion flip from cash to stocks, per Goldman Sachs

It’s a dash from cash, with investors taking billions in dry powder and pouring that money into the stock market.

“We saw strong net flows into global equity funds last week, led by stronger inflows into US and EM equity funds (+$71 billion vs $2 billion in the previous week) — more than 35x-ed the flows,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Gail Hafif, Brian Garrett, and Lee Coppersmith. “While equity flows increase, money market fund assets fell by $62 billion. This is the 3rd largest level in our dataset (!).”

The trio is bullish on US stocks, seeing “the case for contained selloffs coupled with relief rallies as the most likely path forward in the near term.”

Luke Kawa

Retail traders’ monthly appetite for stocks ascends to fresh record

“The current ‘new year’ momentum has been sustained and has now pushed retail activity to an all-time high on a rolling monthly basis,” according to JPMorgan.

BRITAIN-LONDON-FIREWORKS-NEW YEAR-CELEBRATION

J. Edward Moreno3h

Moderna extends rally on positive cancer vaccine results

Moderna has more than doubled since it announced on Tuesday that its cancer vaccine reduced the risk of relapse or death for melanoma patients.

The five-year data from a Phase 2b trial showed that Moderna’s vaccine, when used with Merck’s blockbuster treatment Keytruda, reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49% compared with Keytruda alone. The news gave investors hope that Moderna, which is best known for quickly developing a COVID-19 vaccine, may soon have another lucrative product in its portfolio.

Last week, Moderna said it expects to report total 2025 revenue of $1.9 billion, on the high end of its latest guidance of between $1.6 billion and $2 billion, amid better-than-expected vaccination rates. As demand for the COVID-19 vaccine, its sole revenue-generating product, has tanked, the company has aggressively cut costs and focused on expanding its portfolio.

The combination of positive announcements early in the year has made Moderna the second-best performer in the S&P 500 Index in 2026, behind newfound AI darling Sandisk.

Luke Kawa4h

POET Technologies tumbles after announcing $150 million direct share offering

POET Technologies is tumbling in early trading Thursday after the optical communications company announced that it’s raising $150 million through the sale of about 20.7 million shares in a registered direct offering.

It’s an opportunity for management to cash in on the stock’s more than 30% rally year to date (as of Wednesday’s close).

“With a substantial base of cash, we plan to accelerate our pursuit of targeted acquisitions, add to our capabilities and talent base, vertically integrate our products with differentiated components, and expand operations to pursue revenue opportunities across the board, in order to bring long-term value to shareholders,” Executive Chairman and CEO Dr. Suresh Venkatesan said.

POET’s last offering came in late October, after which shares nearly halved in less than a month amid a broad drawdown in speculative, volatile stocks beloved by retail traders.