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TRADING PLACES

Four tiny stocks all traded more than Disney... and 476 other members of the S&P 500 yesterday

Quantum Computing, Rigetti Computing, Nukkleus Inc., and SoundHound AI traded nearly $10 billion collectively yesterday.

David Crowther, Luke Kawa

These days, you have to go well outside the S&P 500, which holds the largest American public companies, to find the stocks worth talking about. An emergent market theme is the spike in appetite for more speculative, volatile companies — ones with massive upside potential tied to buzzword-heavy business lines, but also little in the way of current revenues or profits.

This handful of relatively tiny companies are stealing the spotlight, with their trading volumes going absolutely nuts.

That amount of money trading in stocks that few people have heard of is unusual, but when you account for the size of these companies, the comparisons get even more staggering. Before we get into the details, some quick context. The average S&P 500 Index stock traded $818 million yesterday, per data from FactSet, or about 0.89% of its market cap — again, on average. Tesla, the most active stock overall, actually traded about 4% of its market cap.

Quantum Computing only has a market capitalization of about $2 billion. Yesterday, more than $3.3 billion changed hands in the company’s stock — meaning that it traded ~164% of its market cap in one session. Rigetti Computing turned over about ~94% of its market value, and the value traded in SoundHound AI was about 26% of its market cap.

But nothing compares to Nukkleus Inc. After announcing a strategic acquisition that pivots the company into the defense sector, the tiny company’s stock soared, gaining more than 700% in just one day. Per FactSet, more than $2 billion changed hands in the company’s shares yesterday. (Bloomberg estimates a lower amount, closer to $1.4 billion.) The company’s market cap is just $40 million, meaning that, on the FactSet numbers, traders bought and sold over 5,000% of its total market cap... in one day.

Why are these stocks soaring?

Quantum computing has been the shiny new object for traders chasing new thematic investing ideas in the wake of Alphabet’s December 9 announcement of a problem-solving breakthrough. The search giant said that its quantum computer completed a series of calculations would have taken the world’s best supercomputers 10 septillion years to finish. Smaller pure-play companies in this line of business, which had already been up anywhere from 175% to 715% so far this year, have since extended their year-to-date gains. Notably, Rigetti Computing and Quantum Computing have each more than doubled in a little over a week.

Rigetti, in partnership with other firms including Nvidia, was able to successfully use AI to calibrate a quantum computer (that is, setting it up so that it works and does whatever it’s being asked to do properly). That’s a significant potential time-saver that could aid the proliferation of this technology. Meanwhile, Quantum Computing secured a contract with NASA to process interferometric imaging data, which are images generated through the use of radar.

SoundHound AI, which sells voice-AI software, seems to have benefited from its legions of doubters amid an apparent short squeeze in the shares. Roughly one-quarter of its float is held by traders betting against the company — an increasingly painful position to have held.

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Meta shares rally as Jefferies says it’s a bargain relative to Mag 7 peers

Shares of Meta rallied over 5% today, as Jefferies analyst Brent Thill doubled down on his buy rating for the company, calling the stock a relative bargain compared to its Magnificent 7 peers. The analyst set a price target of $910, well above the $645 where the stock is trading today.

News out of Davos this week that Meta’s first models from its revamped AI teams are “very good” align with Thill’s argument that the company is well positioned to get back in the AI race with the “all-star model,” which is expected to be released in the first half of the year.

Recent cuts to its Reality Labs also signal that the company is focusing its spending where it matters. The Jefferies note also said the recent monetization of Threads via ads will help boost revenue.

Next week, Meta reports its fourth-quarter earnings, and Thill expects that even if Meta raises its 2026 capex outlook, investors won’t be spooked, as the company has been clear that spending may continue to be high.

Recent cuts to its Reality Labs also signal that the company is focusing its spending where it matters. The Jefferies note also said the recent monetization of Threads via ads will help boost revenue.

Next week, Meta reports its fourth-quarter earnings, and Thill expects that even if Meta raises its 2026 capex outlook, investors won’t be spooked, as the company has been clear that spending may continue to be high.

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Arista Networks rips higher amid jump in call buying

Arista Networks, a maker of switches and other networking equipment used in AI data centers, was on track for its best day of the new year on Thursday as options traders went bullish on the stock.

As of around 11 a.m. ET, there was nearly twice as much call buying in Arista than its 10-day moving average for a full day of activity. Buying call options to make leveraged bets on price increases has been a favorite trading tactic of retail traders in recent years.

Otherwise, there weren’t clear headlines tied to today’s outsized move, but the stock has been getting attention lately: in a note published earlier this month, Goldman Sachs analysts spotlighted Arista as a top tactical trade for earnings season, saying the shares — which they rate a “buy” — could rise 20% over the next year.

“ANET is well positioned amidst ongoing data center spending growth, where its position as a best of breed provider of networking equipment should advantage the company, particularly as data center networks become increasingly complex,” Goldman analysts wrote in the January 8 report.

And recent reports also say Microsoft — which accounted for 20% of Arista’s revenue in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs — is planning a massive expansion of its Wisconsin data center project.

Arista stock did get a lift following the release of solid US economic numbers at 8:30 a.m. that seemed fairly specific to Arista itself. (There was no similar bounce from competitors like Cisco or Hewlett-Packard.)

Otherwise, there weren’t clear headlines tied to today’s outsized move, but the stock has been getting attention lately: in a note published earlier this month, Goldman Sachs analysts spotlighted Arista as a top tactical trade for earnings season, saying the shares — which they rate a “buy” — could rise 20% over the next year.

“ANET is well positioned amidst ongoing data center spending growth, where its position as a best of breed provider of networking equipment should advantage the company, particularly as data center networks become increasingly complex,” Goldman analysts wrote in the January 8 report.

And recent reports also say Microsoft — which accounted for 20% of Arista’s revenue in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs — is planning a massive expansion of its Wisconsin data center project.

Arista stock did get a lift following the release of solid US economic numbers at 8:30 a.m. that seemed fairly specific to Arista itself. (There was no similar bounce from competitors like Cisco or Hewlett-Packard.)

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Investors just made a mammoth $133 billion flip from cash to stocks, per Goldman Sachs

It’s a dash from cash, with investors taking billions in dry powder and pouring that money into the stock market.

“We saw strong net flows into global equity funds last week, led by stronger inflows into US and EM equity funds (+$71 billion vs $2 billion in the previous week) — more than 35x-ed the flows,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Gail Hafif, Brian Garrett, and Lee Coppersmith. “While equity flows increase, money market fund assets fell by $62 billion. This is the 3rd largest level in our dataset (!).”

Goldman cash to stocks flows

The trio is bullish on US stocks, seeing “the case for contained selloffs coupled with relief rallies as the most likely path forward in the near term.”

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Moderna extends rally on positive cancer vaccine results

Moderna has more than doubled since it announced on Tuesday that its cancer vaccine reduced the risk of relapse or death for melanoma patients.

The five-year data from a Phase 2b trial showed that Moderna’s vaccine, when used with Merck’s blockbuster treatment Keytruda, reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49% compared with Keytruda alone. The news gave investors hope that Moderna, which is best known for quickly developing a COVID-19 vaccine, may soon have another lucrative product in its portfolio.

Last week, Moderna said it expects to report total 2025 revenue of $1.9 billion, on the high end of its latest guidance of between $1.6 billion and $2 billion, amid better-than-expected vaccination rates. As demand for the COVID-19 vaccine, its sole revenue-generating product, has tanked, the company has aggressively cut costs and focused on expanding its portfolio.

The combination of positive announcements early in the year has made Moderna the second-best performer in the S&P 500 Index in 2026, behind newfound AI darling Sandisk.

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