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Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets show Chalamet in the lead for Best Actor, but Actor Awards could shake up race

The final voting period has kicked off for the 98th Academy Awards. Up until last weekend, many of the main categories seemed like a lock. While “Hamnet” star Jessie Buckley has been the predicted front-runner for the Best Actress statuette for some time now, the Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor and Actress races have been upended following the BAFTA Film Awards.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

While Timothée Chamalet still remains in the lead for the Best Actor prize, his odds have gone down slightly after he lost the BAFTA award, while the wins of Wunmi Mosaku and Sean Penn in the supporting categories have made it a more exciting race. Here’s a roundup of what some experts and awards pundits have said this week:

  • While Gold Derby still has Chalamet as the front-runner for the Actor Award (and the Oscar), his odds have gone down slightly following the BAFTA loss. Surprisingly, the publication has “Weapons” star Amy Madigan in the lead to win the Actor Award for supporting actress, while they have Penn as the front-runner getting the Actor Award for supporting actor.

  • Numlock Awards reports that the BAFTA Awards reshaped the Oscars race, with Chalamet’s loss throwing the Best Actor race “into chaos” following “I Swear” star Robert Aramayo’s win. (He was not eligible to be nominated for an Oscar.)

  • Meanwhile, Variety’s Clayton Davis reports that the Oscars race has officially become “fractured, unpredictable and thrilling” following the BAFTA Awards. However, he predicts that “Sinners” star Michael B. Jordan will win the Actor Award this weekend and has heard rumblings that “Blue Moon” star Ethan Hawke could pull a last-minute victory. 

  • IndieWire’s Anne Thompson says that Chalamet is “good to go” for the Actor Awards and the Oscars, adding that the Best Supporting Actress and Actor categories are the ones to keep an eye on.

  • Deadline’s Pete Hammond believes that Chalamet’s BAFTA loss doesn’t necessarily impact the Actor Awards — Aramayo isn’t nominated for an Oscar and the BAFTA Awards tend to favor homegrown actors. He agreed with many of the other pundits in that Mosaku and Penn’s wins add more suspense.

  • AwardsRadar’s Joey Magidson points out that no one has ever won two Actor Awards in a row, which could open Chalamet up to an upset win from Hawke. 

  • Meanwhile, AwardsWatch’s Erik Anderson has Chalamet as a lock for the Actor Award, though he lists Jordan as the follow-up should there be a surprise win in that category.

The Actor Awards are on Sunday, and whoever wins that evening could lock in the fate of the actors in the lead and supporting Oscar categories.

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Apple and Netflix announce a Formula 1 content swap

Just months after Apple signed a five-year, $140 million-per-year deal for US media rights to Formula 1 races, the streamer is sharing with Netflix.

In a rare content swap, Apple TV will allow Netflix to simulcast the F1 Canadian Grand Prix in May. Netflix, in turn, will allow Apple to carry its popular “Drive to Survive” docuseries.

“Drive to Survive” will land on the queues of both Netflix and Apple TV at 12 a.m. PT this Friday.

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Trump’s speech broke the record for the longest State of the Union address ever

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Lasting almost 108 minutes, Trump’s speech yesterday officially became the longest State of the Union address of the television age, per Bloomberg, surpassing the previous record of 89 minutes set by President Bill Clinton in 2000.

According to data compiled by The American Presidency Project, the president’s address was almost double the average length of all recorded SOTU speeches since 1964, which works out as 55 minutes.

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The speech also marked what could be a new personal best in terms of length for Trump, beating his remarks to Congress in March 2025 by 8 minutes, though this was not included in the average as, according to the APP, it was not an official “State of the Union” speech.

The APP also calculated a preliminary figure for 2026 in terms of word count, and the current president trumped all other spoken-word SOTU addresses. Some addresses, however, haven’t been verbally delivered, and a couple of the written versions have racked up considerably greater tallies — most notably Jimmy Carter’s 1981 written address, which came in at 33,667 words in total.

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