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Kids’ movies are turning the 2024 box office Inside Out

Pixar and the Minions are helping to reanimate box office audiences

INT. OFFICE BLOCK —  NIGHT

A boardroom, cluttered with empty coffee cups and packed with stressed Hollywood execs scowling at each other and generally looking pretty lost. We see a flipboard with the words “Avatar", “superheroes”, “Barbenheimer”, “franchisable IP”, and “Chalamet” all crossed out, a single red question mark underlined several times is scrawled beneath…

Up until very recently, the 2024 box office had been taking a beating. The year got off to a slow start as January and February lived up to their reputation as “dump months”; Garfuriosa was a Memorial Day weekend washout; and Dune 2, which took just over $700 million all told, looked relatively unchallenged as the year’s top grosser, much to the chagrin of its director.

Compared to the first half of 2023, when there were flashy new installments from the Fast and Furious factory’s never-ending production line, Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy series, and the world of Super Mario, the first 6 months of the year didn’t convince enough American moviegoers to switch off the endless stream of at-home content and get out to their local theaters.

But then things started to get emotional.

On June 14th, Pixar released the follow up to its critically acclaimed 2015 effort Inside Out, an animated adventure set almost exclusively within the confines of an 11-year-old girl’s brain as her emotions take over. Despite Pixar’s recent stumbles, the long-awaited sequel was tipped to be the biggest opening of the year with a projected $80-90 million haul. However, the movie outstripped even the most optimistic expectations and took $155 million in its first weekend, making it the best opening since Barbie last July.

Inside Out 2 is smashing the box office

The Inside Out 2 hype train hasn’t really slowed since either. It became the fastest animated movie in history to cross the $1 billion threshold at the global box office, before going on to become the highest grossing Pixar film ever, and the 4th biggest animated movie of all time. Indeed, when compared to the other $1 billion+ animations like Frozen or Finding Dory, IO2 continues to pace ahead of its competition, having taken ~$545 million in its first 26 days at the domestic box office.

Overjoyed

Like Riley, the now 13-year-old protagonist who welcomes a host of new feelings to her headspace in Inside Out 2, Pixar execs will likely be experiencing a heady cocktail of emotions such as joy, shock, and perhaps a little relief at how their latest movie has landed. The film interrupts a flurry of critical and commercial underperformers, like Lightyear and Elemental, that the Disney-owned studio’s put out since the pandemic.

As our Sherwood colleague Walt Hickey observed, “it’s generally a profitable notion to release animated films intended for families, especially during the summer months when kids are off from school”, rather than giving them a limited theater run, palming them straight off to streamers, or scrapping them altogether for tax purposes.

That notion was supported further by Despicable Me 4, the 6th overall installment in the Minion Cinematic Universe, which took $122 million over the July 4th holiday period — an entry that is already being touted in tandem with Inside Out 2 as “saving the summer” for the movie biz.

 The box office: rolling 12 month domestic gross

Family favorites

Cinema owners have been crying out for something besides Dune 2 to pique the interests of the American movie-going public for months now, after a string of flops — even by the tempered “New Normal” standards — in 2024. It was a rough start to the year for the US box office, with the Hollywood Reporter noting that takings in the first month were the lowest they’d been in January for over 25 years (excluding the pandemic era). The $364 million total in February was even worse.

June’s $966 million tally, on the other hand, is one of the highest monthly gross figures the domestic box office has seen in the post-pandemic world, and July could be on course to continue the hot streak thanks to the 2 family-friendly animations currently dominating the charts (not to mention the upcoming Deadpool & Wolverine).

Well-made animations have proven to be a tried and tested method of getting adults to splash out on tickets for themselves and their children, with the most successful examples often tapping into the “four quadrant” model, offering subtler jokes or more mature themes for older watchers alongside typically kid-friendly content.

Circling back

But, while Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4 might be helping to reinvigorate the summer box office, neither movie does much to counter the criticism that’s been plaguing the industry for years: Hollywood is running low on original ideas. Indeed, many of the most popular movies every year are now follow-ups, prequels, and part 2s, 3s, 4s, etc.

Sequelitis

While checking back in on a beloved set of characters has, of course, been a rich content seam that movie makers have mined for decades, sequels only really started to dominate in the last 15 years.

On average, from 2019 to 2024, roughly 50% of the top 10 grossing movies of each year contained a number, numeral, or “:” that clearly denoted that the film was part of a series. That’s up from just over 10% in the latter half of the 1990s, when only 7 titles contained the symbols that we’ve come to associate with Hollywood cashing in with second, third, and fourth parts. To put that into perspective, 8 of the top 10 highest grossing movies of 2024 so far have numbers or colons in them. Even the 2 exceptions to the pattern don’t ooze originality: there’s The Garfield Movie, the titular cat having been kicking around since the late 1970s, and yet another Planet of the Apes film.

For years, superhero movies were holding up the box office, as Marvel movie after Marvel movie broke record after record. But, with signs that audiences have started losing interest in the genre, perhaps the duty will fall to wholesome family-friendly animations to keep our silver screens alive. If so, you can be sure that any hint of success will undoubtedly birth a “franchise” and a decades-spanning series of movies… still, Shrek 5 is something to get excited about.

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Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets show “One Battle After Another” leads in Oscar race for Best Picture

It’s finally Oscars week — and with voting officially closed, all that’s left to do is count the ballots and wait to see who wins this Sunday night. 

This year, the acting categories have been the most interesting to watch, especially the showdown between “Marty Supreme” star Timothée Chalamet and “Sinners” actor Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor. While Chalamet was long the favorite, Jordan has caught up and overtaken him after winning the Actor Award.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But perhaps the most exciting race of all is for Best Picture. Out of the 10 nominees, the two at the top are Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” and Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” both of which are studio releases from Warner Bros. Discovery

Which will win the top prize seems to be split among award pundits and experts. As of Monday afternoon, Gold Derby still has “One Battle After Another” as the front-runner with odds of 76.87%. AwardsWatch, AwardsRadar, and Numlock Awards are also still predicting that “One Battle After Another” will take the statue for Best Picture.

On the other side, reporters from some major trade publications like Variety’s Clayton Davis and The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg predict that “Sinners” will take the top honor.

Odds in the prediction markets currently show that “One Battle After Another” is still ahead of “Sinners,” with the former priced in at 75% while the latter is priced at 23%.

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culture
Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets show Jordan catching up to Chalamet following Actor Awards

The Screen Actors Guild hosted its Actor Awards on Sunday, with the film awards closely monitored ahead of the Academy Awards. The Best Supporting Actor and Actress races remain suspenseful as Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) and Amy Madigan (Weapons) took home the Actor Awards in those respective categories, shifting the odds in both markets predicting who’ll take home the Oscar.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But the most exciting race is for Best Actor. Several award pundits and experts predicted that Marty Supreme star Timothée Chalamet was a lock for the Actor Award despite his loss at the BAFTA Film Awards the previous weekend. But a few suggested that either Blue Moonlead Ethan Hawke or Michael B. Jordan could receive the honor instead. And thats exactly what happened when the Sinners star was announced as the winner.

While some have pointed out that the Actor Awards arent a reliable signifier for who will win the Oscar (Demi Moore and Chalamet received the SAG honors last year, but didn’t win the Oscar), it certainly puts Jordan at a higher advantage and makes the Best Actor race closer than its ever been. Chalamet previously had a higher lead in the prediction markets, but markets are now pricing in a 49% chance he takes the Oscar while Jordan’s odds have risen to 40%.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.