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Farewell

Daniel Kahneman, Nobel prize laureate, dies at 90

Kahneman changed the way we think about how humans make decisions.

William Coulman

Daniel Kahneman, the psychologist who revolutionized economics by incorporating human behavior and its inherent irrationalities, died on Wednesday at the venerable age of 90.

Kahneman, along with his longtime collaborator and friend Amos Tversky, pioneered the field of behavioral economics. Their groundbreaking work paved the way for future Nobel laureates such as Richard Thaler and Robert Shiller. Kahneman himself was awarded the prestigious Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002.

His theories reached a global audience through his bestselling book, “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” which illustrates how human decision-making toggles between the rapid, instinctive responses which he called “System 1” and the deliberate, analytical processes of “System 2.” 

The classic example used to differentiate these systems involves a simple question: If a bat and a ball together cost $1.10, and the bat costs $1 more than the ball, how much does the ball cost? While a person’s System 1 often hastily answers 10 cents, a more thoughtful analysis by System 2 reveals the correct answer to be 5 cents.

Kahneman's work challenged the traditional economic view of humans as perfectly rational actors. 

Instead, he illuminated the cognitive biases and heuristics that often lead us astray, from the sunk-cost fallacy that leads to throwing good money after bad, to the availability bias that causes us to overestimate the likelihood of vivid events like plane crashes.

His insights have profoundly influenced not just academia but also practical applications in government policy, marketing strategies, and beyond, affecting everything from organ donation rates to consumer spending habits.

With his passing, the world has lost a true intellectual giant, whose profound understanding of the human mind has left an indelible mark on how we comprehend decision-making and economic behavior.

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Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets show “One Battle After Another” leads in Oscar race for Best Picture

It’s finally Oscars week — and with voting officially closed, all that’s left to do is count the ballots and wait to see who wins this Sunday night. 

This year, the acting categories have been the most interesting to watch, especially the showdown between “Marty Supreme” star Timothée Chalamet and “Sinners” actor Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor. While Chalamet was long the favorite, Jordan has caught up and overtaken him after winning the Actor Award.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But perhaps the most exciting race of all is for Best Picture. Out of the 10 nominees, the two at the top are Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” and Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” both of which are studio releases from Warner Bros. Discovery

Which will win the top prize seems to be split among award pundits and experts. As of Monday afternoon, Gold Derby still has “One Battle After Another” as the front-runner with odds of 76.87%. AwardsWatch, AwardsRadar, and Numlock Awards are also still predicting that “One Battle After Another” will take the statue for Best Picture.

On the other side, reporters from some major trade publications like Variety’s Clayton Davis and The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg predict that “Sinners” will take the top honor.

Odds in the prediction markets currently show that “One Battle After Another” is still ahead of “Sinners,” with the former priced in at 75% while the latter is priced at 23%.

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