Big winners at the Golden Globes could indicate this week’s Oscar noms

The Screen Actors Guild hosted its Actor Awards on Sunday, with the film awards closely monitored ahead of the Academy Awards. The Best Supporting Actor and Actress races remain suspenseful as Sean Penn (“One Battle After Another”) and Amy Madigan (“Weapons”) took home the Actor Awards in those respective categories, shifting the odds in both markets predicting who’ll take home the Oscar.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But the most exciting race is for Best Actor. Several award pundits and experts predicted that “Marty Supreme” star Timothée Chalamet was a lock for the Actor Award despite his loss at the BAFTA Film Awards the previous weekend. But a few suggested that either “Blue Moon” lead Ethan Hawke or Michael B. Jordan could receive the honor instead. And that’s exactly what happened when the “Sinners” star was announced as the winner.

While some have pointed out that the Actor Awards aren’t a reliable signifier for who will win the Oscar (Demi Moore and Chalamet received the SAG honors last year, but didn’t win the Oscar), it certainly puts Jordan at a higher advantage and makes the Best Actor race closer than it’s ever been. Chalamet previously had a higher lead in the prediction markets, but markets are now pricing in a 49% chance he takes the Oscar while Jordan’s odds have risen to 40%.

The final voting period has kicked off for the 98th Academy Awards. Up until last weekend, many of the main categories seemed like a lock. While “Hamnet” star Jessie Buckley has been the predicted front-runner for the Best Actress statuette for some time now, the Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor and Actress races have been upended following the BAFTA Film Awards.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

While Timothée Chamalet still remains in the lead for the Best Actor prize, his odds have gone down slightly after he lost the BAFTA award, while the wins of Wunmi Mosaku and Sean Penn in the supporting categories have made it a more exciting race. Here’s a roundup of what some experts and awards pundits have said this week:

• While Gold Derby still has Chalamet as the front-runner for the Actor Award (and the Oscar), his odds have gone down slightly following the BAFTA loss. Surprisingly, the publication has “Weapons” star Amy Madigan in the lead to win the Actor Award for supporting actress, while they have Penn as the front-runner getting the Actor Award for supporting actor.

• Numlock Awards reports that the BAFTA Awards reshaped the Oscars race, with Chalamet’s loss throwing the Best Actor race “into chaos” following “I Swear” star Robert Aramayo’s win. (He was not eligible to be nominated for an Oscar.)

• Meanwhile, Variety’s Clayton Davis reports that the Oscars race has officially become “fractured, unpredictable and thrilling” following the BAFTA Awards. However, he predicts that “Sinners” star Michael B. Jordan will win the Actor Award this weekend and has heard rumblings that “Blue Moon” star Ethan Hawke could pull a last-minute victory. 

• IndieWire’s Anne Thompson says that Chalamet is “good to go” for the Actor Awards and the Oscars, adding that the Best Supporting Actress and Actor categories are the ones to keep an eye on.

• Deadline’s Pete Hammond believes that Chalamet’s BAFTA loss doesn’t necessarily impact the Actor Awards — Aramayo isn’t nominated for an Oscar and the BAFTA Awards tend to favor homegrown actors. He agreed with many of the other pundits in that Mosaku and Penn’s wins add more suspense.

• AwardsRadar’s Joey Magidson points out that no one has ever won two Actor Awards in a row, which could open Chalamet up to an upset win from Hawke. 

• Meanwhile, AwardsWatch’s Erik Anderson has Chalamet as a lock for the Actor Award, though he lists Jordan as the follow-up should there be a surprise win in that category.

The Actor Awards are on Sunday, and whoever wins that evening could lock in the fate of the actors in the lead and supporting Oscar categories.