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"Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl" poster at AMC
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are we so back?

Say it quietly, but 2025 could be the best year for the box office since before the pandemic

An incoming slew of sequels (shock!) might be the boost movie theaters need.

Tom Jones

After another pretty solid weekend at the box office — where Taylor Swift’s marketing-event-meets-extended-music-video “The Official Release Party of a Showgirl” won out, having taken a whopping $33 million at home and a further $13 million overseas — whispers are circulating that 2025 could become the biggest box office year of the postpandemic era.

One blockbuster after another

With a sequel-packed slate in the final months of the year, “Wicked” and “Zootopia” follow-ups land in November and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” drops the week before Christmas, it would take some pretty big flops for this year not to become the first to break through the $9 billion barrier since 2019. Indeed, 2025 is already roughly tracking the previous postpandemic watermark set two years ago, even before we welcome witches, cartoon animal cops, and the Na’vi back to America’s silver screens.

Post-pandemic box office chart
Sherwood News

Thanks to huge hits earlier in the year like “A Minecraft Movie,” which was jockeyed into theaters in April and went on to gross about $424 million in North America, and “Lilo and Stitch,” which came a month later and grossed almost exactly the same, per Box Office Mojo figures, the total domestic tally for the year had already ballooned to almost $6.5 billion by the end of September.

There have been a handful of standout success stories in the world of original filmmaking, not least from the horror genre, where “Weapons” and “Sinners” both captured moviegoers’ attention. However, this year, like most recent ones before it, has been broadly defined by studios cashing in on old ideas, with just one entry that isn’t a remake, a follow-up, or a work based on existing intellectual property in the top 10 highest-grossing movies of 2025... even before the upcoming trifecta of part twos and threes.

Of course, if you adjust for inflation — considering ticket prices are 20% to 25% higher than they were in 2019 — the big picture figures don’t look so dazzling.

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Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets show “One Battle After Another” leads in Oscar race for Best Picture

It’s finally Oscars week — and with voting officially closed, all that’s left to do is count the ballots and wait to see who wins this Sunday night. 

This year, the acting categories have been the most interesting to watch, especially the showdown between “Marty Supreme” star Timothée Chalamet and “Sinners” actor Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor. While Chalamet was long the favorite, Jordan has caught up and overtaken him after winning the Actor Award.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But perhaps the most exciting race of all is for Best Picture. Out of the 10 nominees, the two at the top are Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” and Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” both of which are studio releases from Warner Bros. Discovery

Which will win the top prize seems to be split among award pundits and experts. As of Monday afternoon, Gold Derby still has “One Battle After Another” as the front-runner with odds of 76.87%. AwardsWatch, AwardsRadar, and Numlock Awards are also still predicting that “One Battle After Another” will take the statue for Best Picture.

On the other side, reporters from some major trade publications like Variety’s Clayton Davis and The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg predict that “Sinners” will take the top honor.

Odds in the prediction markets currently show that “One Battle After Another” is still ahead of “Sinners,” with the former priced in at 75% while the latter is priced at 23%.

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Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets show Jordan catching up to Chalamet following Actor Awards

The Screen Actors Guild hosted its Actor Awards on Sunday, with the film awards closely monitored ahead of the Academy Awards. The Best Supporting Actor and Actress races remain suspenseful as Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) and Amy Madigan (Weapons) took home the Actor Awards in those respective categories, shifting the odds in both markets predicting who’ll take home the Oscar.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But the most exciting race is for Best Actor. Several award pundits and experts predicted that Marty Supreme star Timothée Chalamet was a lock for the Actor Award despite his loss at the BAFTA Film Awards the previous weekend. But a few suggested that either Blue Moonlead Ethan Hawke or Michael B. Jordan could receive the honor instead. And thats exactly what happened when the Sinners star was announced as the winner.

While some have pointed out that the Actor Awards arent a reliable signifier for who will win the Oscar (Demi Moore and Chalamet received the SAG honors last year, but didn’t win the Oscar), it certainly puts Jordan at a higher advantage and makes the Best Actor race closer than its ever been. Chalamet previously had a higher lead in the prediction markets, but markets are now pricing in a 49% chance he takes the Oscar while Jordan’s odds have risen to 40%.

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