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Strategy founder Michael Saylor (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

TD Cowen lowers Strategy price target while bitcoin continues to rise

The analysts also set a base case assumption of bitcoin hitting $177,000 by December 26, with an upside scenario of $225,000 and a much bleaker downside scenario of $60,000.

TD Cowen analysts lowered their price target on Strategy to $440 from $500, citing its “audacious” bitcoin buying and noting that “greater equity in the mix reduces BTC yield.”

Lance Vitanza, managing director and senior analyst at TD Cowen, wrote in a January 14 note that the company “has not only survived the latest period of price compression; it has leaned into it.”

In the past week, Strategy raised $1.25 billion through the issuance of common stock and its variable-rate Stretch preferred stock, using “all but $0.5 million” to buy 13,627 bitcoin.

Vitanza added that the company remains attractive “for those looking to create bitcoin exposure,” and expects Strategy to now buy 155,000 bitcoin, versus the previous expectation of 90,000. TD Cowen maintained its “buy” rating.

Vitanza said long-term investors (four or more years) who are big believers in bitcoin should focus on the common shares, as “to the extent bitcoin outperforms most other asset classes, MSTR will outperform bitcoin handsomely, in our opinion.”

For risk-averse investors seeking exposure to bitcoin, Vitanza said they should focus on the senior preferred STRF shares.

“These shares are covered 6.4x by the value of the company’s bitcoin holdings, which means bitcoin would have to fall to $14k for the shares to even potentially become impaired,” Vitanza told Sherwood News.

TD Cowen analysts also set a base case assumption of bitcoin hitting $177,000 by December 26, with an upside scenario of $225,000 and a much bleaker downside scenario of $60,000.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin Treasuries released its 2025 Audience Survey, which found that 90% of respondents expect Strategy’s bitcoin holdings to increase, and nearly half believe the company will hold 1 million bitcoin in 2026, up from the current 687,410.

Another 12% expect Strategy to reach 1.5 million BTC, and 6% expect it to hold between 2 and 3 million BTC.

Investors also expect bitcoin digital asset treasuries to double by the end of 2026, with 32.4% expecting total corporate holdings to reach about 1.7 million bitcoin, “close to twice today’s levels.”

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Ethereum gives up its 2026 gains

As the overall market goes risk-off amid geopolitical tensions, ethereum has decreased 7% in the last 24 hours and is basically flat for 2026.

The cryptocurrency is hovering just below $3,000, a more than 10% pullback from this year’s high of around $3,350. The recent drawdown is the sharpest in the last 24 hours among its peers. Over the same period, bitcoin is down 3.6%, XRP dipped 5.2%, solana slumped 5.6%, and dogecoin tumbled 4%. 

Meanwhile, leading ethereum treasury firm BitMine Immersion Technologies, which recently announced a $200 million investment into Beast Industries, acquired an additional 35,268 ethereum tokens worth $108 million last week, bringing its total to 4.2 million tokens worth nearly $12.7 billion at current prices. 

The firm also allocated 581,920 tokens for staking, ethereum’s security mechanism. Participation has been on the rise, and the entry queue to start staking is multiple times longer than the exit line.

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Ethereum parent chain sets new record in daily transactions

On Wednesday, the ethereum parent chain logged its highest-ever transaction count at over 2.5 million transactions, a roughly 34% increase from 1.9 million transactions on the first day of the new year, data from blockchain analytics firm Artemis shows. 

Artemis research analyst Alex Weseley told Sherwood News the largest drivers of the network’s transaction growth stems from Circle and Tether’s stablecoins, USDC and USDT, as usage of both are up over 200% year over year. 

“It has also been interesting to see that the average transaction fee has remained low at < $0.20 per transaction, compared to the $52 average transaction fee paid when transaction counts peaked in 2021,” Weseley added.

The all-time high follows the activation of Pectra and Fusaka last year, two network upgrades aimed at enhancing the scalability of ethereum. “The changes ethereum is making to scale the L1 are starting to pay off, though we are still in the early innings,” Weseley said.

The price of ethereum has increased ~7% in the past seven days, outpacing its peers bitcoin, XRP, solana, and dogecoin. Meanwhile, spot ethereum ETFs trading in the US have seen almost $415.9 million in total inflows during the year so far, with $175 million from Wednesday alone, per SoSoValue. 

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When will bitcoin break $100,000 again?

Bitcoin is having a strong start to 2026 that could see it catch up with precious metals’ rally. Bitcoin ETFs are also rallying, and saw their second consecutive day of massive inflows, recording $843.6 million on Wednesday, according to SoSoValue, bringing the total for the week to $1.7 billion.

Jake Kennis, research analyst at Nansen, told Sherwood News that a combination of easing inflation fears, geopolitical safe haven demand, stronger ETF inflows, and a technical breakout above $94,000 to $96,000 resistance are all converging to push BTC toward $100,000.

“The rally has solid institutional and onchain backing, but elevated leverage in futures markets and profit-taking by top traders near the $97K–$100K psychological resistance could trigger volatility,” Kennis said.

While bitcoin has retreated after nearing key resistance levels, Timot Lamarre, director of market research at Unchained, said that despite the asset having been well off all-time highs, it is set up for a sustainable run above $100,000.

“Institutions continue to open up bitcoin buying opportunities to new pools of capital, the macro environment continues to move toward significant monetary easing, and governments, companies, and individuals continue to increase their bitcoin stockpiles,” he said.

The analytics team at B2BINPAY echoed the sentiment, saying that the market structure remains bullish, “with potential to reach $100–105K in the coming weeks, potentially reaching the $120K–140K range later in 2026 if demand stays in place.” 

A failure would likely mean a pullback to the $88,000 to $90,000 range, where liquidity is already concentrated, they said.

“Another crucial marker is leverage. Funding rates and open interest are far from extreme, with total OI at around $65B. That’s high. Yet, it’s still below the prior record/near-record zone seen in 2025, around $72B–$75B. So the market isn’t stretched,” the analysts said.

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BitMine announces $200 million investment in Beast Industries, the business arm of YouTube star MrBeast

Not content with generating money through digital assets, BitMine Immersion Technologies is also attempting to cash in on another largely incorporeal industry: the attention spans of young people.

The ethereum treasury company announced a $200 million equity investment into Beast Industries, the holding company for the various ventures of YouTube star Jimmy Donaldson, aka MrBeast. While most of these operations revolve around digital content, we’d be remiss not to note that this also includes Feastables.

“MrBeast and Beast Industries, in our view, is the leading content creator of our generation, with a reach and engagement unmatched with GenZ, GenAlpha and Millennials,” said BitMine Chairman Tom Lee. “Beast Industries is the largest and most innovative creator based platform in the world and our corporate and personal values are strongly aligned.”

Beast Industries CEO Jeff Housenbold added that the company was looking forward to “exploring ways to further collaborate and incorporate DeFi into our upcoming financial services platform.”

However, in my personal view this is hardly the most eye-catching collaboration MrBeast has been involved with in the past 24 hours...

Mr Beast YouTube views

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.