A large bitcoin ice carving (Kirsty O'Connor/Getty Images)

Standard Chartered: Bitcoin’s dip below $100,000 is “inevitable”

Participants in prediction markets are also betting that bitcoin will dip below $100,000 this year.

10/22/25 11:21AM

bitcoin is still struggling to rebound noticeably and is hovering around $108,000 Wednesday morning, a 14% drop from its October 6 all-time high.

Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said that the drop below $100,000 is “inevitable,” but also said it will be “short-lived.”

“Stay nimble and ready to buy the dip below 100k if it comes. It may be the last time bitcoin is EVER below 100k,” he wrote in a Wednesday note, adding, “The question now is how far does bitcoin need to fall before finding a base?”

According to him, several factors are worth keeping an eye on, including gold vs. bitcoin flows and liquidity measures.

“Yesterday’s sharp gold selloff coincided with a strong intra-day bounce in bitcoin. Gold has been outperforming bitcoin a lot recently... something which has perhaps started to turn,” he wrote.

Finally, technical metrics are also of note, as the “50 week moving average in bitcoin has held since early 2023 (when bitcoin was 25k and I forecast it to reach 100k by end-2024),” he wrote.

Nonetheless, Kendrick told Sherwood News that he remains “very bullish long term... I’m forecasting 200k year-end 2025 and 500k end 2028.”

Meanwhile, market-implied probabilities derived from event contracts offered on Robinhood show that traders believe there’s a 66% chance bitcoin drops below $100,000 this year. Traders are pricing a 33% chance of a further drop below $90,000 in the predictions market.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions.)

Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, noted that bitcoin funding rates are trending into negative territory, while open interest is on the rise again.

“This suggests that traders are mostly opening short positions, and the 24-hour long/short ratio confirms this,” he said.

Puckrin said that the spark could come from the reopening of the US government or a softening of the US-China trade war. Failing that, next week’s Federal Reserve meeting is likely to bring another rate cut.

“At this point, there is more potential for good news than bad. This is precisely why traders should think twice before opening leveraged shorts right now. When everyone bets against the recovery, that’s often when it happens, and the reversal will likely be swift,” he said.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

Bitcoin tumbles as oil and gas prices spike and the market’s mood turns risk-off

Bitcoin ETFs reverted to outflows and bitcoin suffered $192 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours.

Sage D. Young3/18/26

Payward, parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, puts plans for IPO on hold

Payward, crypto exchange Kraken’s parent company, has paused its plans for an initial public offering until market conditions improve, according to a report from CoinDesk that cited two people with knowledge of the matter.

Since the firm announced in November its preparation for an IPO of its common stock, the total market capitalization of the crypto industry has shed around $652.2 billion, from $3.2 trillion to $2.5 trillion as of Wednesday, data from CoinGecko shows.

The news comes two weeks after Kraken received approval for a master account from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, allowing the crypto exchange to connect to the Fed’s payment infrastructure used by traditional banks and credit unions.

Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.

Payward, parent of crypto exchange Kraken, has put its IPO plans on hold

Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.

Sage D. Young3/18/26

SEC and CFTC issue new guidance on how securities laws apply to crypto assets

On Tuesday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission, together with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, issued an interpretation clarifying how federal securities law applies to crypto assets, a first step toward developing a clearer regulatory framework.

The interpretive guidance introduces a token taxonomy for different types of cryptocurrencies, with SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins adding that “most crypto assets are not themselves securities.”

Examples of a digital commodity, “a crypto asset that is intrinsically linked to and derives its value from the programmatic operation of a crypto system that is ‘functional,’” include:

Aptos, avalanche, bitcoin, bitcoin cash, cardano, chainlink, dogecoin, ethereum, hedera, litecoin, polkadot, shiba inu, solana, stellar, tezos, and XRP.

The guidance also includes definitions of digital collectibles (such as NFTs), stablecoins, digital tools, and digital securities (such as tokenized real-world assets and stocks).

This is a monumental step in the mainstream adoption of the industry and clears a hurdle in how crypto can operate going forward, according to David Pakman, head of venture investments at CoinFund. “This will allow new token designs with the confidence that their existence does not require registration with the SEC, etc.,” Pakman told Sherwood News.

Despite the clarification efforts from the two organizations, the market capitalization of the crypto industry has dropped about 2% in the last 24 hours as each of the tokens mentioned in the guidance are trading lower in the period, data from CoinGecko shows.

The joint agency action also complements congressional efforts to turn a crypto market structure framework into law. With the goal of providing regulations on the offer and sale of digital commodities, the CLARITY Act passed the House of Representatives last year and is now sitting in the Senate.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

3/18/26

Citi analysts cut 12-month bitcoin projection to $112,000 from $143,000

The analysts’ bear-case scenario is $57,537, based on “recessionary macro-factors, especially weak equity markets,” which could cause ETF flows to stall.

Sage D. Young3/17/26

Bitcoin sees 8 consecutive days of gains, a streak not seen in 4 years

Bitcoin is on a winning streak. The cryptocurrency has generated eight straight days of positive returns, a rare phenomenon that has occurred only 15 times since Satoshi Nakamoto created it, according to a CoinDesk report.

In the 30 days after posting an eight-day streak, bitcoin traded higher nine times and lower six times. The median return in the period is roughly 19%. Despite the historical gains that followed, the last time bitcoin had such a rally, four years ago, it dropped roughly 30%.

Most recently, bitcoin climbed from below $66,000 on March 8 to over $75,000 yesterday before settling around $73,800 on Tuesday morning.

Traders remain modestly bullish on the likelihood of further gains, though the sentiment is fading: prediction market-implied odds of bitcoin trading above $77,500 in the month stand at 54%, a decrease from 73% on Monday.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Bitcoin hits rare 8-day winning streak – but 2022 bear market saw one too