“Triple witching” day may put further pressure on bitcoin’s price

Bitcoin remains stuck in the $70,000 level on Friday morning, and bitcoin ETFs experienced their second consecutive day of outflows on Thursday with a $90 million exodus, SoSoValue data shows.

In addition to broad geopolitical and macro factors weighing on crypto, another event that may add volatility to bitcoin is today’s “triple witching,” when the expiration of stock options, index options, and index futures all occur on the same Friday. Some refer to the day as “quadruple witching,” but as single-stock futures are not currently trading in the US, that final leg has little impact.

Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, told Sherwood News that this is still a bear market rally and further downside is still in the cards from here.

“If BTC rallies in the short term, key resistance remains around $73,000, and then at around $81,000 if it extends gains,” Puckrin said.

He said that “witching” days tend to affect crypto in the weeks that follow, since large options expirations often force a reset in positioning and liquidity.

Historically, he said, bitcoin has tended to drift lower for one to three weeks after events like these, adding, however, that this is a short-term signal; what matters more is the macro backdrop.

“And right now, the risk of a prolonged oil shock that feeds into the economy is increasing. The longer oil remains above $100, the greater the impact will likely be on liquidity, inflation, and growth. Structurally, this is typically not a favorable environment for risk assets,” Puckrin said.

In addition, Puckrin said that as oil infrastructure disruption intensifies, investors are too complacent about the downside risks.

“If oil stays above $100 throughout Q2 and into Q3, stagflation becomes a real problem for the Fed,” he said, adding that the markets may be in for a rude awakening when investors realize that President Trump doesn’t control the outcome of this conflict.

One hopeful sign for bitcoin, however, is that long-term holder selling appears to be slowing, a potentially constructive signal, according to a Van Eck report.

“Declining transfer activity among these cohorts typically signals reduced distribution pressure from experienced market participants,” Van Eck analysts said.

On the other hand, bitcoin options markets suggest investors remain defensive, the analysts said, with total options open interest rising to $33 billion, “indicating derivatives exposure remains elevated even as futures leverage has cooled.”

“The put/call open interest ratio, which compares the volume of bearish options bets to bullish ones, peaked at 0.84 and averaged 0.77, the highest level since June 2021, when China banned bitcoin mining,” they said. “At current levels, the ratio sits in the 91st percentile of observations since mid-2019, highlighting unusually strong demand for downside hedging relative to bullish positioning.”

Abra CEO Bill Barhydt pointed to a tight liquidity situation. “All else equal, monetary inflation creates a long-term upward bias in scarce assets, but demand still dominates price in the medium term,” Barhydt told Sherwood. He added that price is still demand-driven, and in the short to medium term, it behaves like a high-beta liquidity asset. 

He predicted that there will be improvements in the liquidity situation this year, which equates to incremental significant money printing this year. 

“I don’t think bitcoin is front-running that yet. I don’t think the market believes everything I’m saying yet,” Barhydt said.

In terms of levels, Barhydt said that while bitcoin has “kind of stabilized,” it could stay range-bound between $60,000 and $90,000 for another several months at least. Yet, he also thinks there will be an all-time high in 2026. 

Finally, he said that crypto is still, by and large, a retail market, but right now retail money is nowhere to be found, and retail sentiment in general is “very, very low.”

“Even ETFs at the end of the day are an interface for retail to buy securitized versions of bitcoin. If you’re just talking about price, I think you need retail,” he said.