JPMorgan, Bernstein initiate Circle coverage, with stark contrasts

Both JPMorgan and Bernstein initiated coverage of the newly public stablecoin powerhouse Circle today, but had very different takes on the company’s trajectory.

Circle, which had a mammoth IPO earlier this month, saw its stock skyrocket following the Senate passing the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, which aims to provide a regulatory framework for stablecoins.

JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington argues that competition could be a “potential threat to Circle,” assigning the company an underweight rating and an $80 price target. This would be a roughly 50% drop from its current price.

“We think highly of the Circle management team and are confident in the outlook for outsized stablecoin and USDC growth. However, we see Circle’s current market capitalization elevated,” Worthington wrote.

Meanwhile, Bernstein analysts were more upbeat, giving Circle an outperform rating and a price target of $230, roughly a 28% jump from today.

“Circle is building a market-leading digital dollar stablecoin network, with a strong regulatory edge, liquidity headstart and marquee distribution partnerships,” analyst Gautam Chhugani wrote. “We view CRCL as an investor must-hold.”

Mike Cahill, cofounder and CEO of Douro Labs, said the dichotomy lies in Bernstein's ability to see the big picture.

“Circle is doing so much more than just issuing a stablecoin — it’s building critical financial infrastructure for the internet economy. At the end of the day, JPMorgan’s caution likely reflects their legacy bias,” Cahill said. “Circle is one of the few crypto-native companies positioned to compete with traditional financial rails head-on.”

Dillon Liang, cofounder of Blueprint, also noted that Wall Street’s split on Circle reflects the classic growth versus valuation debate, but with a crypto twist.

The bulls see Circle as one of the only pure-play public companies positioned to benefit from explosive stablecoin adoption. Coupled with the GENIUS Act, this makes Circle a compelling story for investors who want stablecoin exposure without buying crypto directly.

Liang said that the bears aren’t wrong about valuation after a six-fold run from the IPO price, but added, “The analyst split ultimately comes down to whether you believe stablecoins will become mainstream payment rails or remain a niche crypto product. Given that stablecoin transaction volume already exceeds Visa and Mastercard combined, the bulls have a strong case for paying up for scarcity value.”  

Last week, Barclays also initiated coverage of Circle, with an overweight rating and a price target of $125. Analysts wrote that stablecoins are at an inflection point and will “soon exit the crypto economy to become a more important aspect of the traditional financial ecosystem,” and said Circle “is well positioned to be the stablecoin issuer of choice.”