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Hyperliquid is the “1,000 pound gorilla in the room” leading year-to-date market gains amidst conflict in the Middle East

While the crypto industry has shed $564.3 billion in 2026, Hyperliquid’s native token has bucked the downtrend and jumped 54.8% year-to-date.

Sage D. Young

Hyperliquid has been moving in the opposite direction of the crypto industry, rising since the beginning of 2026 as bitcoin, ethereum, xrp, solana, and dogecoin have fallen.

Hype, the native token for the perpetual futures blockchain that does not close shop, has gained 54% year-to-date, making Hyperion DeFi and Hyperliquid Strategies the only digital asset treasury firms in profit, according to data analytics firm Artemis.

“Hyperliquid is the 1,000 pound gorilla in the room. It's tearing up what we thought was possible for crypto, building something much bigger and much faster than most of the industry,” according to Bitwise research analyst Danny Nelson.

Yesterday, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced it was officially licensing the most tracked stock index for a derivative contract on the blockchain network, which means users can use up to 50X leverage to trade the S&P 500.

Mario Stefanidis, fundamental research lead at data analytics firm Artemis, said the announcement is a substantial change beyond just Hyperliquid as equity markets are transitioning to 24/7/365 trading. “The stock market is open for regular trading hours only about 19% of the year, so this is a huge shift,” Stefanidis told Sherwood News.

“Vibes-wise, there's no token in crypto right now quite like HYPE,” Nelson said. “It leveraged the Middle East crisis into a win by providing a service traders didn't know they needed.”

He pointed to the October launch of HIP-3, the permissionless perps markets that trade oil, gold, silver, and gas. “These markets are stickier than your average crypto perps market. Only 27% of crypto perps traders stick around past month three, but 64% of Hyperliquid's commodities traders stay engaged,” Nelson continued.

As of Thursday afternoon, the perpetual futures contracts for WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude Oil, and silver have a combined trading volume of $2.3 billion, placing them among the top five contracts on Hyperliquid by 24-hour trading volume. Gold has $232.6 million in volume, ninth highest on the platform, data sourced from the venue’s web interface shows.

“I think this high retention rate gives credence to HYPE's $40 billion valuation… If Hyperliquid can carry its success through into calmer markets, I believe it will continue to grow,” Nelson said.

Hyperliquid’s token performance normally shows a high correlation to the protocol’s revenue stemming from trading fees on its decentralized perpetual and spot exchange, according to Stefanidis.

“However, since the peak in February, revenues have declined -34% from ~$770mm to ~$510mm on a 30D annualized basis, while price has increased +40% from $30 to $42 [yesterday],” Stefanidis stated. “This divergence suggests the market is no longer pricing HYPE purely as a cash-flow asset, but rather as a growth asset with significant optionality,” Stefanidis argued.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

Bitcoin tumbles as oil and gas prices spike and the market’s mood turns risk-off

Bitcoin ETFs reverted to outflows and bitcoin suffered $192 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours.

Sage D. Young3/18/26

Payward, parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, puts plans for IPO on hold

Payward, crypto exchange Kraken’s parent company, has paused its plans for an initial public offering until market conditions improve, according to a report from CoinDesk that cited two people with knowledge of the matter.

Since the firm announced in November its preparation for an IPO of its common stock, the total market capitalization of the crypto industry has shed around $652.2 billion, from $3.2 trillion to $2.5 trillion as of Wednesday, data from CoinGecko shows.

The news comes two weeks after Kraken received approval for a master account from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, allowing the crypto exchange to connect to the Fed’s payment infrastructure used by traditional banks and credit unions.

Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.

Payward, parent of crypto exchange Kraken, has put its IPO plans on hold

Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.

Sage D. Young3/18/26

SEC and CFTC issue new guidance on how securities laws apply to crypto assets

On Tuesday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission, together with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, issued an interpretation clarifying how federal securities law applies to crypto assets, a first step toward developing a clearer regulatory framework.

The interpretive guidance introduces a token taxonomy for different types of cryptocurrencies, with SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins adding that “most crypto assets are not themselves securities.”

Examples of a digital commodity, “a crypto asset that is intrinsically linked to and derives its value from the programmatic operation of a crypto system that is ‘functional,’” include:

Aptos, avalanche, bitcoin, bitcoin cash, cardano, chainlink, dogecoin, ethereum, hedera, litecoin, polkadot, shiba inu, solana, stellar, tezos, and XRP.

The guidance also includes definitions of digital collectibles (such as NFTs), stablecoins, digital tools, and digital securities (such as tokenized real-world assets and stocks).

This is a monumental step in the mainstream adoption of the industry and clears a hurdle in how crypto can operate going forward, according to David Pakman, head of venture investments at CoinFund. “This will allow new token designs with the confidence that their existence does not require registration with the SEC, etc.,” Pakman told Sherwood News.

Despite the clarification efforts from the two organizations, the market capitalization of the crypto industry has dropped about 2% in the last 24 hours as each of the tokens mentioned in the guidance are trading lower in the period, data from CoinGecko shows.

The joint agency action also complements congressional efforts to turn a crypto market structure framework into law. With the goal of providing regulations on the offer and sale of digital commodities, the CLARITY Act passed the House of Representatives last year and is now sitting in the Senate.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

3/18/26

Citi analysts cut 12-month bitcoin projection to $112,000 from $143,000

The analysts’ bear-case scenario is $57,537, based on “recessionary macro-factors, especially weak equity markets,” which could cause ETF flows to stall.

Sage D. Young3/17/26

Bitcoin sees 8 consecutive days of gains, a streak not seen in 4 years

Bitcoin is on a winning streak. The cryptocurrency has generated eight straight days of positive returns, a rare phenomenon that has occurred only 15 times since Satoshi Nakamoto created it, according to a CoinDesk report.

In the 30 days after posting an eight-day streak, bitcoin traded higher nine times and lower six times. The median return in the period is roughly 19%. Despite the historical gains that followed, the last time bitcoin had such a rally, four years ago, it dropped roughly 30%.

Most recently, bitcoin climbed from below $66,000 on March 8 to over $75,000 yesterday before settling around $73,800 on Tuesday morning.

Traders remain modestly bullish on the likelihood of further gains, though the sentiment is fading: prediction market-implied odds of bitcoin trading above $77,500 in the month stand at 54%, a decrease from 73% on Monday.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Bitcoin hits rare 8-day winning streak – but 2022 bear market saw one too