Deflated bitcoin balloon (Getty Images)

Fears grow that bitcoin is entering a bear market

“While a new all-time high this year still isn’t out of the question, the next 30 days will be crucial in determining whether a bear market is already here.”

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

1/26/26 10:36AM

Gold crossed $5,000 for the first time, but digital gold is not shining — bitcoin has been stuck in the $86,126 to $88,607 range over the past 24 hours, in what some see as the start of a bear market amid accruing challenges.

“While surveys suggest institutional investors are still bullish over the long term, fears are growing that bitcoin is entering a bear market — with a large proportion of institutional investors believing it may already be in one,” Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, told Sherwood News.

Puckrin said the chart is currently looking weak, and though a short-term recovery to around $92,000 is likely, the longer bitcoin remains under $100,000, the more momentum will trend to the downside, despite the return of dollar debasement fears.

“While a new all-time high this year still isn’t out of the question, the next 30 days will be crucial in determining whether a bear market is already here,” Puckrin said.

Short-term, bitcoin is facing several headwinds, including another looming government shutdown, geopolitical tensions, the upcoming 2026 FOMC meeting, and worries that tech earnings will disappoint, which could bring more volatility and sell-offs, dragging bitcoin down with it.

Ray Youssef, CEO of crypto app NoOnes, said that despite attempts to position BTC as digital gold, the market is increasingly showing the opposite: during periods of political turbulence, capital flows into precious metals, not crypto, creating a complicated backdrop for a market rally.

“Bitcoin remains stuck in a reactive, volatile mode, with an estimated base range for the week at $85,000–$90,000. An escalation of geopolitical tensions, including the Iran factor, as well as a jump in oil prices, increases the risks of a decline to the mid-$70,000 range,” Youssef said.

Farzam Ehsani, cofounder and CEO of VALR, also said that bitcoin’s recent weakness and market fragility are likely to prompt participants to seek hedged positions, reduce exposure, and preserve capital.

Ehsani said the energy sector and corporate earnings season add another layer of risk, given the negative correlation between crypto assets and oil price hikes and repeated examples of stock sell-offs spilling over into crypto.

“If major tech companies miss earnings expectations and geopolitical conflict disrupts key oil distribution channels, BTC could see a deeper decline into the mid-$70,000s,” he said.

Meanwhile, bitcoin ETFs shed a whopping $1.3 billion last week, the largest weekly outflows since November 21, according to SoSoValue, and CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index is back in the fear zone, standing at 29.

Sage D. Young18h

Payward, parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, puts plans for IPO on hold

Payward, crypto exchange Kraken’s parent company, has paused its plans for an initial public offering until market conditions improve, according to a report from CoinDesk that cited two people with knowledge of the matter.

Since the firm announced in November its preparation for an IPO of its common stock, the total market capitalization of the crypto industry has shed around $652.2 billion, from $3.2 trillion to $2.5 trillion as of Wednesday, data from CoinGecko shows.

The news comes two weeks after Kraken received approval for a master account from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, allowing the crypto exchange to connect to the Fed’s payment infrastructure used by traditional banks and credit unions.

Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.

Payward, parent of crypto exchange Kraken, has put its IPO plans on hold

Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.

Sage D. Young19h

SEC and CFTC issue new guidance on how securities laws apply to crypto assets

On Tuesday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission, together with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, issued an interpretation clarifying how federal securities law applies to crypto assets, a first step toward developing a clearer regulatory framework.

The interpretive guidance introduces a token taxonomy for different types of cryptocurrencies, with SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins adding that “most crypto assets are not themselves securities.”

Examples of a digital commodity, “a crypto asset that is intrinsically linked to and derives its value from the programmatic operation of a crypto system that is ‘functional,’” include:

Aptos, avalanche, bitcoin, bitcoin cash, cardano, chainlink, dogecoin, ethereum, hedera, litecoin, polkadot, shiba inu, solana, stellar, tezos, and XRP.

The guidance also includes definitions of digital collectibles (such as NFTs), stablecoins, digital tools, and digital securities (such as tokenized real-world assets and stocks).

This is a monumental step in the mainstream adoption of the industry and clears a hurdle in how crypto can operate going forward, according to David Pakman, head of venture investments at CoinFund. “This will allow new token designs with the confidence that their existence does not require registration with the SEC, etc.,” Pakman told Sherwood News.

Despite the clarification efforts from the two organizations, the market capitalization of the crypto industry has dropped about 2% in the last 24 hours as each of the tokens mentioned in the guidance are trading lower in the period, data from CoinGecko shows.

The joint agency action also complements congressional efforts to turn a crypto market structure framework into law. With the goal of providing regulations on the offer and sale of digital commodities, the CLARITY Act passed the House of Representatives last year and is now sitting in the Senate.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

20h

Citi analysts cut 12-month bitcoin projection to $112,000 from $143,000

The analysts’ bear-case scenario is $57,537, based on “recessionary macro-factors, especially weak equity markets,” which could cause ETF flows to stall.

Sage D. Young3/17/26

Bitcoin sees 8 consecutive days of gains, a streak not seen in 4 years

Bitcoin is on a winning streak. The cryptocurrency has generated eight straight days of positive returns, a rare phenomenon that has occurred only 15 times since Satoshi Nakamoto created it, according to a CoinDesk report.

In the 30 days after posting an eight-day streak, bitcoin traded higher nine times and lower six times. The median return in the period is roughly 19%. Despite the historical gains that followed, the last time bitcoin had such a rally, four years ago, it dropped roughly 30%.

Most recently, bitcoin climbed from below $66,000 on March 8 to over $75,000 yesterday before settling around $73,800 on Tuesday morning.

Traders remain modestly bullish on the likelihood of further gains, though the sentiment is fading: prediction market-implied odds of bitcoin trading above $77,500 in the month stand at 54%, a decrease from 73% on Monday.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Bitcoin hits rare 8-day winning streak – but 2022 bear market saw one too

Most recently, bitcoin climbed from below $66,000 on March 8 to over $75,000 yesterday before settling around $73,800 on Tuesday morning.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy3/17/26

Another miner sells its bitcoin

Despite bitcoin being on the rebound, another bitcoin miner sold a chunk of its holdings to further its pivot to AI. In February, Cango, a former automotive service, said it sold 4,451 bitcoin in favor of AI, just a year after becoming a miner. The company said it used the proceeds of the sale to pay down long-term debt and “reduce the overall finance leverage and strengthen the balance sheet,” according to its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings release.

Shares were up 4.5% in premarket trading.

Cango recorded a net loss from continuing operations of $452.8 million in 2025, “primarily due to non-recurring transformation costs and market-driven fair-value adjustments,” it said.

Its “adjusted bitcoin treasury policy” will “provide the financial flexibility needed to navigate volatility and invest in high-potential areas like AI infrastructure,” Cango said.

Bitcoin’s earlier downward trajectory has pressured several miners, which are choosing to pivot to AI and sell their assets or exit the business entirely.

Cango’s move follows Core Scientific, which sold over 1,900 bitcoin for $175 million in January as it shifts even more of its focus to the AI data center boom.

As bitcoin mining economics “have gone from bad to worse,” companies pivot and sell to survive