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Bitcoin sign (Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Crypto market rises on softer inflation, but can the gains hold?

The rally is much-needed after a brutal week for the asset class, but confidence it will last is low.

Bitcoin and the overall crypto market got a much-needed (and very welcomed) jolt this morning following February’s CPI report, which was softer than expected. Inflation increased 0.2% for the month, or 2.8% annually. The consensus had been 0.3% and 2.9%, respectively.

Aside from bitcoin, some cryptos surged even more following the report, including dogecoin and Solana, which are both up about 3% as of 10 a.m. ET.

The rally is also lifting stocks of bitcoin-heavy companies like Strategy and MARA Holdings, as well as platforms popular with crypto traders like Robinhood and Coinbase. (Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company.)

Now, whether this will be the catalyst needed to revive the crypto market for the long term remains to be seen. Bitcoin (and most other cryptos and crypto-related stocks) have been hit since the tepid and uneventful inaugural White House Crypto Summit that followed Trump’s executive order on the national bitcoin reserve

Reactions to this morning’s rally are muted. 

Chris Chung, founder of solana-based swap platform Titan, said that while cryptos are looking green across the board today, fears over the impact of tariffs and the potential for a US recession still hang heavy over markets.

“This puts somewhat of a lid on the rally,” Chung said.

Bitcoin is down 24% since its all-time high of $109,114 on Inauguration Day. And the latest boost could be short-lived as nervous investors await more clarity on the economy’s outlook. 

Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau, told Sherwood News that after an initial pump, he expects both bitcoin and the stock market to remain in the doldrums until macroeconomic prospects look clearer.

“If Trump is as hellbent on forcing Fed Chair Jerome Powell into cutting rates sooner rather than later, then more pain is likely in store for risk assets until he gets what he wants,” Puckrin said. “The current recession fears and uncertainty won’t let bitcoin or stocks go significantly higher from here.” 

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Altcoin trading activity has lost its mojo

Non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies have seen their trading volume plummet in the past five months. The combined trading volume of ethereum, XRP, solana, dogecoin, SUI, and chainlink has decreased by 60% since crypto’s October 10 liquidation event, according to Thomas Probst, a research analyst at crypto markets data provider Kaiko.

Main Altcoins Trading Volume in USD
The trading volume of ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, SUI, and LINK.

For all altcoins, spot trading volume on Binance has declined between 80% and 85% to $7.7 billion, while altcoin volume on other exchanges has dropped to $18.8 billion, down from a range of $63 billion to $91 billion in October, a Friday report from Decrypt found, citing data from CryptoQuant.

“This trend may be explained by a contraction in market liquidity over the same period,” Probst told Sherwood News. “This phenomenon is also reflected in the average 1% market depth, which stood at approximately $2.6 million before the October 10 crash and is now closer to $1.7 million when aggregated across ETH, XRP, SOL, SUI, and LINK.” 

Market depth is used by investors and traders to gauge the scale of liquidity in a market. 1% market depth refers to the amount of liquidity needed to move the market by 1%. 

CoinGlass’s Altcoin Season Index, a measure to assess the performance of non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies, has been sitting above 50 this week, suggesting that the current market is neither in a bitcoin dominant phase nor an altcoin season.

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Payward, parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, puts plans for IPO on hold

Payward, crypto exchange Kraken’s parent company, has paused its plans for an initial public offering until market conditions improve, according to a report from CoinDesk that cited two people with knowledge of the matter. 

Since the firm announced in November its preparation for an IPO of its common stock, the total market capitalization of the crypto industry has shed around $652.2 billion, from $3.2 trillion to $2.5 trillion as of Wednesday, data from CoinGecko shows. 

The news comes two weeks after Kraken received approval for a master account from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, allowing the crypto exchange to connect to the Fed’s payment infrastructure used by traditional banks and credit unions. 

Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.

The news comes two weeks after Kraken received approval for a master account from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, allowing the crypto exchange to connect to the Fed’s payment infrastructure used by traditional banks and credit unions. 

Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.

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