A bronze statue of Satoshi Nakamoto (Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images)

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Bitcoin treasury firm Nakamoto bought high and sold much, much lower as bitcoin suffers another bad quarter

Bitcoin is on track to close the first quarter of 2026 down more than 24%.

Things are looking bleak for bitcoin again, as it’s down 1.8% in the past 24 hours and on track to close the first quarter of 2026 down more than 24%, its worst quarter since 2022, CoinGlass data shows.

On Tuesday morning, bitcoin saw a tiny bump following reports that President Trump intended to end the conflict in the Middle East, but it quickly lost those gains, and as of writing, it’s down 0.57% for the month, setting it up for its sixth consecutive month in the red and its first-ever triple red start of the year.

Things are looking bleak too for bitcoin treasury firm Nakamoto, which has failed to rise above $1 a share since it got a delisting warning notice from Nasdaq in December. In March, it sold 284 bitcoin for $20 million, at $70,422, well below its $118,171 average cost (a 40% cut), according to a 10-K filing yesterday. The company, which went public in August, said it plans to use the proceeds “to invest further in our businesses as well [as] replenish our working capital for costs associated with the recent mergers.” Investors seemed to like the move, as shares were up about 2% in early trading. But the shares are down over 41% year to date.

Nic Puckrin, cofounder and CEO of Coin Bureau, told Sherwood News that cracks are beginning to show in the digital asset treasury (DAT) market, and Nakamoto may be the first of many to offload some of its bitcoin at a loss as the bear market drags on.

“There is real contagion risk here,” Puckrin said, adding that bitcoin’s ongoing weakness would put further pressure on DATs, which could in turn exacerbate the sell-off.

Meanwhile, macro and geopolitical drivers continue to shape bitcoin’s trajectory, still stuck in a tight range and seemingly unable to break either way.

Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com, told Sherwood that the technicals don’t look great yet, as the downtrend is still intact “and it looks like bitcoin wants to break lower.”

Key levels Rodda is watching remain $60,000 and $74,000.

Rodda BTC chart March — (Credit: Kyle Rodda)

“We need a decisive break and hold above that level before feeling more confident the bottom is in,” Rodda said.

Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue, said that key levels he’s watching this week include immediate support between $65,500 and $67,800 (Fibonacci retracements and recent lows) and stronger defense near $65,000.

Meanwhile, he said that resistance looms at the $69,800 to $70,000 level, then $71,500 to $72,500 (former support now overhead and 50-day exponential moving average zone), but failure to hold $66,000 risks a deeper correction in the current neutral to cautious setup.

In a bit of a silver lining, bitcoin ETFs saw (minuscule) inflows, registering $69.4 million in inflows on Monday, bringing the overall month to $1.2 billion, per SoSoValue.

Finally, another optimistic factor is that one month into the Iran war, bitcoin performed better than gold (down 13% this month) and the S&P 500 (down 6.2%).

Justin D’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told Sherwood that the current range feels tighter than it looks when you factor in thin weekend liquidity and how it absorbed the latest Iran escalation — “with retracement, sure, but without cracking like equities did.”

“The mid-60s seem to be like an accumulation level. Realistically, this is still macro-driven. Unless this is a major bluff by the US, with troops landing in Iran, it feels unlikely that this conflict will get resolved soon, and that will keep investors sober,” D’Anethan said.

Sage D. Young3/30/26

Ethereum looks likely to register first monthly green candle since August

Ethereum has increased nearly 4% in the last 24 hours, outpacing crypto majors in the period.

If the asset can hold the current level, trading around $2,065, ethereum will record its first monthly green candle since August, helping the token outperform the broader market slump during the Iran War.

Amid the news, BitMine Immersion Technologies, the largest ethereum treasury firm and largest staking entity, announced acquiring 71,179 tokens, or $146.3 million, in the past week.

“Crypto is demonstrating itself to be a good ‘war time’ store of value,” BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said in a press release.

“The inverse correlation of crypto (and equities) to oil has been increasing and is at the highest levels in the past year. This is logical. Until equity markets become comfortable with the future trajectory of oil prices, rising oil is a headwind for equities and crypto. And in a sense, the crypto winter likely ends when the upside risk to oil prices peaks,” Lee continued.

Meanwhile, ethereum ETFs suffered last week, with the investment vehicles registering $206.6 million in outflows, the third-most in the year, data from SoSoValue shows.

In other ethereum news:

The Ethereum Foundation staked around $46.2 million worth of ethereum on Monday, according to on-chain data. “This is more ETH than they have EVER staked before,” Arkham Intelligence said on social media.
Lido, the second-largest decentralized finance protocol and known for its liquid staking services, primarily for ethereum, is considering a $20 million buyback for its native token, LDO, which has plummeted nearly 96% since its all-time high of $7.30 set in 2021.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

3/30/26

Bitcoin lifts following Trump’s “great progress” comments, may break 5-month losing streak

“Under the surface, the market is not broken, though it is still thin.”

Bitcoin Medals Manufactured At Sakamoto Metal

Sage D. Young3/27/26

Altcoins have given back the majority of their gains since the Iran war began

While crypto altcoins outperformed for a long stretch after the outbreak of the US war with Iran, the asset class has retraced this past week.

XRP, solana, and ethereum have each dropped more than 6% in the past seven days as the total market capitalization for all of crypto (including bitcoin) has shed roughly $44 billion in the period, per CoinGecko.

Ethereum ETFs have also registered daily consecutive outflows for the past seven days, totaling more than $392.1 million. The last time these investment vehicles had such a streak was in December when ethereum decreased from $3,221 to $2,995, data from SoSoValue shows.

The Iran war was at first a positioning shock that saw crypto thrive, in part because the asset class was “lightly owned,” according to Fredrick Collins, CEO of crypto analytics platform Velo.xyz.

“Now as more concrete and persistent concerns about economic impacts have materialized, it’s not surprising to see crypto struggling as well,” Collins told Sherwood News. “In the face of cyclical (rather than transient) worries for risk assets in general, it’s not realistic to expect crypto to remain unscathed. And so we’ve unfortunately just not seen that initial relative strength in crypto continue to play out.”

Meanwhile, traders are expecting the price of ethereum to decline further this year. Prediction market-implied odds of the cryptocurrency sliding below $1,750 are at 81%, while the probability of the token tumbling under $1,500 stands at 68%, an increase from 52% on Monday.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

A drop to $1,457 would liquidate about 162,870 ethereum tokens’ worth of leveraged long positions, worth $323.3 million on Hyperliquid, per CoinGlass.

Slater Santer, a research analyst at trading firm GSR said, "Short term, the market likely remains flow-driven and headline-sensitive. Without a stabilization in ETF flows, a cooling in oil, or a renewed bid in equities, it's hard to argue for a sustained bounce in alts."

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

3/27/26

Bitcoin falls below $66,000 as Trump’s Iran extension fails to boost market sentiment

Bitcoin is on track to book its sixth consecutive month in the red.

Sage D. Young3/26/26

For the first time, Fannie Mae will allow mortgages to be backed by crypto

Fannie Mae, the government-backed mortgage finance giant, will start accepting mortgages backed by cryptocurrencies — namely bitcoin and Circle’s stablecoin, USDC.

Mortgage firm Better Home & Finance and US-based crypto exchange Coinbase Global are rolling out a new product that enables prospective homebuyers to pledge their digital assets as down payment collateral when obtaining a mortgage backed by Fannie Mae, The Wall Street Journal reported.

This means homebuyers can secure a standard conforming mortgage without liquidating tokenized assets, which potentially triggers a taxable event.

“If BTC drops in value, the mortgage terms remain unchanged, and no additional collateral is required. Market movements alone never trigger liquidation,” per a joint press release from Better and Coinbase.

“Token-backed mortgages originated by Better are designed in accordance with Fannie Mae guidelines and remain as standard conforming mortgage loans, identical to other conforming mortgages,” the announcement continued.

Max Branzburg, head of consumer and business products at Coinbase, said, “Token-backed mortgages are a major first step to unlocking homeownership for the younger generations that have struggled with barriers to saving for a traditional downpayment.”

The announcement comes more than nine months after William Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Agency, ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prepare a proposal that considers cryptocurrency as a reserve asset in single-family mortgage loan risk assessment.

Fannie Mae to Accept Crypto-Backed Mortgages for the First Time