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Bitcoin suffering “Painvember” as bitcoin ETFs suffer $1.1 billion in outflows

Bitcoin’s price dipped below $93,000 for the first time since April.

11/17/25 11:03AM

Bitcoin’s fourth quarter is now the worst since 2018, outpacing 2022 and 2019 and on track to surpass 2014’s 16.7% decline. November has historically been bitcoin’s best month, with an average return of 42.5%, but this month is shaping up to be “Painvember” as the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index drops to 14, indicating “extreme fear.”

Bitcoin dipped below $93,000 on Sunday, its lowest level since April, and was below $94,000 as of 10:30 a.m. ET Monday, a more than 25% drop from its October 6 all-time high. It’s roughly flat for 2025.

“Capitulation indicators are flashing. Short-term holder cohorts, those who bought in the last six to twelve months are materially underwater with an average basis near $94,000; realized losses in this group are at levels that historically mark panic peaks,” Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, said.

“A reclaim and hold above $100,000 (and steady ETF inflows) would be the clean path back to structural recovery; failure opens room to $88k–$92k,” he said.

John Glover, CIO at Ledn, expects bitcoin to go even lower, telling Sherwood News that it has now broken down below the 23.6% retracement level, and the loss of this support now confirms that we will test the 38.2% Fibonacci target at $84,000. (Fibonacci retracements “are used to identify potential pullbacks within an existing trend.”)

Meanwhile, bitcoin ETFs recorded a massive $1.1 billion in outflows last week, bringing the total to $2.3 billion leaving the funds in November, trending to surpass the worst monthly outflows of $3.5 billion in February 2025, according to SoSoValue.

Maja Vujinovic, CEO and cofounder of digital assets at FG Nexus, told Sherwood that the exodus is about macro, mechanics, and profit taking.

She said that tech and growth sold off sharply last week, and bitcoin is still traded like a high-beta tech asset by institutions. Meanwhile, hedge fund de-risking is also a driver as a “lot of fast-money players rotated into BTC ETFs for the Q3–Q4 run-up.” Finally, large allocators are trimming positions and some are harvesting tax losses elsewhere while reducing crypto exposure, she said.

Other analysts note that significant outflows are typically among the best indicators that we’re nearing the bottom and a reversal is coming.

“This could even be the last buying opportunity under $100,000 this cycle. However, I would want to see the price rally above $98,000 on strong volume to confirm the reversal is in play. If the volume is low, we could see it rejected in the short term,” Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, told Sherwood.

Perma-bull Michael Saylor, whose company Strategy is increasingly under fire due to its mNAV falling below 1, wasn’t deterred, however. Strategy acquired 8,178 bitcoin for $835.6 million, its largest acquisition since July 29, which brings its stash to 649,870 bitcoin.

“As bitcoin’s price declines, we continue to see compressing mNAV premiums across the bitcoin treasury market. This is to be expected. As market participants reprice risk, capital rotates out of momentum trades, and equity valuations normalize toward the intrinsic value of the underlying BTC holdings rather than speculative forward assumptions,” Brandon Turp, cofounder of BitcoinQuant, told Sherwood.

Sage D. Young21h

Payward, parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, puts plans for IPO on hold

Payward, crypto exchange Kraken’s parent company, has paused its plans for an initial public offering until market conditions improve, according to a report from CoinDesk that cited two people with knowledge of the matter.

Since the firm announced in November its preparation for an IPO of its common stock, the total market capitalization of the crypto industry has shed around $652.2 billion, from $3.2 trillion to $2.5 trillion as of Wednesday, data from CoinGecko shows.

The news comes two weeks after Kraken received approval for a master account from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, allowing the crypto exchange to connect to the Fed’s payment infrastructure used by traditional banks and credit unions.

Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.

Payward, parent of crypto exchange Kraken, has put its IPO plans on hold

Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.

Sage D. Young22h

SEC and CFTC issue new guidance on how securities laws apply to crypto assets

On Tuesday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission, together with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, issued an interpretation clarifying how federal securities law applies to crypto assets, a first step toward developing a clearer regulatory framework.

The interpretive guidance introduces a token taxonomy for different types of cryptocurrencies, with SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins adding that “most crypto assets are not themselves securities.”

Examples of a digital commodity, “a crypto asset that is intrinsically linked to and derives its value from the programmatic operation of a crypto system that is ‘functional,’” include:

Aptos, avalanche, bitcoin, bitcoin cash, cardano, chainlink, dogecoin, ethereum, hedera, litecoin, polkadot, shiba inu, solana, stellar, tezos, and XRP.

The guidance also includes definitions of digital collectibles (such as NFTs), stablecoins, digital tools, and digital securities (such as tokenized real-world assets and stocks).

This is a monumental step in the mainstream adoption of the industry and clears a hurdle in how crypto can operate going forward, according to David Pakman, head of venture investments at CoinFund. “This will allow new token designs with the confidence that their existence does not require registration with the SEC, etc.,” Pakman told Sherwood News.

Despite the clarification efforts from the two organizations, the market capitalization of the crypto industry has dropped about 2% in the last 24 hours as each of the tokens mentioned in the guidance are trading lower in the period, data from CoinGecko shows.

The joint agency action also complements congressional efforts to turn a crypto market structure framework into law. With the goal of providing regulations on the offer and sale of digital commodities, the CLARITY Act passed the House of Representatives last year and is now sitting in the Senate.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

23h

Citi analysts cut 12-month bitcoin projection to $112,000 from $143,000

The analysts’ bear-case scenario is $57,537, based on “recessionary macro-factors, especially weak equity markets,” which could cause ETF flows to stall.

Sage D. Young3/17/26

Bitcoin sees 8 consecutive days of gains, a streak not seen in 4 years

Bitcoin is on a winning streak. The cryptocurrency has generated eight straight days of positive returns, a rare phenomenon that has occurred only 15 times since Satoshi Nakamoto created it, according to a CoinDesk report.

In the 30 days after posting an eight-day streak, bitcoin traded higher nine times and lower six times. The median return in the period is roughly 19%. Despite the historical gains that followed, the last time bitcoin had such a rally, four years ago, it dropped roughly 30%.

Most recently, bitcoin climbed from below $66,000 on March 8 to over $75,000 yesterday before settling around $73,800 on Tuesday morning.

Traders remain modestly bullish on the likelihood of further gains, though the sentiment is fading: prediction market-implied odds of bitcoin trading above $77,500 in the month stand at 54%, a decrease from 73% on Monday.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Bitcoin hits rare 8-day winning streak – but 2022 bear market saw one too

Most recently, bitcoin climbed from below $66,000 on March 8 to over $75,000 yesterday before settling around $73,800 on Tuesday morning.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy3/17/26

Another miner sells its bitcoin

Despite bitcoin being on the rebound, another bitcoin miner sold a chunk of its holdings to further its pivot to AI. In February, Cango, a former automotive service, said it sold 4,451 bitcoin in favor of AI, just a year after becoming a miner. The company said it used the proceeds of the sale to pay down long-term debt and “reduce the overall finance leverage and strengthen the balance sheet,” according to its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings release.

Shares were up 4.5% in premarket trading.

Cango recorded a net loss from continuing operations of $452.8 million in 2025, “primarily due to non-recurring transformation costs and market-driven fair-value adjustments,” it said.

Its “adjusted bitcoin treasury policy” will “provide the financial flexibility needed to navigate volatility and invest in high-potential areas like AI infrastructure,” Cango said.

Bitcoin’s earlier downward trajectory has pressured several miners, which are choosing to pivot to AI and sell their assets or exit the business entirely.

Cango’s move follows Core Scientific, which sold over 1,900 bitcoin for $175 million in January as it shifts even more of its focus to the AI data center boom.

As bitcoin mining economics “have gone from bad to worse,” companies pivot and sell to survive