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Bitcoin soars past $120,000 as analysts predict new all-time high by end of year

Friday’s price is a 97% jump from where bitcoin was a year ago.

10/3/25 11:15AM

bitcoin is up over 10% this week, crossing $120,000 for the first time since its previous all-time high record of over $124,000 on August 14. This is a 97% jump from where bitcoin was a year ago, hovering around $60,700.

John Haar, managing director at Swan Bitcoin, told Sherwood News that bitcoin’s rise this week is due to a confluence of factors, including the government shutdown causing fiscal uncertainty, highlighting the value of assets like bitcoin and gold.

“Over the longer term, with global debt at record highs and fiat currencies under pressure, bitcoin is increasingly seen as a liquid, non-sovereign reserve asset. We’re watching a shift from speculative trades to strategic allocations, and we believe this will push price beyond prior highs,” Haar said.

Analysts are also optimistic about bitcoin’s trajectory.

JPMorgan analysts expect bitcoin to hit $165,000 by year-end, driven by the acceleration of “the debasement trade,” with retail investors rushing to buy both gold and bitcoin ETFs, they said in a note. The debasement trade refers to a slew of macroeconomic factors, including “elevated geopolitical and policy uncertainty,” “waning confidence in fiat currencies in certain emerging markets,” and “persistently high government deficits across major economies,” the analysts wrote.

Meanwhile, Citi analysts gave bitcoin a 12-month price target of $181,000 in a note this week that also gave bitcoin a year-end price target of $132,000.

Finally, Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said the shutdown will be the primary driver of the impending all-time high.

“During the previous Trump shutdown (22 Dec 2018 to 25 Jan 2019) bitcoin was in a different place than now, so it did little. However, this year bitcoin has traded with ‘US government risks’ as best shown by its relationship to US treasury term premium,” he wrote in a note.

Bitcoin ETFs have amassed $2.25 billion in inflows since Monday. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust alone saw $466.5 million in inflows on Thursday, according to SoSoValue data.

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas wrote in a post on X that both IBIT and the SPDR Gold ETF were in the top 10 ETFs by volume Thursday, “which is rare, everyone wants in on The Debaser Trade I guess.”

In other bitcoin news:

MARA Holdings, the second-largest corporate bitcoin holder, increased its holdings to 52,850 bitcoin. In addition, it produced 736 bitcoin in September, a 4% month-over-month increase.
Riot Platforms announced its September production, with 445 bitcoin produced, compared to 477 in August, a 7% month-over-month decrease.
Cango also released its September production update. The bitcoin miner produced 616.6 bitcoin for the month, compared to 663.7 in August, a 7% month-over-month decrease.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

Bitcoin tumbles as oil and gas prices spike and the market’s mood turns risk-off

Bitcoin ETFs reverted to outflows and bitcoin suffered $192 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours.

Sage D. Young3/18/26

Payward, parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, puts plans for IPO on hold

Payward, crypto exchange Kraken’s parent company, has paused its plans for an initial public offering until market conditions improve, according to a report from CoinDesk that cited two people with knowledge of the matter.

Since the firm announced in November its preparation for an IPO of its common stock, the total market capitalization of the crypto industry has shed around $652.2 billion, from $3.2 trillion to $2.5 trillion as of Wednesday, data from CoinGecko shows.

The news comes two weeks after Kraken received approval for a master account from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, allowing the crypto exchange to connect to the Fed’s payment infrastructure used by traditional banks and credit unions.

Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.

Payward, parent of crypto exchange Kraken, has put its IPO plans on hold

Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.

Sage D. Young3/18/26

SEC and CFTC issue new guidance on how securities laws apply to crypto assets

On Tuesday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission, together with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, issued an interpretation clarifying how federal securities law applies to crypto assets, a first step toward developing a clearer regulatory framework.

The interpretive guidance introduces a token taxonomy for different types of cryptocurrencies, with SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins adding that “most crypto assets are not themselves securities.”

Examples of a digital commodity, “a crypto asset that is intrinsically linked to and derives its value from the programmatic operation of a crypto system that is ‘functional,’” include:

Aptos, avalanche, bitcoin, bitcoin cash, cardano, chainlink, dogecoin, ethereum, hedera, litecoin, polkadot, shiba inu, solana, stellar, tezos, and XRP.

The guidance also includes definitions of digital collectibles (such as NFTs), stablecoins, digital tools, and digital securities (such as tokenized real-world assets and stocks).

This is a monumental step in the mainstream adoption of the industry and clears a hurdle in how crypto can operate going forward, according to David Pakman, head of venture investments at CoinFund. “This will allow new token designs with the confidence that their existence does not require registration with the SEC, etc.,” Pakman told Sherwood News.

Despite the clarification efforts from the two organizations, the market capitalization of the crypto industry has dropped about 2% in the last 24 hours as each of the tokens mentioned in the guidance are trading lower in the period, data from CoinGecko shows.

The joint agency action also complements congressional efforts to turn a crypto market structure framework into law. With the goal of providing regulations on the offer and sale of digital commodities, the CLARITY Act passed the House of Representatives last year and is now sitting in the Senate.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

3/18/26

Citi analysts cut 12-month bitcoin projection to $112,000 from $143,000

The analysts’ bear-case scenario is $57,537, based on “recessionary macro-factors, especially weak equity markets,” which could cause ETF flows to stall.

Sage D. Young3/17/26

Bitcoin sees 8 consecutive days of gains, a streak not seen in 4 years

Bitcoin is on a winning streak. The cryptocurrency has generated eight straight days of positive returns, a rare phenomenon that has occurred only 15 times since Satoshi Nakamoto created it, according to a CoinDesk report.

In the 30 days after posting an eight-day streak, bitcoin traded higher nine times and lower six times. The median return in the period is roughly 19%. Despite the historical gains that followed, the last time bitcoin had such a rally, four years ago, it dropped roughly 30%.

Most recently, bitcoin climbed from below $66,000 on March 8 to over $75,000 yesterday before settling around $73,800 on Tuesday morning.

Traders remain modestly bullish on the likelihood of further gains, though the sentiment is fading: prediction market-implied odds of bitcoin trading above $77,500 in the month stand at 54%, a decrease from 73% on Monday.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Bitcoin hits rare 8-day winning streak – but 2022 bear market saw one too