The bitcoin logo adorns socks (Britta Pedersen/Getty Images)

Bitcoin rises as China talks, Fed cut trigger risk appetite

Uptober is back on for bitcoin.

10/27/25 10:38AM

bitcoin reclaimed $115,000 over the weekend and is up 1% in the past 24 hours as optimism over trade talks with China and the impending Fed rate cut decision on Wednesday are buoying market risk appetite.

Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, wrote in a note that the bitcoin-gold ratio is rising, a positive sign, and said that ETF rotation back into bitcoin would further solidify bitcoin’s trajectory.

“Wed-Fri last week saw more than USD2bn leave US gold ETFs. It would be confirmation of a more positive bitcoin backdrop if we had half of that re-enter Bitcoin ETFs Mon-Wed this week,” he wrote.

According to Farzam Ehsani, cofounder and CEO of crypto exchange VALR, the next technical milestone to overcome sits at the $116,000 to $117,000 range, with potential upside targets in the $126,000 to $130,000 range by year-end.

“However, without the broader participation of retail buyers and a resurgence in ETF inflows, the current rally may remain structurally dependent on whales and institutional desks — leaving it vulnerable to sudden profit-taking if the macro narrative falters,” he said.

Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, echoed the sentiment, saying that while macro headlines did the heavy lifting, “the market’s reaction function is now very headline-dependent: good news sparks outsized squeezes; any backtracking could provoke sharp reversals.”

Misir said in a Monday note that a bull trigger would be sustained ETF inflows, while a bear trigger would be a reversal in US-China headlines or a hawkish Fed surprise. As for technical triggers, losing the $108,500 to $110,000 support band with widening liquidations would open a path to the next structural supports near $104,000 to $100,000.

Bitcoin ETFs registered $446.36 million in inflows last week, according to SoSoValue.

In other bitcoin news:

Ahead of its earnings report on Thursday, Strategy acquired 390 bitcoin for $43.4 million and now holds 640,808 bitcoin.
American Bitcoin, the Hut 8 subsidiary backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., acquired 1,414 bitcoin and now holds 3,865 bitcoin. The company began trading on the Nasdaq in September.
While Strive Inc. is having a banner day, the number of bitcoin treasuries valued lower than their bitcoin holdings continues to pile up. BitcoinQuant data shows that the ones with an mNAV below 1 include Metaplanet, Nakamoto, Semler Scientific, ProCap BTC, and BitFuFu.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

Bitcoin tumbles as oil and gas prices spike and the market’s mood turns risk-off

Bitcoin ETFs reverted to outflows and bitcoin suffered $192 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours.

Sage D. Young3/18/26

Payward, parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, puts plans for IPO on hold

Payward, crypto exchange Kraken’s parent company, has paused its plans for an initial public offering until market conditions improve, according to a report from CoinDesk that cited two people with knowledge of the matter.

Since the firm announced in November its preparation for an IPO of its common stock, the total market capitalization of the crypto industry has shed around $652.2 billion, from $3.2 trillion to $2.5 trillion as of Wednesday, data from CoinGecko shows.

The news comes two weeks after Kraken received approval for a master account from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, allowing the crypto exchange to connect to the Fed’s payment infrastructure used by traditional banks and credit unions.

Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.

Payward, parent of crypto exchange Kraken, has put its IPO plans on hold

Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.

Sage D. Young3/18/26

SEC and CFTC issue new guidance on how securities laws apply to crypto assets

On Tuesday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission, together with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, issued an interpretation clarifying how federal securities law applies to crypto assets, a first step toward developing a clearer regulatory framework.

The interpretive guidance introduces a token taxonomy for different types of cryptocurrencies, with SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins adding that “most crypto assets are not themselves securities.”

Examples of a digital commodity, “a crypto asset that is intrinsically linked to and derives its value from the programmatic operation of a crypto system that is ‘functional,’” include:

Aptos, avalanche, bitcoin, bitcoin cash, cardano, chainlink, dogecoin, ethereum, hedera, litecoin, polkadot, shiba inu, solana, stellar, tezos, and XRP.

The guidance also includes definitions of digital collectibles (such as NFTs), stablecoins, digital tools, and digital securities (such as tokenized real-world assets and stocks).

This is a monumental step in the mainstream adoption of the industry and clears a hurdle in how crypto can operate going forward, according to David Pakman, head of venture investments at CoinFund. “This will allow new token designs with the confidence that their existence does not require registration with the SEC, etc.,” Pakman told Sherwood News.

Despite the clarification efforts from the two organizations, the market capitalization of the crypto industry has dropped about 2% in the last 24 hours as each of the tokens mentioned in the guidance are trading lower in the period, data from CoinGecko shows.

The joint agency action also complements congressional efforts to turn a crypto market structure framework into law. With the goal of providing regulations on the offer and sale of digital commodities, the CLARITY Act passed the House of Representatives last year and is now sitting in the Senate.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

3/18/26

Citi analysts cut 12-month bitcoin projection to $112,000 from $143,000

The analysts’ bear-case scenario is $57,537, based on “recessionary macro-factors, especially weak equity markets,” which could cause ETF flows to stall.

Sage D. Young3/17/26

Bitcoin sees 8 consecutive days of gains, a streak not seen in 4 years

Bitcoin is on a winning streak. The cryptocurrency has generated eight straight days of positive returns, a rare phenomenon that has occurred only 15 times since Satoshi Nakamoto created it, according to a CoinDesk report.

In the 30 days after posting an eight-day streak, bitcoin traded higher nine times and lower six times. The median return in the period is roughly 19%. Despite the historical gains that followed, the last time bitcoin had such a rally, four years ago, it dropped roughly 30%.

Most recently, bitcoin climbed from below $66,000 on March 8 to over $75,000 yesterday before settling around $73,800 on Tuesday morning.

Traders remain modestly bullish on the likelihood of further gains, though the sentiment is fading: prediction market-implied odds of bitcoin trading above $77,500 in the month stand at 54%, a decrease from 73% on Monday.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Bitcoin hits rare 8-day winning streak – but 2022 bear market saw one too