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Bitcoin lifts following Trump’s “great progress” comments, may break 5-month losing streak

“Under the surface, the market is not broken, though it is still thin.”

20h

Bitcoin saw a small bump on Monday morning, rising along with the broader market, following President Trump’s comments that “great progress has been made” in discussion with Iran, while also posting that if no deal is reached about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the US would “completely obliterate” Iran’s energy infrastructure and Kharg Island.

Bitcoin crossed $68,000 early Monday morning and is up 1% in March. With one day to go, it could now close the month in the green, breaking its five-month losing streak, CoinGlass data shows.

Still, the overall sentiment is cautious, as macro and geopolitical factors remain key drivers of bitcoin’s price, at least in the short term.

Sidrah Fariq, global head of retail at Deribit, told Sherwood News that markets remain uncertain amid mixed signals from the Trump administration regarding the situation in Iran. In turn, she said, investor reaction has been cautious and fragmented.

“BTC is still awaiting a clear catalyst to break through the 80K level. On Deribit, put premium continues to trade richer than calls across tenors, reflecting persistent demand for downside protection. Dealer gamma remains positive in the 65K-70K range, suggesting dealers are likely to buy dips and sell rallies, keeping price action relatively range-bound,” Fariq said, adding that markets will remain choppy in the $65,000 to $74,000 range. If we get to a ceasefire, bitcoin could rip higher.

For now, though, bitcoin is marching to the beat of the news and is stuck in the tight range it’s been trading in for weeks, with no extreme movement in either direction.

Danny Nelson, a research analyst at Bitwise, told Sherwood that while bitcoin has performed well since the start of the conflict (up nearly 1%, while the S&P 500 is down over 6%), its intraday price moves with the news.

Nelson said that when Trump threatened to bomb Iranian power plants on March 21, bitcoin immediately fell 2.6% — and when he walked back the threat on March 23, it jumped 4%.

“If this war escalates and shipping through not only Hormuz but also the Suez Canal (which Iranian-backed Houthis can threaten) halts, it could trigger a recession. This worst-case scenario dampens the market for risk-on assets, like bitcoin. It makes establishing a base above $70K much harder. This dynamic will weigh on bitcoin until the war recedes,” Nelson said.

Stephen Wundke, strategy and revenue director at Algoz, agreed, telling Sherwood that given the global uncertainty around the Iran war and the effects of oil and gas shortages, it is impossible to see big gains for BTC.

“Currently, the macro conditions make that very difficult. On the positive side, BTC retested recent lows and found a way to bounce. However, trading volumes are so thin that moves may be slightly more exaggerated than normal,” Wundke said.

Meanwhile, bitcoin ETFs registered their first weekly outflow since the war began, with a $296.1 million exodus last week, according to SoSoValue.

“That matters because ETF demand had been carrying part of the recovery narrative. A reversal here shifts the burden back onto spot demand and short-covering,” Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, said. Misir added that one week of outflows does not define a trend.

“Two or three would. For now, bitcoin still has room to rebound if macro stress eases, but the market needs stronger spot demand to turn a tactical bounce into a durable recovery,” he said.

At the same time, bitcoin ETFs are also set to close the month with $1.1 billion in inflows, their first monthly inflow since October 2025. While this volume is a far cry from the bombastic $3 billion to $6 billion monthly inflows of the past, it does reflect renewed (yet subdued) institutional interest.

As Misir put it, the crypto tape is telling a cautious story and “macro is still in command.”

“Under the surface, the market is not broken, though it is still thin. Bitcoin sits at the lower bound of the $60K–$70K new-buyer cost basis range, where supply accumulation is visible but still lighter than the stronger bases seen before prior durable recoveries. That makes the setup constructive in shape, not yet in depth,” Misir said.

Sage D. Young18h

Ethereum looks likely to register first monthly green candle since August

Ethereum has increased nearly 4% in the last 24 hours, outpacing crypto majors in the period.

If the asset can hold the current level, trading around $2,065, ethereum will record its first monthly green candle since August, helping the token outperform the broader market slump during the Iran War.

Amid the news, BitMine Immersion Technologies, the largest ethereum treasury firm and largest staking entity, announced acquiring 71,179 tokens, or $146.3 million, in the past week.

“Crypto is demonstrating itself to be a good ‘war time’ store of value,” BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said in a press release.

“The inverse correlation of crypto (and equities) to oil has been increasing and is at the highest levels in the past year. This is logical. Until equity markets become comfortable with the future trajectory of oil prices, rising oil is a headwind for equities and crypto. And in a sense, the crypto winter likely ends when the upside risk to oil prices peaks,” Lee continued.

Meanwhile, ethereum ETFs suffered last week, with the investment vehicles registering $206.6 million in outflows, the third-most in the year, data from SoSoValue shows.

In other ethereum news:

The Ethereum Foundation staked around $46.2 million worth of ethereum on Monday, according to on-chain data. “This is more ETH than they have EVER staked before,” Arkham Intelligence said on social media.
Lido, the second-largest decentralized finance protocol and known for its liquid staking services, primarily for ethereum, is considering a $20 million buyback for its native token, LDO, which has plummeted nearly 96% since its all-time high of $7.30 set in 2021.

Sage D. Young3/27/26

Altcoins have given back the majority of their gains since the Iran war began

While crypto altcoins outperformed for a long stretch after the outbreak of the US war with Iran, the asset class has retraced this past week.

XRP, solana, and ethereum have each dropped more than 6% in the past seven days as the total market capitalization for all of crypto (including bitcoin) has shed roughly $44 billion in the period, per CoinGecko.

Ethereum ETFs have also registered daily consecutive outflows for the past seven days, totaling more than $392.1 million. The last time these investment vehicles had such a streak was in December when ethereum decreased from $3,221 to $2,995, data from SoSoValue shows.

The Iran war was at first a positioning shock that saw crypto thrive, in part because the asset class was “lightly owned,” according to Fredrick Collins, CEO of crypto analytics platform Velo.xyz.

“Now as more concrete and persistent concerns about economic impacts have materialized, it’s not surprising to see crypto struggling as well,” Collins told Sherwood News. “In the face of cyclical (rather than transient) worries for risk assets in general, it’s not realistic to expect crypto to remain unscathed. And so we’ve unfortunately just not seen that initial relative strength in crypto continue to play out.”

Meanwhile, traders are expecting the price of ethereum to decline further this year. Prediction market-implied odds of the cryptocurrency sliding below $1,750 are at 81%, while the probability of the token tumbling under $1,500 stands at 68%, an increase from 52% on Monday.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

A drop to $1,457 would liquidate about 162,870 ethereum tokens’ worth of leveraged long positions, worth $323.3 million on Hyperliquid, per CoinGlass.

Slater Santer, a research analyst at trading firm GSR said, "Short term, the market likely remains flow-driven and headline-sensitive. Without a stabilization in ETF flows, a cooling in oil, or a renewed bid in equities, it's hard to argue for a sustained bounce in alts."

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

3/27/26

Bitcoin falls below $66,000 as Trump’s Iran extension fails to boost market sentiment

Bitcoin is on track to book its sixth consecutive month in the red.

Sage D. Young3/26/26

For the first time, Fannie Mae will allow mortgages to be backed by crypto

Fannie Mae, the government-backed mortgage finance giant, will start accepting mortgages backed by cryptocurrencies — namely bitcoin and Circle’s stablecoin, USDC.

Mortgage firm Better Home & Finance and US-based crypto exchange Coinbase Global are rolling out a new product that enables prospective homebuyers to pledge their digital assets as down payment collateral when obtaining a mortgage backed by Fannie Mae, The Wall Street Journal reported.

This means homebuyers can secure a standard conforming mortgage without liquidating tokenized assets, which potentially triggers a taxable event.

“If BTC drops in value, the mortgage terms remain unchanged, and no additional collateral is required. Market movements alone never trigger liquidation,” per a joint press release from Better and Coinbase.

“Token-backed mortgages originated by Better are designed in accordance with Fannie Mae guidelines and remain as standard conforming mortgage loans, identical to other conforming mortgages,” the announcement continued.

Max Branzburg, head of consumer and business products at Coinbase, said, “Token-backed mortgages are a major first step to unlocking homeownership for the younger generations that have struggled with barriers to saving for a traditional downpayment.”

The announcement comes more than nine months after William Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Agency, ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prepare a proposal that considers cryptocurrency as a reserve asset in single-family mortgage loan risk assessment.