Bitcoin jumps to 3-week high on Iran ceasefire announcement
Whether the rally is sustainable remains to be seen, but at the $71,000 level, bitcoin is back at the critical resistance level it’s been attempting to break for the past few months.
Bitcoin finally got the break it’s been yearning for, jumping up 5% to a three-week high following the ceasefire announced Tuesday evening. The asset crossed $72,000 Wednesday morning before dropping back to the $71,000 as US markets opened.
“Bitcoin moving back toward 71K, in our view, isn’t the move — it’s the signal. It’s the early stages of the market beginning to price in what could be the next major liquidity cycle flowing into digital assets,” said Connor McLaughlin, head of enterprise at Digital Ascension Group.
However, whether this rally is sustainable remains to be seen, and overall sentiment is optimistic yet cautious.
Pratik Kala, portfolio manager and head of research at Apollo Crypto, said the words like “workable” and “close to resolution” that Trump used in his Truth Social post, referring to the 10-point proposal from Iran, “are very bullish.”
“Markets look forward, bitcoin was coiled, and I think we can continue a multi-week rally. 72K first target, then 78K by the end of the month possible,” Kala said.
Yet others are pointing to the fragile nature of the truce, which hinges in part on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and could still add volatility to bitcoin.
Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, told Sherwood News that at $71,000, bitcoin is back at the critical resistance level it’s been attempting to meaningfully break for the past few months.
“If it closes the week above this level, institutional positioning could turn this resistance level into support,” he said, adding that it could set the stage for further upward movement, potentially pushing bitcoin toward $90,000 over the coming months.
“However, it’s important to note that the ceasefire doesn’t fix the damage in markets overnight, and it’s only one of the many factors driving sentiment and price for bitcoin,” Puckrin said. “For now, the recovery is fragile.”
Meanwhile, bitcoin ETFs reverted to outflows Tuesday, with a $159 million exodus, according to SoSoValue. But so far in April, bitcoin ETFs remain in the green.
Justin D’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Capital, told Sherwood that continuing ETF inflows give him hope, “but it is kept in check by a broader risk-off sentiment.”
“I suspect many will look back at this level not necessarily as the cycle’s bottom, but as a place that long-term investors were happy to average in. For now, all eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz and any catalysts one way or the other,” D’Anethan said.
Rajiv Sawhney, head of international portfolio management at Wave Digital Asset, also noted that while there is “decent buying from institutions on the ETF side,” from iShares Bitcoin Trust and others, there hasn’t been a material recovery in offshore exchange spot volumes and funding/basis in the market, which “would indicate that investors are willing to take on material risk for a higher recovery.”
In addition, Sawhney said that in the options space, there is a massive positive gamma wall from current levels up to $85,000 to $100,000.
“This will continue to keep bitcoin locked within the range for the foreseeable future, as dealers will sell into strength to remain delta-neutral, limiting bitcoin’s ability to sustain higher momentum,” Sawhney said.
