A deflated bitcoin balloon (Getty Images)

Desperately Seeking Uptober

Bitcoin drops below $110,000, while treasuries slow down acquisitions

Glassnode analysts wrote that “the market is in a reset phase.”

10/16/25 10:40AM

Bitcoin is struggling to regain ground, and dropped below $110,000 early Thursday morning. The asset is down roughly 10% in the past week and 11.5% since its October 6 all-time high of just over $126,000. Tariff battles coupled with domestic and geopolitical uncertainty continue to put pressure on bitcoin, almost a week after the historic $19 billion wipeout.

Glassnode analysts wrote that, coupled with weak bitcoin ETF inflows and acute volatility, “the market is in a reset phase, characterized by flushed leverage, cautious sentiment, and recovery hinging on renewed demand.”

They continued, “Without a renewed catalyst to lift prices back above $117.1k, the market risks deeper contraction toward the lower boundary of this range.”

Bitcoin ETFs are also suffering and saw $104.1 million in outflows on Wednesday, while digital asset treasuries (DATs) are seeing a significant slowdown of bitcoin acquisitions.

CoinDesk reported that the seven-day moving average of net daily inflows into bitcoin DATs “recently dropped to 140 BTC, marking the lowest level since mid-June and a sharp decline from a July peak of 8,249 BTC.”

The latest two bitcoin acquisitions from Strategy, which with 640,250 bitcoin is the largest corporate bitcoin holder, were some of the smallest ones since it started accumulating bitcoin: 220 and 196 bitcoin.

DATs’ total bitcoin holdings have now crossed the 1 million mark, with 91% held in US companies. The holdings also represent almost 5% of the total supply. In a prescient August note, “How DATs die,” NYDIG flagged some warning signs.

“Where a DAT gets into trouble is when it cannot generate and sustain a sufficient premium to NAV [net asset value] — it loses its main avenue to increase its crypto per share. How does this happen? Either it fails to generate sufficient memetic premium or investors sell shares, forcing the premium to NAV to collapse,” according to NYDIG.

Indeed, following Nakamoto and several other DATs, Metaplanet is the latest one whose NAV has dropped below 1, as its enterprise value fell below its bitcoin holdings.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

Bitcoin tumbles as oil and gas prices spike and the market’s mood turns risk-off

Bitcoin ETFs reverted to outflows and bitcoin suffered $192 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours.

Sage D. Young3/18/26

Payward, parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, puts plans for IPO on hold

Payward, crypto exchange Kraken’s parent company, has paused its plans for an initial public offering until market conditions improve, according to a report from CoinDesk that cited two people with knowledge of the matter.

Since the firm announced in November its preparation for an IPO of its common stock, the total market capitalization of the crypto industry has shed around $652.2 billion, from $3.2 trillion to $2.5 trillion as of Wednesday, data from CoinGecko shows.

The news comes two weeks after Kraken received approval for a master account from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, allowing the crypto exchange to connect to the Fed’s payment infrastructure used by traditional banks and credit unions.

Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.

Payward, parent of crypto exchange Kraken, has put its IPO plans on hold

Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.

Sage D. Young3/18/26

SEC and CFTC issue new guidance on how securities laws apply to crypto assets

On Tuesday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission, together with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, issued an interpretation clarifying how federal securities law applies to crypto assets, a first step toward developing a clearer regulatory framework.

The interpretive guidance introduces a token taxonomy for different types of cryptocurrencies, with SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins adding that “most crypto assets are not themselves securities.”

Examples of a digital commodity, “a crypto asset that is intrinsically linked to and derives its value from the programmatic operation of a crypto system that is ‘functional,’” include:

Aptos, avalanche, bitcoin, bitcoin cash, cardano, chainlink, dogecoin, ethereum, hedera, litecoin, polkadot, shiba inu, solana, stellar, tezos, and XRP.

The guidance also includes definitions of digital collectibles (such as NFTs), stablecoins, digital tools, and digital securities (such as tokenized real-world assets and stocks).

This is a monumental step in the mainstream adoption of the industry and clears a hurdle in how crypto can operate going forward, according to David Pakman, head of venture investments at CoinFund. “This will allow new token designs with the confidence that their existence does not require registration with the SEC, etc.,” Pakman told Sherwood News.

Despite the clarification efforts from the two organizations, the market capitalization of the crypto industry has dropped about 2% in the last 24 hours as each of the tokens mentioned in the guidance are trading lower in the period, data from CoinGecko shows.

The joint agency action also complements congressional efforts to turn a crypto market structure framework into law. With the goal of providing regulations on the offer and sale of digital commodities, the CLARITY Act passed the House of Representatives last year and is now sitting in the Senate.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

3/18/26

Citi analysts cut 12-month bitcoin projection to $112,000 from $143,000

The analysts’ bear-case scenario is $57,537, based on “recessionary macro-factors, especially weak equity markets,” which could cause ETF flows to stall.

Sage D. Young3/17/26

Bitcoin sees 8 consecutive days of gains, a streak not seen in 4 years

Bitcoin is on a winning streak. The cryptocurrency has generated eight straight days of positive returns, a rare phenomenon that has occurred only 15 times since Satoshi Nakamoto created it, according to a CoinDesk report.

In the 30 days after posting an eight-day streak, bitcoin traded higher nine times and lower six times. The median return in the period is roughly 19%. Despite the historical gains that followed, the last time bitcoin had such a rally, four years ago, it dropped roughly 30%.

Most recently, bitcoin climbed from below $66,000 on March 8 to over $75,000 yesterday before settling around $73,800 on Tuesday morning.

Traders remain modestly bullish on the likelihood of further gains, though the sentiment is fading: prediction market-implied odds of bitcoin trading above $77,500 in the month stand at 54%, a decrease from 73% on Monday.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Bitcoin hits rare 8-day winning streak – but 2022 bear market saw one too