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ROASTED ☕

With operating profit down 45%, the “Back to Starbucks” plans aren’t bearing any fruit yet

Brian Niccol has a tough gig on his hands, with Starbucks shares dropping sharply after a weak quarter.

Starbucks is promising a four-minute wait time for customers to get their grande latte, but investors might have to wait longer for the coffee giant to deliver the results they were hoping for when Brian Niccol took the top job at Starbucks in September.

The world’s largest coffee chain posted a 45% decline in quarterly operating income yesterday, its fifth straight quarter of declining same-store sales, with SBUX shares opening down 10% in premarket trading this morning.

Starbucks Op profit
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Since being poached in September for his star-studded track record at Chipotle, CEO Brian Niccol has been brewing a bold turnaround strategy to reverse Starbucks’ yearlong sales slump. So far, that “Back to Starbucks” plan has involved writing names on to-go cups, bringing back ceramic mugs, and requiring a purchase for customers to loiter in stores. 

But the investment is coming at a cost: while Niccol touted some “real momentum” with his magnum opus on Tuesday, Starbucks also said the additional labor poured to support the plan is grinding down on the coffee giant’s profitability — an expense that the chain is seemingly willing to double down on, with plans to hire even more baristas.

Double shot

Starbucks’ slumping profitability, down to become the worst non-Covid quarter in more than a decade, is another bitter shot of disappointment for the already struggling coffee chain, which has been juggling weak consumer spending and skyrocketing costs of coffee beans (thanks to a certain Diet Coke enthusiast) domestically while being squeezed out by strong competitors in China — a region that had been the Starbucks growth engine for much of the last two decades.

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OpenAI’s ARR reached over $20 billion in 2025, CFO says

Sam Altman’s $500 billion artificial intelligence behemoth hit a major financial milestone last year, according to a new blog post over the weekend from OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar, as the company confirmed it had hit a more than $20 billion annual revenue run rate at the end of 2025.

Elsewhere in the blog post, Friar spent time addressing the company’s shifting goals, referencing plans to “close the distance between where intelligence is advancing and how individuals, companies, and countries actually adopt and use it.” As has become customary in the AI company press release genre, the CFO was also keen to tout the unending growth of the business, writing:

  • Both our Weekly Active User (WAU) and Daily Active User (DAU) figures continue to produce all-time highs. This growth is driven by a flywheel across compute, frontier research, products, and monetization.

  • Compute grew 3X year over year or 9.5X from 2023 to 2025: 0.2 GW in 2023, 0.6 GW in 2024, and ~1.9 GW in 2025.

And, perhaps most importantly for current backers and those keeping an eye on the private company before its rumored mega IPO:

  • Revenue followed the same curve growing 3X year over year, or 10X from 2023 to 2025: $2B ARR in 2023, $6B in 2024, and $20B+ in 2025. This is never-before-seen growth at such scale.

That latest figure has certainly set tongues in the tech world wagging, just as the company announced it would begin rolling out ads to free and ChatGPT Go users. It also puts the chatbot giant a fair way ahead of competitors like Anthropic, the company behind Claude.

OpenAI Anthropic ARR race
Sherwood News

Elsewhere in the blog post, Friar spent time addressing the company’s shifting goals, referencing plans to “close the distance between where intelligence is advancing and how individuals, companies, and countries actually adopt and use it.” As has become customary in the AI company press release genre, the CFO was also keen to tout the unending growth of the business, writing:

  • Both our Weekly Active User (WAU) and Daily Active User (DAU) figures continue to produce all-time highs. This growth is driven by a flywheel across compute, frontier research, products, and monetization.

  • Compute grew 3X year over year or 9.5X from 2023 to 2025: 0.2 GW in 2023, 0.6 GW in 2024, and ~1.9 GW in 2025.

And, perhaps most importantly for current backers and those keeping an eye on the private company before its rumored mega IPO:

  • Revenue followed the same curve growing 3X year over year, or 10X from 2023 to 2025: $2B ARR in 2023, $6B in 2024, and $20B+ in 2025. This is never-before-seen growth at such scale.

That latest figure has certainly set tongues in the tech world wagging, just as the company announced it would begin rolling out ads to free and ChatGPT Go users. It also puts the chatbot giant a fair way ahead of competitors like Anthropic, the company behind Claude.

OpenAI Anthropic ARR race
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