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What does the end of the $7,500 federal tax credit mean for Tesla’s finances?

Analyst Troy Teslike estimates what will happen to Tesla’s top and bottom lines in several different scenarios.

8/11/25 11:21AM

When the $7,500 federal EV tax credit ends in September, Tesla will have some tough decisions to make, having to choose between denting sales or its bottom line. Now we have an idea of just how damaging that could be.

An analyst who goes by the name Troy Teslike recently modeled what Tesla’s finances for Q4 — the first quarter without the credit — might look like, depending on whether or how much Tesla lowers its prices.

If Tesla keeps prices as they are without the discount, effectively raising the price for buyers by $7,500 (scenario No. 1), he says Tesla could see its US sales plunge 37%, but the company’s gross margins would fall only to 13% and its earnings per share to $0.16 (down from 15% and $0.33 in Q2 2025, respectively).

The other end of the spectrum (scenario No. 8) would be if Tesla ate the $7,500 credit, keeping prices the same for consumers. In that case, Teslike estimates that deliveries wouldn’t drop, but the company’s margins and earnings would decline substantially to 8.1% and $0.03, respectively — barely a profit at all.

Teslike suspects the EV company will probably pick somewhere in the middle and cut the price for consumers by about $2,500.

Here’s what each of those scenarios would look like:

Nia Warfield

14h

Fox and News Corp slide as investors digest $3.3 billion Murdoch succession settlement

Fox and News Corp shares dropped on Tuesday after Rupert Murdoch’s heirs agreed to a $3.3 billion settlement to resolve a long-running succession drama.

Under the deal, Prudence, Elisabeth, and James Murdoch will each receive about $1.1 billion, paid for in part by Fox selling 16.9 million Class B voting shares and News Corp selling 14.2 million shares. The stock sales will raise roughly $1.37 billion on behalf of the three heirs.

The new trust for Lachlan Murdoch will now control about 36.2% of Fox’s Class B shares and roughly 33.1% of News Corp’s stock, granting him uncontested voting authority over both companies for the next 25 years. Originally, the Murdoch trust was designed to hand over voting control of Fox and News Corp to Prudence, Elisabeth, Lachlan, and James after his death.

Investors are weighing the trade-off. Clear leadership under Lachlan may resolve conflict internally, but the share dilution, executed at a roughly 4.5% discount, means long-term investors now hold slightly less clout than before.

Both companies’ stocks were trading close to all-time highs prior to the announcement.

385 ✈️ 434

Max Knoblauch

14h

Boeing on Tuesday announced that it delivered 57 commercial jets in August, its best total for the month in seven years. That brings its year-to-date delivery total to 385 planes, eclipsing its full-year 2024 figure by about 11%.

The August figure marked Boeing’s second-highest delivery total of 2025 and represented a 43% jump from the same month last year. Through August, Boeing has boosted its deliveries by 50% from last year.

The plane maker is still trailing its European rival Airbus, which delivered 61 planes in August and 434 year to date.

Nia Warfield

9/8/25

Tariffs finally crept into retail's latest earnings results. Who were the winners and losers?

The long-awaited levies took a toll on nearly every retailer, but execution separated who could steer through the costs.