China has a bit of a population problem, but it might not be what you expect.
A scoop from the Financial Times reports that China is set to announce its first population drop in five decades — meaning that China's population has peaked well ahead of previous expert forecasts from the UN (shown in the chart above).
UN forecasts had China's population beginning to fall in the late 2020s, but the leaked census data — which has not yet been made public and is said to be very sensitive for Chinese officials — suggests that the relaxation of the controversial one-child policy in 2015 has done little to re-invigorate a baby boom.
Isn't this a good thing?
As we've written before, whenever birth rates are unusually high or low, countries end up with really different sized generations. That's not too bad on the way up (lots of young people), but if things reverse you get a top-heavy demography, with young people having to support a greater number of older people.
Taking the super long-term view, fewer people consuming resources obviously puts less stress and strain on our planet, which is a good thing — but that doesn't make it easy for China (or any other country) to plan for an ageing population.
